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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 17:27:23 GMT -5
wed. march 19th gulfstream I had a few different options here. I like the nine in the 6th, but its a cheap race and inconsistency abound. I like the one in the 8th race if he can shake clear of the 7 early, but the price wont be great. I also like the nine in the 9th race as I cant envision any one keeping up with him early again like last time. its the same field he just beat last time except for a couple who don't look like they have the speed to go with him either. I do like a couple others in there as well though so im not going to make him th BB either. I will go with RACE !0 #9 angels south he's consistently better then these on numbers other then maybe the #2 who is making a bad barn change and been regressing, and the #11 who is just a tad behind her. she has speed but doesn't need the lead to win I don't think. there is other speed signed up for the race in the #2, but I already said I think that one is going the wrong way and may not even send for the new barn. the only other speed looks to be the #3 and the #8, both of whom just look overmatched to me. I think the #9's biggest danger is the #11 who is consistent and should get a decent pace to run at. but I think the nine will tough on the drop in class. Interesting, I had similar thoughts in those three races. In the 8th the 1 wasn't able to shake free from the 7 until mid-stretch, then got caught by the 3 which was bet down to 5-2 (I didn't like that one at all) In the 9th I liked the 3, 4, and 9 - boxed them in the exacta and bet the 4 to WP. Exacta was 9-4 for $31 and the place price for the 4 was $6.60. The three got beat at the wire for third - glad I didn't bet the trifecta! I thought the 4 would have been a little further back earlier in the race. In the 10th I also liked the 9 - another horse pressed throughout (like the 1 in the 8th) by the 11. And again the 9 got caught at the wire. As I like say, "nibbling around the edges" most of the day. I only had one winner but a couple of exactas and place prices kept me close. My two "best bets" both finished far back. At least the longer priced horse was in the hunt until the stretch. No one was going to beat that 2 horse in the first race.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 18:13:30 GMT -5
and btw, to follow up on the conversation in the other thread............the #2 horse in the last race was the "worst trainer change of all time" horse. go back and watch his race and tell me how well he ran or how impressive he was. he sat on the rail behind a four horse across the track duel, saved all the ground, got the moses trip up the rail on the turn, and stunk to high heaven in the lane, beating two horses who were distanced!! this is a horse whose last 6 races when trained by an actual trainer, were 6-4-1-1 against equal or better competition. now he shows up for this 1 for 50 trainer and he looks like he needs chemotherapy on the far turn. but I guess as long as your "old school" that stuff doesn't matter.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2014 11:52:41 GMT -5
Monday
No picks
Tuesday
No picks
Wednesday
wiz – Gulfstream - Race 10 #9 Angels South - 2nd George - Gulfstream - Race 4 #5 Fort Boonesborough - out
Complete Summary:
GF 7-1-3-1 $14.00 $ 3.60 -$10.40 wiz 8-5-2-0 $16.00 $52.00 +$36.00 George 9-2-2-2 $18.00 $10.80 -$ 7.20 CK 2-0-0-0 $ 4.00 $ 0.00 -$ 4.00 Evelyn 1-0-0-0 $ 2.00 $ 0.00 -$ 2.00 Byanose 2-1-0-0 $ 4.00 $ 6.00 +$ 4.00 Teenage 1-0-0-0 $ 2.00 $ 0.00 -$ 2.00
Total 30-9-7-3 $60.00 $72.40 +$12.40
Win - 30% ITM - 63%
Hope I have all the numbers correct now.
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Post by canterburykid on Mar 21, 2014 11:57:12 GMT -5
3/21 Oaklawn race 8
DRF race of the day # 8 Heliskier, Top beyer in field w/101 in last 2 & carrying career light @ 115 lbs.Skier has history of firing after lay-off. Must admit, a bit bias on this guy 2x MN HOY leaving many saying best MN bred ever. I'll tread lightly @ 2-1, However spoke w/owner Marlene Colvin over a week ago & she stated trainer Mac Robertson has him ready to go & just looking for the right conditions. Some speed signed up, including nations top barn in Midwest thoroughbreds,leaning "Skier" lays just off the top spd & when this winning machine turns for home hes got another gear and is all business, wins going away. Free pp's in DRF as race of the day race time 4:45 pm central.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 12:40:28 GMT -5
Not the place for this, but in the 2nd at Aqueduct, Irad and Jose - both 6-5. Who won the coin toss in the jockey's room?
BTW, good luck kid. Hope he runs well.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 13:43:02 GMT -5
Friday, march 21st
gulfstream
thaeres a couple tough races here but also a couple solid plays. I think the #9 winters gift in race 6 is solid. but he will be a short price so im not gonna use him as my best bet. I do like 9 over 158 in there, pressing the 8. I like a longshot, a heavy chalk, and a first timer in the 7th, but none of them enough to call a best bet. I will be taking a shot with the #4 horse however pekinesa. completely stiffed first time out. don't know if she has ny talent or not, but adding blinkers dropping, and shortening up, along with the decent work since make me think this is where she will show it if there is any gas in the tank. #2 horse probably is the horse to beat off the layoff, but will be odds on. and the @6 mary n Eileen has decent works for her debut. I will be boxing 4-2 and 4-6 and betting th 4 to wp, but no best bet.
I will go with RACE 10 as my best bet
#7 hit squad. 20-1 ml
im sure he will get hammered as I envisioned he would be about 4-1 in here. I like the 7-10-11 box a lot in here. playing them over 259 in the tris. squad comes out of the same race as a couole in here and was absolutely loaded when he got sawed off in the stretch in his last and took up bad. he was winning that race, mark my words. now im not sure how strong that race was compared to the race the 11 comes out of, but I do know that the winner and squad were tons the best in there. I like the 11 also for the exotics, but will definitely be betting squad if hes 4-1 or higher.
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Post by canterburykid on Mar 21, 2014 15:05:23 GMT -5
Not the place for this, but in the 2nd at Aqueduct, Irad and Jose - both 6-5. Who won the coin toss in the jockey's room? BTW, good luck kid. Hope he runs well. Thanks Geo appreciate it
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 15:11:48 GMT -5
I had a couple of "best bets" earlier in the cards - one at Aqueduct and one at Gulfstream, but sort of gun shy because they both were low prices and were open to "BFD"s. The only bettable race later in the Gulfstream card is that 10th race, the 7 looks good (watched the race, he would have won or been a close second if he wasn't cut off badly). Since the winner got that 84 Beyer with a perfect trip outside, that would give Hit Squad a similar, which should win the race if she repeats it. So that I won't step on you, I'll make my best bet in the 8th at Aqueduct Aqueduct Race 8 #2 Dee Dee's Comet This is a NYB $30K NW2X optional claimer. Just about all the horses in the race have been running in similar races, $30-35K, except for Dee Dee's Comet and the probable favorite, Your Time Is Up, who has won 3 in a row - that was an open $50 Starter Allowance. Your Time Is UP had a perfect trip at 5-1/2 F, laying right off the lead, opened more than a length lead in the stretch then was all out to hold on by a neck. Dee Dee's Comet was far back, fanned 6 wide into the stretch and closed about 3-1/2 lengths on the winner, finishing 4th by only 3/4. There will be lots of pressure on the leading horses and they're going a sixteenth further. After three straight wins, I think we can say to the 4 horse, "your time is up". Hopefully the 2 won't have to go as wide into the stretch and can get up past the tiring leaders. ML is 8-1, she'll probably be somewhere around that. PS - was going to go with the 3 horse in the 8th at Gulfstream, who opened up at 1-2 with the 3 for 103 Braddy!!!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 15:25:11 GMT -5
I played all in the 8th race on mt pick five and four tickets. I wouldn't touch that horse with a 10 foot pole. I mean he could definitely win, but I wont be betting on him.. really doent matter much. im only alive on one p4 ticket. everything else just died in the seventh. I needed my 4 horse pekinesa to hold on at 12-1. I had the exacta but missed the tri like an idiot to a horse I have played a few times in the 5 fantastic voyage. that pissed me off.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 16:01:13 GMT -5
Well now he's 3 for 104 according to brisnet, DRF has it at 1 for 51.
As expected time was up for Your Time Is Up. Dee Dee's Comet got bumped coming out of the gate and was further back than expected. She made her big move on the turn, passing most of the horses and was within about a length of the leader mid-stretch, the ultimate winner. That horse got the early jump and and easy lead. Dee Dee's Comet ultimately hung and got re-passed by two horses that she passed on the turn - 4th at 9-1. Another loser!
Now looking forward to that 10th at Gulfstream.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 16:03:23 GMT -5
but hey hes 14% 30 years ago!!!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 16:20:24 GMT -5
WTF? Hit Squad opened at 2-1!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 16:30:55 GMT -5
he will drift. hes a big price stil in the p4. probably be around 8 or 9 to one
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 20:13:51 GMT -5
how was that for a bad beat? same spot jackoff bravo got him in last time. meanwhile the time he took him 5 wide he won by 4 lengths. gee, can you think joe?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 22:19:38 GMT -5
That really was one of the worst rides I've seen in a long time - outside/inside/outside - lots of horse but didn't know where to go, and to add insult to injury the horse lost by only a neck? Bravo used to be very good, but I think he's overthinking and riding scared these days.
Maybe we should change the thread's name to "Best Beat of the Day"??
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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2014 22:39:57 GMT -5
yeah I know. I did still nail the exacta and tri, and had the pick four twice. I needed the 4 in the seventh though. she was 13-1 insead of 7-1 like the winner and I would have had it 6 times instead of twice. still did good for the day though.
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Post by canterburykid on Mar 22, 2014 10:02:22 GMT -5
3/22 Turfway R9) # 5 Gunderson 2 for 2 over track, front runner climbing spd figs. w/ trainer who knows how to place'em in Maker, while dropping a handful from last 2 previous- Wire to wire M/L 5-1
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2014 10:04:55 GMT -5
I post the next summary after today's races are over.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2014 15:16:53 GMT -5
no time to explain why.
gulfstream race 8
#1 everything matters
I like 1 with 56712 screw the first timers
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2014 15:57:39 GMT -5
ive said it before and I will say it again. more then any other reason, this is why I hat easy coast racing. firt time starters and their workout info. I these fucing training center bullshit workouts. I complained about this before and someone told me I was crazy (gee I wonder who) and that there were only 1 or 2 places and asked me to name them. well I cant remember all of them but I have counted at least 7 in the last 2 weeks of playing gulfstream where horses have worked at non racetracks. PAY, PRM, OEC, PBD, ETC. PBD? wtf is that, peanut butter downs? and then horses who only show up to 4f works with 2 and 3 week gaps winning first time out in route races? im not saying this one did that, but a lot of them do, so what do you do? its a F*ing joke you know they are hiding works and not reporting them at these off the wall rinky dink facilities. its ridiculous. one more reason why the east coast sucks!!
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