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Post by jbracing on Jan 31, 2017 20:22:49 GMT -5
It's time to move on from the much ado about nothing Pegasus to the 2017 Kentucky Derby, one of these five horses mentioned below will win this years derby.
A: Gormley B: Mo Town C: Petrov D: Mastery E: Mo Town
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lt1
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Post by lt1 on Jan 31, 2017 21:18:32 GMT -5
You have Mo Town listed twice.
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Post by jbracing on Feb 1, 2017 7:28:25 GMT -5
As aptly stated I mentioned the same horse twice, here is the amended list. I credit you for the interjection.
A: Gormley B: Mo Town C: Petrov D: Mastery E: Mc Craken
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teenagewildlife
Active Member
my mama said you better get things done, you better not mess with major tom
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Post by teenagewildlife on Feb 1, 2017 13:09:32 GMT -5
As aptly stated I mentioned the same horse twice, here is the amended list. I credit you for the interjection. A: Gormley B: Mo Town C: Petrov D: Mastery E: Mc Craken petrov, doesn't look like it. gormley, something about his last performance just irked me. haven't seen B or D run, but hasn't Mastery started pretty late for a Derby campaign? I like McCracken but his connections are avoiding Classic Empire in the Holy Bull and instead are running next week at Tampa.
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 1, 2017 13:18:58 GMT -5
i'll be interested to see how many times this list changes in the next 3 months.
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Post by jbracing on Feb 2, 2017 7:29:26 GMT -5
this list will not change at all, if by some chance all of these racehorses misfire then I was wrong. I see in here 2+2 doesn't equal 4 with a few people.
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 2, 2017 7:56:38 GMT -5
ive watched very few derby horses this year or last when they were 2 year olds. classic empire did look good in his BC win but playing chalk 6 months before a race isn't my style unless your dealing with a horse that looks tons the best, like nyquist or pharaoh has the last 2 years. I can say this much, the three derby preps so far this year has produced nothing as far as I'm concerned and the 3 this weekend don't look all that awe inspiring either I am glad baffert took klimt off the trail. he had no chance. a very over rated horse and not one of bobs best by any means. I have seen gormleys last three. i'll pass on him. he looks very ordinary and has a subpar trainer to boot.
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Post by byanose13 on Feb 5, 2017 9:27:47 GMT -5
Mastery looked good in his last and El Areeb looked good in the Withers yesterday.
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Post by jbracing on Feb 5, 2017 9:41:16 GMT -5
Classic Empire was a dud yesterday
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cait
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Posts: 3,821
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Post by cait on Feb 5, 2017 17:24:18 GMT -5
klimt hasn't worked sine dec - is there an injury?
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 6, 2017 1:15:22 GMT -5
all I know is he is being pointed to races after the derby supposedly but I think baffert just knows he is not a derby horse or wants that kind of distance.
that race yesterday should be ignored by classic empire. I was going against him going in tp this race, but don't think he should be tossed from long term derby consideration by any means. he was washed out horribly and got a bad ride also in a race that was only a prep for later. the others may have just caught up to him maturity wise, but I wouldn't kick him to the curb just yet.
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Post by jbracing on Feb 17, 2017 15:57:03 GMT -5
Mc Cracken is now my leading three year old.....
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Feb 19, 2017 23:18:21 GMT -5
McCraken has been beating up cheap allowance horses. He is this years version of Moyhamen. He is a poor mans sucker bet. Ask the wiz about that. lol.
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 20, 2017 2:05:31 GMT -5
you cant help yourself can you? a person would think you would get tired of posting your opinions when they are always wrong. not that I am picking McCracken, because I'm not, but its hilarious to watch you post shit that has no truth to it. the two best fields assembled yet in the preps this year were in the tampa bay race and in the holy bull. I saw the horse you just picked on the other site. I suppose he has faced better?
the only thing you need to ask me is how much of an idiot do I think you are.
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Post by jbracing on Feb 21, 2017 9:17:10 GMT -5
Petrov ran a very inspired race yesterday, he pressed fast fractions and had the lead midstretch only to be passed by Mr Pletchers talented One Liner. One Liner appears to be the now horse, I don't regret having him on my list due to the record Mr Pletcher has in the Derby. Petrov will only improve. Uncontested was awful and has no shot on the triple crown trail
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 23, 2017 20:42:12 GMT -5
would agree with just about everything you said here. I'm not quite sold on one liner just yet, but I may be wrong. petrov was my 2nd pick in the race and ran well. he is definitely improving. uncontested wants no part of 2 turns against top competition. he was lucky to catch a sloppy, wet/fast track in his previous where speed dominated that day. he was way overbet.
I still haven't seen a lot of the horses from last year yet, including mastery, and as I am writing this I am assuming classic empire will not be on the derby trail much longer. if he is he definitely is still a contender. but of the ones I have seen so far this year either in the RTTC races or in doing research for those races, these are the ones who have caught my eye and impressed me the most and are the best value. my opinions definitely differ from most of the "experts" thankfully.
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 23, 2017 23:18:43 GMT -5
12) 25/1- American anthem- ran well when bellyhooked inside of more experienced horse in the SHAM but never quit and has way more room for improvement the winner that day, not to mention a much better trainer. however at 25/1 he wouldn't get my money right now. 11) 30/1- tapwrit- doesn't have much quickness when asked like good horses do but should love the derby distance if he is good enough to make the race. he ran well in last but is not a good bet at these diminished odds. 10) 12/1- irish war cry- getting WAY to much ink off of that last race. yes he looked good winning it but he could not have had things any easier then he did. he took no pace pressure and crawled early. clearly he is a contender but the odds are a joke. 9) 100/1- untrapped- ran well in the lecomte and looks a lot like his stablemate, local hero, with a little less impressive breeding and smaller price tag. they are both entered Saturday in the risen star. he does have experience vs. winners which his stablemate doesn't but he was also beaten on the square already by guest suite who is also entered in that race. I like the other assmuson runner slightly better but cant rule this guy out of improving and is a very good price still. 8) 125/1- local hero- entered Saturday in the risen star and is coming off of an impressive maiden win in his first route and first start of the year after two runner ups last year in Kentucky. 500k purchase has the breeding, trainer, and look of a horse who may have improved dramatically in recent months as most derby winners do this time of year. if you like him Saturday now is the time to bet him in futures because if he wins there is no chance you will see these odds again. 7) 40/1- guest suite- ran well to win the lecomte and doesn't have a lot of knocks but also hasn't been super impressive. I'm not sure what kind of ceiling this horse has. he is working well from what I hear and should be very competitive Saturday in the risen star but I think others might have more room for improvement at better prices. still cant knock him though.
1-6 to come
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 24, 2017 1:05:41 GMT -5
6) 125/1? before last weekends race- petrov- another improving with racing and I like this horses running style. he seems to have the ability to either sit close, rate midpack, or even send to the lead if no one wants it I think. don't know how much overall talent he has, had no excuse when beaten by one liner in last, and would like to see a different trainer, but the price is right. 5) 125/1? before last weekends race- one liner- surprised me how good he looked in last weekends race. he really looked good in his first route try and even though he was green late he finished strong and was clearly best that day. still, its pletcher so his leg may fall off before he even gets to the derby. I have no idea what his odds are now though. 4) 75/1- wild shot- ran BTL in that tampa bay race. ke was 3-4 wide all the way and was still right in it until late when he tired. but I don't think it was from the distance, just the rough trip. hes got good tactical speed, seems to be getting a little better with each start, and hasn't ducked anyone, having faced good fields in all 3 starts this year. he may not have been winning the battles so far, but that doesn't mean he wont win the war when its all over. definitely worth plying at those odds. 3) 6/1- mccraken- yes he is the chalk and probably should be at this point. but 6/1 is an unplayable number when he still has to make 2 more starts before they even get to the derby. he has been impressive and beaten good fields in his races. but with his running style trouble could be waiting just around the corner for him in every start. he did win against the bias last time though and has to be on any reasonably bright persons list. 2) 25/1- gunnerva- chased a lone-f winner in last and had trouble to boot, but never quit and rerallied outside for 2nd. he probably wasn't going to beat the winner that day anyway because of the pace situation but he surely would have been closer. he has an experience edge over many of these but should be fresh as that was his first start after a nice little break. distance shouldn't be a problem, but hos running stle is just like mccraken's so there is always the possibility of traffic problems. I like him but the odds are bodering on too low for me to play.
and the #1 contender at this point is ..........................
1) 40/1- el areeb - should show the peanut gallery here that once again, I am not biased against the east coast.......just shitty horses and racing which is usually what they provide. anyway, he has beaten nothing, as usual when you run in the ny preps, and based on recent yearz would probably be a dud in the derby. BUT this one looks different to me. you will never find a horse with better derby breeding then this guy. hes also getting better with every start and looks very professional doing it. I don't know much about the trainer though. I also really liked that last race. the final time doesn't look great on paper but remember it was Aqueduct. plus he came home strong after having to close into a very slow pace. he just looks like the horse to me right now. lets home he doesn't break down before they can get him out of aqueduct and to a real track.
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qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
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Post by qhwizard on Feb 24, 2017 1:12:03 GMT -5
to summarize, the horses I would consider betting at this point would be
local hero at 150/1 petrov at 125/1 * one liner at 125/1 * wild shot at 75/1 naybe gunnerva at 25/1 el arreb at 40/1
* depends on probable odds changes.
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cait
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Post by cait on Feb 24, 2017 18:22:37 GMT -5
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