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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 23:13:03 GMT -5
we stink
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Post by godfather on Mar 8, 2014 10:24:07 GMT -5
Saturday Gulfstream Race 8 Horse #9 Picozza Finished second in his last two races and in both races it was a long way back to the third place finisher. Speed figures tower above this field. Should be on the lead entering the stretch.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2014 10:32:52 GMT -5
Right now, yes. We'll get there. I know I've been running around the last couple of days so I've been "pressing" to get a pick, even if it isn't the best.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2014 12:26:10 GMT -5
Saturday, March 8 Santa Anita Race 6 #1 Anniversary Kitty
Won maiden on turf first time out, came back at same distance as today's race (1M turf) from post 14. Was pretty far back to the turn, then closed 7 wide to get up for second. Four evenly spaced workouts since then - post 1 vs. 14 in last, should be closer to the lead and win "easily". Hopefully we'll get close to the 12-1 morning line odds.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2014 16:00:12 GMT -5
not much time to post my bets today or my pick six or pick five plays, but here is this at least.
put me down for the same horse as godfather. pretty much the same reasons.
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Post by canterburykid on Mar 8, 2014 16:03:05 GMT -5
I like Hy Kodiak Warrior in the Tampa Bay Derby IMO Com well rested competitive closer, Lasix added by trainer who hits @ 50% w/1st time lasix, nice works & should get a respectful trip w/plenty of speed to run down in the stretch M/L 10-1
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2014 18:16:33 GMT -5
Picozza won easily at $3.60. My horse, Anniversary Kitty, was far back as expected, was making a big move out of the turn and then just got overcome by other closers. I actually thought the seven horse was the one horse the way Denman was calling it. Went off at 4-1, so obviously lots of other people thought the 12-1 ML was too generous.
Didn't see the TB Derby, but Kodiak ran out, don't know if he was out of it all race or not - like my pick, he was bet down from double digit ML to only 9-2.
Four picks, two winners (the same for wiz and GF), we're getting better and we have a good handicapper playing now, too!
Today:
GF: Gulfstream Race 8 #9 Picozza - won at $3.60 wiz: Gulfstream Race 8 #9 Picozza - won at $3.60 CK: Tampa Bay Race 11 #9 Hy Kodiak Warrior - out Geo: Santa Anita Race 6 #1 Anniversary Kitty - out
Summary:
Summary, 3 days:
GF 3-1-1-0 $6.00 $3.60 -$2.40 wiz 3-2-1-0 $6.00 $10.40 +$4.40 George 3-0-0-1 $6.00 $0.00 -$6.00 CK 1-0-0-0 $2.00 $0.00 -$2.00
Total 10-3-2-1 $20.00 $14.00 -$6.00
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Post by godfather on Mar 9, 2014 7:55:48 GMT -5
Sunday Gulfstream Race 8 Horse #1 Sweet Whisky Easy winner of her last race off a layoff. Anything close to a repeat of that race will get the job done today.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 11:55:02 GMT -5
Sunday Gulfstream Race 5 Horse #9 Hey Leroy
He ran three good races at this price ($25K), one win and two seconds, then moved up to $65K, was rank all around and steadied but still finished second in a slow time.
Now back to a mile and with $25K competition, with the early speed he should be able to stalk and pull away in the stretch. My concern is Contreras, one of the top Canadian jockeys, doesn't seem to do well over the winter.
I'll also be betting a 3-9 exacta box.
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Post by Evelyn on Mar 9, 2014 14:14:44 GMT -5
I'll toss one in today! At GP, Race 9 #6 Midnight Blue. This is only her 2nd race. She was off slowly in her debut but still a respectable 4th. I don't think the extra furlong will be a problem as she's by Midnight Lute. I don't like the jockey change but it is what it is.
I have to ask - George - do you ever play longshots (more than 8-1)? LOL
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 14:54:14 GMT -5
I'll toss one in today! At GP, Race 9 #6 Midnight Blue. This is only her 2nd race. She was off slowly in her debut but still a respectable 4th. I don't think the extra furlong will be a problem as she's by Midnight Lute. I don't like the jockey change but it is what it is. I have to ask - George - do you ever play longshots (more than 8-1)? LOL I rarely bet horses higher than 8-1, they don't win often enough to make it worthwhile in the long run. For example, in 11 races yesterday at Santa Anita only two winners were higher than 8-1, and at Gulfstream Park in their 11 races only two were higher than 8-1. But if you noticed further up, I did have that 9-1 shot at Gulfstream Park on Thursday, and two of my "best bets" (both losers though) were at 7-2 and 4-1 - not 8-1 but not close to being the favorite. It's all a matter of statistics, playing style. and comfort level. Considering that these days the top two choices win close to 60% of all races at all tracks, the bulk of the winners are going to be less than 8-1. Maybe Challedon has statistics for these odds ranges: 2-1 or lower 5-2 to 9-2 5-1 to 8-1 9-1 to 15-1 over 15-1
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Post by Evelyn on Mar 9, 2014 15:07:44 GMT -5
I think the challenge is to find a live longshot. Otherwise, just sit back and watch and play the board and that's no fun. I'll use favorites or 2nd choices in boxes but never straight bets. That's for those that bet $100's IMO. I don't feel winning $4-5 (or less) on a $2 bet is worth my time!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 15:11:36 GMT -5
EV. DONT GET HIM STARTED ON THAT QUESTION.
GULFSTREAM RACE 9
#1 MY MISS SOPHIA
RAN BIG IN THE SPRINT, BRED TO STRETCH OUT, SHOULD GET TO THE FRONT PRETTY ESILY AND HUG THE RAIL ALL THE WAY. SHORT PRICE, BUT TOUGH TO BEAT. I ALSO LIKE THE NINE IN HERE AT A BIG PRICE FOR EXACTS AND TRIS, BUT DONT THINK HE WILL CATCH THE ONE.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 15:12:40 GMT -5
Hey Leroy really got pounded - opened at the expected 9-2 (I though he'd be 4-1 or higher) but went off at the ubiquitous 2-1! He looked home easy with a hundred yards to go but got beat less than a length. The winner was my second choice so I got the longer of the two exacta payoffs, $26.20.
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Post by Evelyn on Mar 9, 2014 15:14:11 GMT -5
Wiz - Have her in the box!
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Post by Evelyn on Mar 9, 2014 18:55:48 GMT -5
Well - she didn't fire at all. The 4-5 ran away with that race. Can I blame the jockey? LOL
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 19:30:17 GMT -5
Sunday, March 9:
Today:
GF: Gulfstream Race 8 #1 Sweet Whisky - 3rd wiz: Gulfstream Race 9 #1 My Miss Sophia - won at $3.00 Geo: Gulfstream Race 5 #9 Hey Leroy - 2nd Ev: Gulfstream Race 9 #6 Midnight Blue - Out
Summary:
Summary, 4 days:
GF 4-1-1-1 $8.00 $3.60 -$4.40 wiz 4-3-1-0 $8.00 $13.40 +$5.40 George 4-0-1-1 $8.00 $0.00 -$8.00 CK 1-0-0-0 $2.00 $0.00 -$2.00 Evelyn 1-0-0-0 $2.00 $0.00 -$2.00
Total 14-3-2-1 $28.0 $17.00 -$11.00
At least one of us knows how to pick winners!!
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Post by Evelyn on Mar 9, 2014 20:31:08 GMT -5
Well - yes George but 3 winners and +$5.40? No TY LOL Betting $8 and showing $5.40? No TY!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2014 21:01:09 GMT -5
well ev, you should know as well as everyone else, im all about value. but h asked for best bet winners, not prices. and I can honestly say I did not bet the one today or yesterday to win. but that's why they have tris and exactas. yesterday I decked 9 with 4 and 8 in the tri and exacta. and the first won that paid 6.80 was my pick five single n Wednesday that paid 1900 including my 4 out of 5's.
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Post by byanose13 on Mar 10, 2014 17:18:13 GMT -5
Monday 8th race Turf Paradise
#3 Our Henny Penny
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