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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2014 15:57:11 GMT -5
Thanks for Making Havoc in the 7th. You read the race exactly like it was run. The horse got bet pretty heavily at the end - 3 MTP it was 6-1, 9-2 going into the gate, and wound up at 7-2. And I hope you had that 5 horse in the 8th in your picks (and also hope you DIDN'T have the 2 horse that got disqualified!!!!) Like the 10 horse in the last race at Gulfstream the other day, Making Havoc got me ahead for the day. For the last week or so I seem to go in the hole early every day but dig myself out at the end. Works out okay, but I'd rather be playing the late races while ahead. I think that makes you 4 for 6 in these "best bets". Nice. im sick right now. that 5 was the worst horse I could have possibly got.
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Post by canterburykid on Mar 15, 2014 7:42:45 GMT -5
Rebel stakes $25 Ex Box 3,4 ( Tapiture & Strong Mandate)
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Post by canterburykid on Mar 15, 2014 8:27:49 GMT -5
Oaklawn R4) Galientos- Early spd on the rail, likes an off track, 3rd off lay-off & just missed @ similar level in last 2.Bullet 59.2 says I'm com'in Wires M/L 8/1
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 9:55:38 GMT -5
Saturday Gulfstream Park Race 6 #10 - Hey Leroy
This was my "BB" last Sunday, just six days ago. In that race he was far back early in the race, made a big move around the turn to get to the lead in the stretch, then was caught by the winner. This looks like an easier race, as a closer PP10 shouldn't be a problem, and coming back after six days shows he's in form. For what it's worth, his 94 Beyer Figure last week is higher than any other horse in the race has ever run. Morning Line is 6-1, let's hope we get close to that.
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Post by godfather on Mar 15, 2014 16:14:31 GMT -5
Nice call George. I remembered this horse from last week and followed your lead today.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 18:45:54 GMT -5
Thanks. He was clearly the best horse on paper - for a change for a change that translated into being best on the track. We didn't get 6-1, but got a better price than last week!
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Post by godfather on Mar 16, 2014 9:34:52 GMT -5
Sunday Tampa Race 5 Horse #2 Pentathlon Was in way over his head in last race. Back where he belongs today and should love the 8.5 furlong distance.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 14:52:28 GMT -5
sunday gulfstream race 11
#1 arissa 20-1 anything over 4-1 on this horse is ridiculous. his numbers are competitive anyway, but when you factor in the trouble he had 2 and 3 back he lays over this field on numbers. then if you look, the one race he did break last time, they had taken b-off and he was never comfortable running between horses and had nothing late. he showed big speed first out vs. better and now drops back down to an easier spot and puts the blinkers back on. if he breaks from the rail, he will show speed and be gone. I think he is bred both for the distance and somewhat for turf. plus three solid works since his last. only negatives are the trainer and the fact that he has broken slow twice before. but I will take my chances at 20-1.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 17:34:19 GMT -5
Damn, I wish I'd seen this earlier. Nice $29 horse, wiz!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 22:08:44 GMT -5
no updates lately?
I think my line now looks like
7-5-1-0 and the only race I was out of the money was that ten horse who ran 4th and my second best bet one the last and paid 18.20.
-14.00 +53.00 = +39.00 ROI= + $7.57?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2014 22:30:41 GMT -5
Sorry, will do an update of all sometime in the morning. Yes, your accounting is correct, to us a phenomenal 5 wins in 7 picks. To you, probably just all in a day's work. Very nice. Actually better than just "nice"!!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2014 2:49:32 GMT -5
no it is good for me as well. I don't claim to be a genius. but I just wish I had some luck to go along with it. I should have made giant scores this week, but have only grinded out minimal gains compare to what I could have. don't take it the wrong way, considering im only betting about 20 -25 percent of what I used to, I am still up over 30k since the year started. and that is in less then 3 months and ubtil the last few weeks, only betting a handful of races a week. now with the sheets I am basically betting the last 6 at gulfstream everyday, save for a pass here and there. but I have taken some horrible beats this week. between dq's and cancelled races, they have killed me.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2014 9:46:03 GMT -5
Here is the summary so far, including daily for last week:
Wednesday
George – Gulfstream - Race 6 #2 Confrontation – 3rd Wiz – Gulfstream - Race 9 #10 Littlemissperfect – 4th byanose - Gulfstream - Race 7 #1 Barzini - 1st $6.00
Thursday
GF – Gulfstream - Race 8 #1 Fortune Pearl – 5th George – Aqueduct - Race 3 #3 Stage Name – 2nd
Friday
Wiz – Gulfstream - race 7 #1 making havoc – 1st $9.20
Saturday
CK – Oaklawn – Race 4 #1 Galientos - out George - Gulfstream - Race 6 #10 - Hey Leroy - 1st $8.40
Sunday
GF – Tampa - Race 5 #2 Pentathlon – 2nd Wiz - Gulfstream - Race 11 #1 Arissa – 1st $29.40
Complete Summary:
GF 7-1-3-1 $14.00 $ 3.60 -$10.40 wiz 7-5-1-0 $14.00 $52.00 +$38.00 George 8-2-2-2 $16.00 $10.80 -$ 5.20 CK 2-0-0-0 $ 4.00 $ 0.00 -$ 4.00 Evelyn 1-0-0-0 $ 2.00 $ 0.00 -$ 2.00 Byanose 2-1-0-0 $ 4.00 $ 6.00 +$ 4.00 Teenage 1-0-0-0 $ 2.00 $ 0.00 -$ 2.00
Total 28-9-6-3 $56.00 $72.40 +$16.40
Win - 32% ITM - 63%
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Post by byanose13 on Mar 17, 2014 17:26:07 GMT -5
I had Barzini and I think he won.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2014 17:37:32 GMT -5
yes he did. he paid 6 something.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2014 17:38:56 GMT -5
I had Barzini and I think he won. Yep, I missed that one. Results and totals are updated. We're at 33% win rate and 66% ITM rate.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 10:03:07 GMT -5
I like two horses at Gulfstream today:
1st race #3 Late To The Party This horse broke its maiden at Calder at 5F from slightly off the pace, winning by 7-1/2 lengths. Her maiden price was $12,500, now in for $6250 against winners. She should be able to follow the two speed horses and again move up in the stretch to win. But if no one goes out she could have the lead early. ML is 3-1, second choice behind the 6 horse, but I'm expecting her to go off the favorite. Hopefully the 6 horse will be bet down.
4th race #5 Fort Boonesborough Another horse that can lay off the pace. Three of the four inside horses, along with the 8 horse, should be going for the lead, allowing his jockey to move to the rail early. The expected favorite, the 4 horse, hasn't run in six months so may come up short first time out. Fort Boonesborough last raced in January at a higher level, but has had five workouts since then (4F 4 days ago). I like the dropdown and regular workouts, think he'll have the strongest closing move and should win. ML is a nice 15-1!
The rules are that one picks a single horse each day, so I'm going with Fort Boonesborough (much better price!)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 14:11:29 GMT -5
wed. march 19th
gulfstream
I had a few different options here. I like the nine in the 6th, but its a cheap race and inconsistency abound. I like the one in the 8th race if he can shake clear of the 7 early, but the price wont be great. I also like the nine in the 9th race as I cant envision any one keeping up with him early again like last time. its the same field he just beat last time except for a couple who don't look like they have the speed to go with him either. I do like a couple others in there as well though so im not going to make him th BB either.
I will go with RACE !0 #9 angels south
he's consistently better then these on numbers other then maybe the #2 who is making a bad barn change and been regressing, and the #11 who is just a tad behind her. she has speed but doesn't need the lead to win I don't think. there is other speed signed up for the race in the #2, but I already said I think that one is going the wrong way and may not even send for the new barn. the only other speed looks to be the #3 and the #8, both of whom just look overmatched to me. I think the #9's biggest danger is the #11 who is consistent and should get a decent pace to run at. but I think the nine will tough on the drop in class.
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Post by byanose13 on Mar 19, 2014 16:29:43 GMT -5
Gulfstream Race 10
#10 Tree Hugger
Finished behind the 2 & 9 but had a little trouble and looks to make amends today. My play today would be a tri box with the 2,7,9,10
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 17:09:13 GMT -5
only race I did any good in was the ninth where I played 9 with 34 with spread, but I needed the 3 to beat the 2 for third. still it got me even for the day and live in the double to the 9 and 11. then what they did in the last was brutal. 5 across the track dueling fdor the lead down the backstretch? Christ!! 9 and 11 were tons the best in there and still almost held on after all that. I had 9-11-1 for the deck and 9-11 box too. plus the double strong. it was not a good day, but at least the ninth kept it from being cataclysmic.
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