qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 14, 2017 18:07:39 GMT -5
certain people love to ask questions like this when west coast horses run 1 or 2 bad races, the bitch about how they were "juiced" when they won. well how come I haven't heard that question about MOHAYMEN? this horse couldn't win a 50k claimer at this point in his career but they keep running him. he is the perfect example of a horse that matured earlier then others and then never improved. he isn't going to get better. why run him? so the public can get sucked in again and again? lol. I love watching him go off at 3/1 in races he has no chance in like today. another east coast beauty,
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 14, 2017 18:53:55 GMT -5
If you look at his last three race (and disregard this one on the turf), he ran against some of the toughest horses in the country in some very tough races - Mor Spirit, Sharp Azteca, Connect, Defrong - these are some serious horses. OK he did not do very well but showed some run, getting within 3 or 4 lengths off the pace for a good bit of the race. The horse is just coming back to the races after a very long layoff. He did run basically even with Gun Runner in the Derby (lost by a neck for third) in a 103 speed rating so he has some abilities. I would give him some more time to get back in form before I would count him out. I can see a Graded (3, 2 or maybe even 1) win in his not so distant future.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 15, 2017 3:22:20 GMT -5
all mumbo jumbo. as I have said before, and you are great at this, if you overanalyze a race you can find a reason to like every horse in every race. this horse is a grade 1 winner with a pedigree and purchase price that is astounding. he isn't going to make that up or live up to those expectations. he could be making 5-10 times as much money per year at stud as he is going to make running in and even winning grade 3 type races, and if you think he is going to win any grade 1 race again then you have once again shown why you never win. so what if he was within 3 or 4 lengths at some point during the race? when the real running started, he was immediately outrun. do you think hes going to find many grade 1 races as an older horse where they go 49 for the half and hes on the lead uncontested? because that's what it is going to take for him to win. I guess they could always wait and run him on the inner dirt at aqueduct where they go the half in 52 seconds in 5 horse fields. maybe he could win a grade 3 there.
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Nostradamus
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 15, 2017 4:06:56 GMT -5
In US racing the real running starts when the gate opens unlike European racing. So if a horse can keep up with a blistering pace, say 2-4 lengths back, although they fade to last they are still expending a lot of energy and power. So the horse still has something left after a year layoff with now his third race off a layoff. The third race yesterday was on the turf against some very good turf horses who are competitive in the graded turf races. He ran a decent race finishing only 3 lengths off at the finish. The horse still has something left. Give him some time and he might respond or maybe not, who knows. Typically what I find is that a good horse who ran some really good races then appears to go south comes back eventually to duplicate his best races - that is when you get some good longshots. Moyhaymen is another Keen Ice, who I had by the way last weekend. Keen Ice beat American Pharoah in the Travers 2 years ago but did not do too much after that although you have to judge him on that race insofar as what he is capable of on any given day. Moyhamen won his first 5 races and then ran good races against Nyquist who was definitely the best 3yo at that time, while finishing 4th in the KD in 103 speed rating. Both Keen Ice and Moyhamen have the same running styles coming from off the pace. Keen Ice just beat Shaman Ghost, who would have thunk it? I did because I go back to their best races and who were the horses they ran against in those races. Eventually a horse will run back to his best races even though they have a lot of bad races in-between. With race horses it is cyclical mostly unless they go bad for good. Shaman Ghost a good horse never beat the likes of American Pharoah. Likewise not many horses ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby losing a head to Gun Runner, the 2nd best horse in the US after Arrogate.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 15, 2017 6:20:40 GMT -5
anyone that is going to brag about betting on keen ice in any race, whether he wins or loses, is someone you cant reason with. I know that and so does everyone else. that's why no one responds to your posts. you see things in a completely ass backwards way and will never realize that. betting horses who are on the downhill slide is the worst pattern you can follow and you are trying to reason that it is good? when horses go bad, they go bad. and everytime they drop they get pounded at the windows by suckers like you who think their form is just magically going to turn around. then when it finally does, so what? your stuck with an underplayed, no value winner who you have been chasing for 2 years and never get back what you have lost on him. I'm not saying there aren't occasions when horses bounce back, but there usually has to be a reason other then just class dropping. horses mature differently, and just because a horse is good at 2 and early 3 doesn't mean he will be later. you keep chasing this pig and see how your roi comes out in the end. lastly, how do keen ice and mohaymen have the same running style? keen ice comes from china and mohaymens best races in his career were when he was stalking the leaders, maybe 2-3 lengths off the lead. that is not the same running style. if your going to babble, at least try to know wtf you are talking about.
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Nostradamus
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 15, 2017 11:59:14 GMT -5
anyone that is going to brag about betting on keen ice in any race, whether he wins or loses, is someone you cant reason with. I know that and so does everyone else. that's why no one responds to your posts. you see things in a completely ass backwards way and will never realize that. betting horses who are on the downhill slide is the worst pattern you can follow and you are trying to reason that it is good? when horses go bad, they go bad. and everytime they drop they get pounded at the windows by suckers like you who think their form is just magically going to turn around. then when it finally does, so what? your stuck with an underplayed, no value winner who you have been chasing for 2 years and never get back what you have lost on him. I'm not saying there aren't occasions when horses bounce back, but there usually has to be a reason other then just class dropping. horses mature differently, and just because a horse is good at 2 and early 3 doesn't mean he will be later. you keep chasing this pig and see how your roi comes out in the end. lastly, how do keen ice and mohaymen have the same running style? keen ice comes from china and mohaymens best races in his career were when he was stalking the leaders, maybe 2-3 lengths off the lead. that is not the same running style. if your going to babble, at least try to know wtf you are talking about. I see things for what they are in a totally objective non-emotional way - that is when I am at my best - don't always succeed in being totally objective but that is my goal in picking. You can't tell the difference between a downhill slide and a horse that is just running against horses that he did not have a shot at beating like Mor Spirit and Defrong - no way he could beat those horses. That does not mean he is all washed up and on a permanent downhill slide. It could mean that but I have to see more evidence of this before I am convinced because to me just being able to stay close to Mor Spirit and Defrong is a big accomplishment after being laid up for a year. I have not bet a dime on the "pig" yet. I am waiting for when he is 20-1 in a Grade 1 or 2 or 3 when he outclasses the field but fools like you think he is all washed up because he could not beat truly great horses like Mor Spirit and Defrong when he was not ready to run his race. That is why I pick a lot of longshots because I know when a horse just was a little over matched and when what looks like a bad race to others looks like a good race to me. In Mohaymen's best race which to me was the Kentucky Derby since he was running against all of the best horses in the country at one time and which he ran a 103 speed rating losing by a head for third to Gun Runner, he did show the running style of Keen Ice coming from 13th by 8 lengths to finish 4th by 4 lengths. Why? Because he can run just off the pace easily when running against lower level horses like he ran in his first few races, but put him in a really tough race and he needs to come way off the pace because he don't have the speed against real class horses but he has the grinding out ability of a class horse. That was shown in his running style in the Derby. He is somewhat of a plodder and grinding it out type of horse.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 15, 2017 14:23:35 GMT -5
JC*! you are actually going to use the derby as an example of a horses running style? out of 20 horses in the derby, there might be 3 or 4 that actually get to run the race they want to in the derby. its a jumbled up shitfest where you basically have to hit the lotto to get the trip you want so don't even try to use that as an example. who was he beating when he was at his best? the best competition out there at the time that would face him. can he do that now? no he cant and that's because he hasn't gone forward and others have. that is the exact definition of a downhill slide. he can no longer compete at the top level. and as they continue to drop him he will continue to take action, getting overbet and not offering the value that a horse in his form should. but that's why you cant understand this. because you don't understand gambling or value. that's in your own words. you posted somewhere else saying "it doesn't matter what the odds are as long as you cash tickets. even if the horse is even money". that's not word for word, but pretty close. that's having an open mind? no that's just plain stupidity.
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Post by byanose13 on Jul 15, 2017 14:58:28 GMT -5
Wiz, I thought this thread was about Dortmund!!
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Nostradamus
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 15, 2017 15:32:10 GMT -5
JC*! you are actually going to use the derby as an example of a horses running style? out of 20 horses in the derby, there might be 3 or 4 that actually get to run the race they want to in the derby. its a jumbled up shitfest where you basically have to hit the lotto to get the trip you want so don't even try to use that as an example. who was he beating when he was at his best? the best competition out there at the time that would face him. can he do that now? no he cant and that's because he hasn't gone forward and others have. that is the exact definition of a downhill slide. he can no longer compete at the top level. and as they continue to drop him he will continue to take action, getting overbet and not offering the value that a horse in his form should. but that's why you cant understand this. because you don't understand gambling or value. that's in your own words. you posted somewhere else saying "it doesn't matter what the odds are as long as you cash tickets. even if the horse is even money". that's not word for word, but pretty close. that's having an open mind? no that's just plain stupidity. Continue to drop? He has not dropped to anything yet - he has been running against the best horses in the freaking country if you don't know, except his last turf race but in which were also top graded turf horses. They are not dropping him anywhere - watch where they place him his next race, it will be a Grade 1,2 or 3. lol. If I said that I bet 1-1 shots I was just choking your chain - I don't bet anything to win under 10 to 1 except as part of my exactas.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 15, 2017 19:28:31 GMT -5
bullshit. you were dead serious. maybe just too drunk to remember.
yes this last race was a drop, and where did he finish? if they run him back in anything resembling a grade 1 race next out, they will have to fight off the people with the white jackets to get out of the saddling area. if they don't drop him again, then he will be 10 or 15-1 and get smoked again. and if he does drop he will be an underplayed price and have no value. keep betting this pig. I just wish you were trustworthy enough so that I could offer to book your action. but we all know how that would work out.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 15, 2017 19:34:08 GMT -5
Wiz, I thought this thread was about Dortmund!! exactly nose. it fits there too. like I have said in the past, I have nothing against Sherman, but anyone who thinks hes going to get anything out of this horse that bob couldn't is smoking crack cocaine!! the horse has no business being in anyones barn. he has gone sour and has bad feet anyway. Sherman should know this if he is any kind of horsemen, so why is he be influenced by shah when bob wasn't? so who is the one who supposedly doesn't care about the safety of his horses?
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george
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Post by george on Jul 15, 2017 19:36:15 GMT -5
Wiz, I thought this thread was about Dortmund!! exactly nose. it fits there too. like I have said in the past, I have nothing against Sherman, but anyone who thinks hes going to get anything out of this horse that bob couldn't is smoking crack cocaine!! the horse has no business being in anyones barn. he has gone sour and has bad feet anyway. Sherman should know this if he is any kind of horsemen, so why is he be influenced by shah when bob wasn't? so who is the one who supposedly doesn't care about the safety of his horses? It was enjoyable seeing Baffert win the stakes race at Los Alamitos (as the rider pleased, the chart should say) with another Shah horse finishing behind Baffert.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 15, 2017 21:10:45 GMT -5
bullshit. you were dead serious. maybe just too drunk to remember. yes this last race was a drop, and where did he finish? if they run him back in anything resembling a grade 1 race next out, they will have to fight off the people with the white jackets to get out of the saddling area. if they don't drop him again, then he will be 10 or 15-1 and get smoked again. and if he does drop he will be an underplayed price and have no value. keep betting this pig. I just wish you were trustworthy enough so that I could offer to book your action. but we all know how that would work out. Yes it was somewhat of a drop compared to the caliber of horses he has been running against but they were just experimenting to see if he could run on the turf. He ran a respectable race though although you might not think so - he was on the pace and faded. At a stretch out ( 1 1/8 or greater) against the same horses he would be the one to beat in my way of thinking, that is most horses that fade at a shorter distance will run better at a longer distance for a greater percentage of the time, given they have the distance breeding and class. So again he was not dropped - he was just tried on the turf for the first time and ran a respectable race. Trust me the next time he runs it will be against graded dirt horses (excluding the likes of Arrogate, Gun Runner and Mor Spirit) and will kick azz.
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george
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Post by george on Jul 15, 2017 21:52:07 GMT -5
"Somewhat of a drop"? His last TEN races were in Graded Stakes, this was an optional claimer. And it's not even off a long layoff, he already ran twice in the last 8 weeks.
Oye vey!
I'm not ready to write him off, but we have to admit to ourselves that he didn't blossom into the horse we thought he'd be a year ago.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 15, 2017 23:00:50 GMT -5
bullshit. you were dead serious. maybe just too drunk to remember. yes this last race was a drop, and where did he finish? if they run him back in anything resembling a grade 1 race next out, they will have to fight off the people with the white jackets to get out of the saddling area. if they don't drop him again, then he will be 10 or 15-1 and get smoked again. and if he does drop he will be an underplayed price and have no value. keep betting this pig. I just wish you were trustworthy enough so that I could offer to book your action. but we all know how that would work out. Yes it was somewhat of a drop compared to the caliber of horses he has been running against but they were just experimenting to see if he could run on the turf. He ran a respectable race though although you might not think so - he was on the pace and faded. At a stretch out ( 1 1/8 or greater) against the same horses he would be the one to beat in my way of thinking, that is most horses that fade at a shorter distance will run better at a longer distance for a greater percentage of the time, given they have the distance breeding and class. So again he was not dropped - he was just tried on the turf for the first time and ran a respectable race. Trust me the next time he runs it will be against graded dirt horses (excluding the likes of Arrogate, Gun Runner and Mor Spirit) and will kick azz. respectable race? how the F* was that a respectable race? he was on the pace yes..........a crawling pace. it doesn't mean shit if you are close to a pace like that and fade. in fact it shows what a cow he is. yes I agree speed and fade is an ok angle.............when the pace is quick and you are going to get an easier one next time. this is the exact opposite. he was close to a slow pace and had no kick or finish when the race began. how can you not see this? this is what I mean by ass backwards thinking. you say "in your way of thinking" and that's my point. your "way" of thinking makes no sense and is horrible handicapping. you don't even understand what you are looking at or seeing when it is right in front of your face. nothing you say or think makes any sense. it is almost as if you are mentally handicapped, and if so, I'm sorry for making fun of a special needs person. but if you aren't, then god dammit man, you are a F*ing idiot!! they went 25 seconds and 49 1/5 for the first quarter and half in there. over a turf course that is lightening quick!! also "most" horses who fade in races don't improve just because they stretch out. once again, it does happen occasionally but it is not a majority of the time. the fact is this horse got a dream trip with an easy pace and beat one horse, who was 35/1 and by far the longest shot in the race,in a much easier field of old horses on the decline. he has no chance next time unless they run him back at a track like turf paradise, which we all know isn't happening. please stop gambling on horses. donate your brain to science or something so they can study it and try to help out future people born with your affliction.
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Nostradamus
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 16, 2017 12:51:15 GMT -5
"Somewhat of a drop"? His last TEN races were in Graded Stakes, this was an optional claimer. And it's not even off a long layoff, he already ran twice in the last 8 weeks. Oye vey! I'm not ready to write him off, but we have to admit to ourselves that he didn't blossom into the horse we thought he'd be a year ago. OMG you think a class race is based on whether it is officially stated as a Gr. 1, 2 or 3. lolololol! Dude it is the horses that are in the race not the official classification of the race. lolololol. The race had some of the toughest mile turf horses in the country like King Kreesa, Loubash and Karafa who would be competitive in any Grade 1 or 2 turf mile race in the country. Yesterday I had Overture nailed at 12-1 in Indiana 8th race - the Gr 3 Indiana Oaks. Why? Because in last race, which was only an allowance race, was in the lead against Unchained Melody (laying 2nd) who in next race wired the field in the Mother's Goose. lolololol. No it does not matter what the class of the race was but who was in the race - handicapping 101. How can you survive for 25 years gambling is astounding. I tell you what, you must be a hell of a gambler knowing all the rule of thumb tricks to get your horses in there to be able to survive as a gambler for so long so I give it to you that you must be a serious gambler. Me - I am a very good horse racing picker technician. Just think what we could do together as a team - we would clean up. lol.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 16, 2017 13:15:02 GMT -5
Yes it was somewhat of a drop compared to the caliber of horses he has been running against but they were just experimenting to see if he could run on the turf. He ran a respectable race though although you might not think so - he was on the pace and faded. At a stretch out ( 1 1/8 or greater) against the same horses he would be the one to beat in my way of thinking, that is most horses that fade at a shorter distance will run better at a longer distance for a greater percentage of the time, given they have the distance breeding and class. So again he was not dropped - he was just tried on the turf for the first time and ran a respectable race. Trust me the next time he runs it will be against graded dirt horses (excluding the likes of Arrogate, Gun Runner and Mor Spirit) and will kick azz. respectable race? how the F* was that a respectable race? he was on the pace yes..........a crawling pace. it doesn't mean shit if you are close to a pace like that and fade. in fact it shows what a cow he is. yes I agree speed and fade is an ok angle.............when the pace is quick and you are going to get an easier one next time. this is the exact opposite. he was close to a slow pace and had no kick or finish when the race began. how can you not see this? this is what I mean by ass backwards thinking. you say "in your way of thinking" and that's my point. your "way" of thinking makes no sense and is horrible handicapping. you don't even understand what you are looking at or seeing when it is right in front of your face. nothing you say or think makes any sense. it is almost as if you are mentally handicapped, and if so, I'm sorry for making fun of a special needs person. but if you aren't, then god dammit man, you are a F*ing idiot!! they went 25 seconds and 49 1/5 for the first quarter and half in there. over a turf course that is lightening quick!! also "most" horses who fade in races don't improve just because they stretch out. once again, it does happen occasionally but it is not a majority of the time. the fact is this horse got a dream trip with an easy pace and beat one horse, who was 35/1 and by far the longest shot in the race,in a much easier field of old horses on the decline. he has no chance next time unless they run him back at a track like turf paradise, which we all know isn't happening. please stop gambling on horses. donate your brain to science or something so they can study it and try to help out future people born with your affliction. Wiz, it was his first try on the turf at a mile which may not be his best distance against competitive Gr 1 an 2 turf mile horses - Inspector Linley, Blacktype, Lubash, King Kressa, Karafa. He ran a decent race based on that context. Get a grip now - Breathe in...now...breath out...slowly...now do it again...repeat...lol.
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qhwizard
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aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
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Post by qhwizard on Jul 16, 2017 16:01:06 GMT -5
respectable race? how the F* was that a respectable race? he was on the pace yes..........a crawling pace. it doesn't mean shit if you are close to a pace like that and fade. in fact it shows what a cow he is. yes I agree speed and fade is an ok angle.............when the pace is quick and you are going to get an easier one next time. this is the exact opposite. he was close to a slow pace and had no kick or finish when the race began. how can you not see this? this is what I mean by ass backwards thinking. you say "in your way of thinking" and that's my point. your "way" of thinking makes no sense and is horrible handicapping. you don't even understand what you are looking at or seeing when it is right in front of your face. nothing you say or think makes any sense. it is almost as if you are mentally handicapped, and if so, I'm sorry for making fun of a special needs person. but if you aren't, then god dammit man, you are a F*ing idiot!! they went 25 seconds and 49 1/5 for the first quarter and half in there. over a turf course that is lightening quick!! also "most" horses who fade in races don't improve just because they stretch out. once again, it does happen occasionally but it is not a majority of the time. the fact is this horse got a dream trip with an easy pace and beat one horse, who was 35/1 and by far the longest shot in the race,in a much easier field of old horses on the decline. he has no chance next time unless they run him back at a track like turf paradise, which we all know isn't happening. please stop gambling on horses. donate your brain to science or something so they can study it and try to help out future people born with your affliction. Wiz, it was his first try on the turf at a mile which may not be his best distance against competitive Gr 1 an 2 turf mile horses - Inspector Linley, Blacktype, Lubash, King Kressa, Karafa. He ran a decent race based on that context. Get a grip now - Breathe in...now...breath out...slowly...now do it again...repeat...lol. look at the list of horses you just rattled off. almost all of them are past their prime. 8 yr. olds and up some of them. plus, what makes you think he wants to go farther? his best race have all come at a mile and a 16th or less other then the derby which is never a measure of anything.
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cait
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Post by cait on Jul 16, 2017 16:23:29 GMT -5
1. He's in shape but placed badly? 2. Shadwell needs $ 3. He's prepping for a match race vs Dortmund?
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Nostradamus
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 16, 2017 16:46:20 GMT -5
1. He's in shape but placed badly? 2. Shadwell needs $ 3. He's prepping for a match race vs Dortmund? Not ready for prime time yet, although his connection have a lot of faith in him to run him in the Kings Bishop against Defrong and then the Met Mile against Mor Spirit when the connections are smart enough to know he is going to hook up with the best of the best in those races. Think about it - this horse must be showing something to the connections in his workouts.
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