speaking of "why is this horse still running?"..............

If you look at his last three race (and disregard this one on the turf), he ran against some of the toughest horses in the country in some very tough races - Mor Spirit, Sharp Azteca, Connect, Defrong - these are some serious horses. OK he did not do very well but showed some run, getting within 3 or 4 lengths off the pace for a good bit of the race. The horse is just coming back to the races after a very long layoff. He did run basically even with Gun Runner in the Derby (lost by a neck for third) in a 103 speed rating so he has some abilities. I would give him some more time to get back in form before I would count him out. I can see a Graded (3, 2 or maybe even 1) win in his not so distant future.

In US racing the real running starts when the gate opens unlike European racing. So if a horse can keep up with a blistering pace, say 2-4 lengths back, although they fade to last they are still expending a lot of energy and power. So the horse still has something left after a year layoff with now his third race off a layoff. The third race yesterday was on the turf against some very good turf horses who are competitive in the graded turf races. He ran a decent race finishing only 3 lengths off at the finish. The horse still has something left. Give him some time and he might respond or maybe not, who knows. Typically what I find is that a good horse who ran some really good races then appears to go south comes back eventually to duplicate his best races - that is when you get some good longshots. Moyhaymen is another Keen Ice, who I had by the way last weekend. Keen Ice beat American Pharoah in the Travers 2 years ago but did not do too much after that although you have to judge him on that race insofar as what he is capable of on any given day. Moyhamen won his first 5 races and then ran good races against Nyquist who was definitely the best 3yo at that time, while finishing 4th in the KD in 103 speed rating. Both Keen Ice and Moyhamen have the same running styles coming from off the pace. Keen Ice just beat Shaman Ghost, who would have thunk it? I did because I go back to their best races and who were the horses they ran against in those races. Eventually a horse will run back to his best races even though they have a lot of bad races in-between. With race horses it is cyclical mostly unless they go bad for good. Shaman Ghost a good horse never beat the likes of American Pharoah. Likewise not many horses ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby losing a head to Gun Runner, the 2nd best horse in the US after Arrogate.

I see things for what they are in a totally objective non-emotional way - that is when I am at my best - don't always succeed in being totally objective but that is my goal in picking. You can't tell the difference between a downhill slide and a horse that is just running against horses that he did not have a shot at beating like Mor Spirit and Defrong - no way he could beat those horses. That does not mean he is all washed up and on a permanent downhill slide. It could mean that but I have to see more evidence of this before I am convinced because to me just being able to stay close to Mor Spirit and Defrong is a big accomplishment after being laid up for a year.

I have not bet a dime on the "pig" yet. I am waiting for when he is 20-1 in a Grade 1 or 2 or 3 when he outclasses the field but fools like you think he is all washed up because he could not beat truly great horses like Mor Spirit and Defrong when he was not ready to run his race. That is why I pick a lot of longshots because I know when a horse just was a little over matched and when what looks like a bad race to others looks like a good race to me.

In Mohaymen's best race which to me was the Kentucky Derby since he was running against all of the best horses in the country at one time and which he ran a 103 speed rating losing by a head for third to Gun Runner, he did show the running style of Keen Ice coming from 13th by 8 lengths to finish 4th by 4 lengths. Why? Because he can run just off the pace easily when running against lower level horses like he ran in his first few races, but put him in a really tough race and he needs to come way off the pace because he don't have the speed against real class horses but he has the grinding out ability of a class horse. That was shown in his running style in the Derby. He is somewhat of a plodder and grinding it out type of horse.

Wiz, I thought this thread was about Dortmund!!

bullshit. you were dead serious. maybe just too drunk to remember.

yes this last race was a drop, and where did he finish? if they run him back in anything resembling a grade 1 race next out, they will have to fight off the people with the white jackets to get out of the saddling area. if they don't drop him again, then he will be 10 or 15-1 and get smoked again. and if he does drop he will be an underplayed price and have no value. keep betting this pig. I just wish you were trustworthy enough so that I could offer to book your action. but we all know how that would work out.

It was enjoyable seeing Baffert win the stakes race at Los Alamitos (as the rider pleased, the chart should say) with another Shah horse finishing behind Baffert.

"Somewhat of a drop"?  His last TEN races were in Graded Stakes, this was an optional claimer.  And it's not even off a long layoff, he already ran twice in the last 8 weeks.

Oye vey!

I'm not ready to write him off, but we have to admit to ourselves that he didn't blossom into the horse we thought he'd be a year ago.

OMG you think a class race is based on whether it is officially stated as a Gr. 1, 2 or 3. lolololol! Dude it is the horses that are in the race not the official classification of the race. lolololol. The race had some of the toughest mile turf horses in the country like King Kreesa, Loubash and Karafa who would be competitive in any Grade 1 or 2 turf mile race in the country.

Yesterday I had Overture nailed at 12-1 in Indiana 8th race - the Gr 3 Indiana Oaks. Why? Because in last race, which was only an allowance race, was in the lead against Unchained Melody (laying 2nd) who in next race wired the field in the Mother's Goose. lolololol. No it does not matter what the class of the race was but who was in the race - handicapping 101. How can you survive for 25 years gambling is astounding. I tell you what, you must be a hell of a gambler knowing all the rule of thumb tricks to get your horses in there to be able to survive as a gambler for so long so I give it to you that you must be a serious gambler. Me - I am a very good horse racing picker technician. Just think what we could do together as a team - we would clean up. lol.

look at the list of horses you just rattled off. almost all of them are past their prime. 8 yr. olds and up some of them. plus, what makes you think he wants to go farther? his best race have all come at a mile and a 16th or less other then the derby which is never a measure of anything.