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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2014 17:57:23 GMT -5
Here's my prediction on Will Take Charge in the Donn: OFF THE BOARD....Now if he wins I'll admit I was wrong.
As per the Paulick Report.
Will Take Charge wins the 2013 Pennsylvania Derby.
Champion Will Take Charge arrived by van early Tuesday morning at Gulfstream Park, where the D. Wayne Lukas-trained 4-year-old star is slated to make his 2014 debut in Sunday’s $500,000 Donn Handicap (G1).
The son of Unbridled Song, who was named last year’s champion 3-year-old at the Eclipse Awards ceremony at Gulfstream Park last month, appeared alert and bright after his journey from Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.
“He handled the trip great. It’s unbelievable how good he is. It took us 20 hours and 20 minutes to get here, and you’d never know it to look at him,” said John Sica, the Lukas assistant who drove the van that delivered the likely favorite for Sunday’s 1 1/8-mile handicap. “He has a great mind.”
Lukas, the five-time Eclipse Award winner who has saddled four Kentucky Derby champions and 14 winners of Triple Crown events overall, is expected to be at Gulfstream on Friday, Sica said.
As the 123-pound highweight, Will Take Charge will concede at least four pounds to his Donn rivals, expected to include Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Revolutionary (119), Hal’s Hope (G3) victor Lea (117), Harlan’s Holiday winner River Seven (116), Indiana Derby (G2) hero Neck ‘n Neck (116) and Discovery Handicap (G3) winner Romansh (116). The 59th running of the Donn Handicap will be nationally televised by Fox Sports 1 (5-6:30 p.m.), kicking off “The Jockey Club Tour on Fox” series.
Will Take Charge is stabled in Barn 2 with former Lukas assistant Todd Pletcher’s Gulfstream division, two barns away from Mucho Macho Man, who nosed him out of a victory in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita on Nov. 2. The Lukas-trained colt had previously captured the Travers (G1) at Saratoga and the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) at Parx. He concluded his championship season with a triumph over older rivals in the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29.
“He is such a good horse,” Sica said. “His mother was a really good horse; his brother won the Florida Derby.”
The breeding of Will D. Horton’s champion would certainly suggest that the Kentucky-bred colt will be well-suited to the Gulfstream surface. His dam, multiple Grade 1-stakes winner Take Charge Lady, produced Take Charge Indy, who captured the 2012 Florida Derby (G1) for trainer Patrick Byrne. His sire, Unbridled’s Song, was a Florida Derby winner for trainer James Ryerson, defeating the Lukas-trained Editor’s Note by more than five lengths in 1996.
Will Take Charge is scheduled to walk Wednesday before getting acquainted with the Gulfstream racetrack Thursday morning.
Pres
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2014 18:52:52 GMT -5
i never had a problem with this horse. i thought all along he was a much better horse then oxbow, and i was right. im not saying he was the BEST 3 yr. old last year imo, but by years end he did deserve the award because he accomplished more then the others did. i just hope he survives a 4 year old campaign with Kevorkian training him. there aren't many horses that have over the last 30 years. hell, outside of skyring, who is only an average turfer, i cant remember a horse since steinlen that he had that raced past 4 yrs. of age. good luck and godspeed will take charge!!
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Post by donrock on Feb 4, 2014 18:58:56 GMT -5
He's such a big horse maybe he will be up to the challenges thrown his way. Lets hook him up with Zenyatta baby to be called Z GIANT IN CHARGE
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Post by Evelyn on Feb 4, 2014 23:55:01 GMT -5
I loved Oxbow (He was my TC pick)and am sorry he retired. but also thought WTC would eventually grow into himself. I hope he has an outstanding year.
Don - it would be a giant LOL
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cait
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Post by cait on Feb 5, 2014 13:27:49 GMT -5
geeesh don - that might result in an elephant!
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Post by godfather on Feb 5, 2014 16:48:47 GMT -5
If WTC wins the Don on the speed biased Gulfstream surface it would be his greatest accomplishment. IMO it would also put him in the top 5 in the older male division. He has everything to gain and nothing to lose in the Don. If he finishes far back most will say the speed bias was the major factor.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2014 17:14:23 GMT -5
why is it whenever a track starts having a few front runner winners, it has to be labeled speed biased? how about fair? the fastest horses should be winning, not the ones who have no speed and need the race to fall apart in front of them so they can pass the dead tired front runners who did all the work. why should horses be rewarded for being slow early and plodders? im not saying that there aren't biases that show up in tracks because that is a big part of my handicapping. but im just sick of people assuming that when front runners win a few races in a row, it has to be because it was aided by the track and that somehow they weren't the best horse.
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Post by godfather on Feb 5, 2014 17:19:38 GMT -5
Whiz,
This is nothing new. Gulfstream has been considered a speed biased track for as long as I can remember and on days when stakes races are run the track superintendant makes the track as fast as possible looking for new track records.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2014 2:21:04 GMT -5
yeah I understand that. santa anita has been pretty much the same way for years up until this meet when it has been much more even from what I have seen. although I haven't watched the last two weeks. ium just saying, I see nothing wrong with it. everyone bitches about santa anitas speed bias on BC Friday (although I don't think it was nearly as bad as people made it out to be. just look at the results) but that's the way it should be. speed should e rewarded. its a race isn't it? I don't see why horses who sit back and have to hope others duel or fold should be rewarded for not having natural speed. but of course, the east coasters have to have something to complain about when their horses like POS get destroyed.
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Post by godfather on Feb 6, 2014 7:41:47 GMT -5
When horsemen complain about a speed bias and it goes away over night it's hard to believe the complaint wasn't legitimate.
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Post by Evelyn on Feb 6, 2014 11:49:13 GMT -5
I think GS track plays fair. Some days there may be a speed bias, other days not. While I don't want to revisit the BC Fri thing,almost every turf writer, columnist, TV talking heads (except those in CA LOL) agreed it was a ridiculously speed favoring track. As GF said, it was fixed overnight, which to me, proves the point. Wiz - West coasters do their share of complaining - sometimes even you!  Also, whenever someone says something you don't agree with, you tell them they are biased, or complaining, or whining. That's not it - they just don't agree with you LOL |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2014 12:09:05 GMT -5
I think GS track plays fair. Some days there may be a speed bias, other days not. While I don't want to revisit the BC Fri thing,almost every turf writer, columnist, TV talking heads (except those in CA LOL) agreed it was a ridiculously speed favoring track. As GF said, it was fixed overnight, which to me, proves the point. Wiz - West coasters do their share of complaining - sometimes even you! Also, whenever someone says something you don't agree with, you tell them they are biased, or complaining, or whining. That's not it - they just don't agree with you LOL You got me again! GS (Garden State) has been closed for years, GP (Gulfstream Park) plays fair most of the time. Just about every track periodically favors speed and periodically favors closers. Some favor speed more consistently than others - for the first few years of the Aqueduct inner track it was notoriously speed favoring. On the other hand, when California changed over to synthetic tracks, I believe it was Del Mar that was unbelievably biased toward closers (maybe Hollywood Park or Santa Anita - I forget which). |
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Post by Evelyn on Feb 6, 2014 12:16:31 GMT -5
Sorry George! Will use GP - like the form!
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Post by godfather on Feb 6, 2014 12:48:24 GMT -5
So what really constitutes a speed bias? IMO it is the following.
1. The horse on or very near the lead is winning EVERY race
2. Bottom level claimers run the half mile in 44.4 in a six furlong race and hang on for the win
3. Deep closers make up absolutely no ground in the stretch after extremely fast fractions were run by the horses on or near the lead
Track superintendants can make the track play any way they wish.
BTW, I consider Monmouth Park one of the most speed biased tracks in North America
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2014 14:42:29 GMT -5
I think GS track plays fair. Some days there may be a speed bias, other days not. While I don't want to revisit the BC Fri thing,almost every turf writer, columnist, TV talking heads (except those in CA LOL) agreed it was a ridiculously speed favoring track. As GF said, it was fixed overnight, which to me, proves the point. Wiz - West coasters do their share of complaining - sometimes even you! Also, whenever someone says something you don't agree with, you tell them they are biased, or complaining, or whining. That's not it - they just don't agree with you LOL I didn't say it couldn't be changed overnight. what im saying is why should it be? if you want to race in quicksand or on an unfavorable to speed track, go race in the desert f Dubai somewhere. I consider the tracks at gs and santa anita the two most honest and fair tracks in the country.........because they do favor speed usually over closers. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2014 14:44:29 GMT -5
I think GS track plays fair. Some days there may be a speed bias, other days not. While I don't want to revisit the BC Fri thing,almost every turf writer, columnist, TV talking heads (except those in CA LOL) agreed it was a ridiculously speed favoring track. As GF said, it was fixed overnight, which to me, proves the point. Wiz - West coasters do their share of complaining - sometimes even you! Also, whenever someone says something you don't agree with, you tell them they are biased, or complaining, or whining. That's not it - they just don't agree with you LOL I didn't say it couldn't be changed overnight. what im saying is why should it be? if you want to race in quicksand or on an unfavorable to speed track, go race in the desert f Dubai somewhere. I consider the tracks at gs and santa anita the two most honest and fair tracks in the country.........because they do favor speed usually over closers. and yes most writers did think that way............and most of the writers are east coast based. that's a shocker, isn't it? DRF has always had an east coast bias in their writers. the facts are right, whether you want to believe them or not. im sure instead you would rather listen like sheep to what those east coast writers want you to believe, that there was some gigantic bias, which there wasn't. there was only ONE horse to go wire to wire in the breeders cup races on Friday. all the turfers came from off the pace, the marathon on dirt went to a horse that closed from china in the stretch, beholder rated midpack and 3 wide til the far turn, and hell, even the Arabian race went to a dead closer from the rear. the only front runner to win was goldencents who just ran them off their feet. how is that a bias? just because a horse with no natural speed and who comes from the clouds like POS couldn't compete with a better horse like beholder? stop the nonsense! |
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Post by godfather on Feb 6, 2014 14:58:03 GMT -5
Actually I can't see why a owner of a closer would have a horse running at Santa Anita, Gulfstream, or Monmouth. These tracks consistantly favor speed horses. Why waste races when your horse has no chance to win. Cali is like an Island and unless the owners are willing to pay huge shipping charges they are just stuck with what Cali has to offer. The East coast has more tracks to chose from. If a owner gets tired of the speed bias at GP he can ship his horse a few miles down the road to Calder where there is rarely a speed bias.
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Post by Challedon on Feb 6, 2014 15:25:05 GMT -5
I went and looked at my track profile data.
Gulfstream is speedy, over the last 30 days and also over the last 365 days.
Santa Anita is speedy overall but less speedy over the last 30 days.
Overall they are fairly similar.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2014 15:49:41 GMT -5
......and most of the writers are east coast based. that's a shocker, isn't it? DRF has always had an east coast bias in their writers. Of course DRF favors Eastern tracks. They're in the business of promoting the sport and their publications. Anyone who looks at a map of North American racetracks would see that maybe about 75% of the major tracks are in the eastern half of the country. But they also have a bias for major tracks that are currently running, too. Look at their homepage today. There are 11 articles on today's DRF home page - three are about Santa Anita*, four are about Gulfstream Park*, one is about the cancellations today, one is about the new racing show on Sunday (come to think of it, that's FIVE about Gulfstream Park), the last two are about Monmouth Park's stakes schedule and the Kentucky Derby Future wager. *maybe they have a Magna bias? This is typical of the winter months - the highlight is on Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Things will change as the year wears on. But again, can one fault DRF for seemingly having a "bias" toward the eastern part of the continent? Take a look at this map: www.tmeter.com/racetrackmap.htmlOther than the northern California fair circuit, the majority of the tracks in the US are in the eastern half of the country (this map isn't accurate, I think it's missing a couple of New Mexico tracks) |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2014 17:04:53 GMT -5
I went and looked at my track profile data. Gulfstream is speedy, over the last 30 days and also over the last 365 days. Santa Anita is speedy overall but less speedy over the last 30 days. Overall they are fairly similar. yeah that's what I was saying. I noticed that this meet at sant anita from what I have been watching. a lot less wire to wire winners then previous meets, but it is still possible to go wire to wire. it is very even right now. |
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Also, whenever someone says something you don't agree with, you tell them they are biased, or complaining, or whining. That's not it - they just don't agree with you LOL