Derby Summary

From "Across the Pond"

Derby Joy for Orb
Co-favourite Orb gave trainer Shug McGaughey his first success in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday night.


Orb splashes to victory in the Kentucky Derby

Ridden by Dubai World Cup-winning jockey Joel Rosario, Orb made light of the sloppy track at Churchill Downs to win the first leg of the American Triple Crown in style.

He powered clear to beat Golden Soul with fellow market leader Revolutionary back in third after heavy rain in Louisville turned the Run for the Roses into a real slog.

Aidan O'Brien's Lines Of Battle finished seventh without ever landing a telling blow.

www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8692728/derby-joy-for-orb

i see age hasnt improved shugs ability to recognize when the best horse wins, if he still thinks the slop cost easy goer the derby. some people never learn from their mistakes or admit to being defeated. i felt good about this whole thing til i read that.
and yes i hear ya on the tris and exacta. orb wasnt my top pick but the way i played the race i did use him on all my tris and exactas, just no place horse.i basically boxed 5 horses and then keyed my top two top and bottom, that being luckyday and normandy, with palace, orb and revolutionary. so 1.3.4 for me too. although i did only lose 30 40 dollars for the whole day. i invested 300 in the derby and 100 in the p4 which i hit 4 times and got back 360. of course orb was my worst number but at least i didnt get buried on the race.

not arguing that elite. but sunday silence would beat orb by at least 20 lengths and a nose!!! you know why? because he had heart and determination and a will to win, and didnt need a home court afvantange to be at his best. enough said.

Beyer gets it mostly right. I don't agree that the pace was why Orb won.Orb won because he was the best of that field, on May 4th, 2013!

What does everyone think re the 104?


Orb's Kentucky Derby was a victory for the old school
By Andrew Beyer

Score one for the old school.

Orb’s stretch-running victory in the 139th Kentucky Derby was not only trainer Shug McGaughey’s first success in the race, but also a vindication of a philosophy that today seems almost quaint. Whenever the Hall of Famer was asked why he had come to the Derby for only the second time since 1989, he never said that this is the race that every trainer aspires to win. His answer was always on the lines of, “The horse brought me here.”

Casual fans watching the NBC telecast might barely have known who McGaughey is, because he’s not part of the cast of characters (Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert, Nick Zito) who regularly populate the Triple Crown races. Yet people within the industry look on him with a respect that borders on reverence. When a TV interviewer collared Doug O’Neill, trainer of Goldencents, immediately after Saturday’s race, he promptly said: “Hats off to Shug! He’s so worthy, he’s such an unbelievable trainer, he’s so patient. He doesn’t bring ’em over here unless they’re ready.”

While all trainers recognize and talk about the importance of patience, few trainers exhibit it, especially when the Derby is concerned. They used to. The late Charlie Whittingham operated the most powerful stable in the West for decades, but he didn’t take a horse to the Derby for 26 years until he won with Ferdinand in 1986.

It was Wayne Lukas who changed the way the game is played. He recognized that the way to build his reputation and attract owners was to win the most high-profile races, particularly the 3-year-old classics. Every year he was a general masterminding an all-out assault on the Derby, and he threw his troops into battle knowing they would have to sustain casualties in the pursuit of his objective. Lukas became the most famous and successful trainer in the United States, and his obsession with the Derby became the norm.

The old school believes a trainer should not manage a horse to fulfill the personal ambitions of the owner or trainer. The old school believes a trainer should be guided by the development and the capabilities of the animal. The old school believes judicious handling will eventually bring rewards.

McGaughey elaborated on the philosophy at the post-Derby news conference. “I like to be at the barn, I like to watch horses, and if they’re not doing exactly what I want them to do, I don’t run them,” he said. “If you force a horse into a race and make a mistake, it’s a big mistake. There’s always another race down the road.”

McGaughey subordinated his personal desires to this philosophy. He is a native of Kentucky, so the Derby is in his blood, and his failure to win the race was a significant hole in his otherwise illustrious résumé. He might have seemed indifferent to the Derby, but he was burning to win it. “I always wanted to be in the Derby — if I had the right horse,” he said. “And this year I had the right horse.”

Orb had lost the first three starts of his career, but when the colt went to Florida this winter, McGaughey witnessed a transformation. “I couldn’t believe what I was seeing day in and day out,” he said. Yet even after Orb won the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream — a performance that would have put most trainers’ 3-year-olds on the fast track to Louisville — McGaughey wasn’t thinking about going to Churchill Downs. It took Orb’s victory in the Florida Derby to convince him.

Orb’s steady development continued when he got to Kentucky. Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch, among others, raved almost daily about how good Orb looked and acted. It was the classic McGaughey pattern. Because of the trainer’s patient management , his horses get better over time. And Orb was at his very best on Saturday, scoring an authoritative 21/2-length victory.


Is he a great horse? Is he the next Triple Crown winner? It is difficult to make a definitive judgment on the basis of the Derby. A sloppy track muddies any post-race analysis because it is impossible to know if a horse has run well or poorly because of an affinity or a dislike for the surface. For those of us who rely on speed figures to assess horses, the off-and-on rain in Louisville caused the track to change during the day and made any calculations difficult. However, I am reasonably confident in the accuracy of Orb’s Beyer Speed Figure of 104, which is better than I’ll Have Another and Animal Kingdom earned in the last two years but still below the historical average for the Derby.

The Derby was affected not only by the weather but by the way the early part of the race was run. When Palace Malice unexpectedly shot to a big lead and rocketed the first six furlongs in 1:09.80, the pace was what NBC commentator Randy Moss described as “radioactive.” Every horse near Palace Malice was contaminated. The speed horses chasing him all collapsed, and the horses running 17-15-18-6-16 at the six-furlong mark wound up finishing 1-2-3-4-5. Of the four horses closest to Orb, only one had ever won a stakes race, suggesting that the Derby outcome was as much a result of pace as the pure talent of the runners.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to make a case that any of Orb’s 18 foes might prove to be a better horse under different circumstances. The speed horses were trounced so badly that they were discredited, and Orb was the best of the stretch-runners. (The one possible exception might be fourth-place Normandy Invasion, whose jockey moved to the lead prematurely.) As Orb aims for the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, he doesn’t appear to have many credible rivals. McGaughey’s Derby victory could be just the beginning of an historic feat.

© 2013, The Washington Post

Wiz, Easy Goer was much better than Sunday Silence. That's a fact. If you want to see the definition of heart, look at Easy Goer in the Preakness. His legs were rubber at the top of the stretch after a horror trip by Pat Day. And still he thought he won and proved it next out at Belmont where he not only denied SS immortality but he utterly destroyed him in the process.
After that SS was kept in the barn recovering. He only met medicore horses in the Super Derby while Easy Goer won the Belmont, The Whitney, The Travers, The Woodward AND the JCGC which was then at 1 1/2! Come on man, don't you know anything about horses?

Easy Goer did all that while the Bald Eagle was mending his horse. He brought Shug to school but i'm sure the Phipp's were calling the shots to dance every dance.
When they met in the finally, Day again broke dead last and left and STILL made it life and death with a FRESH SS at the wire....Easy was TONS better. FACT!

This derby was absoloute garbage. It's a throw out race for all including the winner. Orb has his races spread apart and now has two weeks? Good luck wit dat. Talk of a TC is silly but he may indeed be the best of this horrible lot.
If Real Quiet won the TC, he's still 15 Quantum Lenghts behind an Easy Goer but he could have won it. If Orb does he'll remain 20 lengths behind Easy Goer but he'll still be a TC winner.
It would kill the TC club imo.

We'll see about the two weeks Shooter. It wouldn't be a big surprise if it hurts him as it has hurt many over the years. And if not, well you know how many just could not do it at Belmont. I wouldn't be shocked to see him win at Pimlico but I would if he won a TC. Hell, I was shocked he won the derby. Not to make excuses but we here at QU are thinking the lightening pace AND slop which he obviously relished made a plodder type look better than he was....And he still plodded. There was no explosion. Cryptoclearence Lite.

@e1:

I tend to disagree. I think he would have been even better on a fast track. How the sloppy track may have hampered the others in the race, hard to tell. He's a versitile horse and doesn't need a fast pace to set him up. He'll be much closer to the pace at Pimlico. Also, the Preakness will be a tougher test for him than the Belmont which is his wheelhouse at a mile and 1/2.

Both SS and EG were great horses. I do think a different jockey for EG would have made the outcomes different - especialy the Preakness. I do not think Shug mismanaged him. And I sincerely hope you are wrong about Orb.

No matter what, the record books won't be changed. Despite all the analysis - after the races are run, the results remain the same.

e1 - You are probably correct about EG vs Orb. If they were both in this year's TC, EG would, of course, be the overwhelming favorite. My point is that with the horses racing now, I hope Orb proves to be a cut (or 2 or 3!) above the competition. I like to think the Old School is the Correct School.