What I Think I Think
Feb 6, 2016 11:33:42 GMT -5
Post by Evelyn on Feb 6, 2016 11:33:42 GMT -5
I really like Johnny D! And I agree with him - except re Songbird. But Mack will like what he says!
What I Think I Think
By Johnny D
Xpressbet
Every game has its statistical Everest. In sports wagering that number’s around 54%. It’s a threshold where the player finally turns a profit against the book by picking more winners than losers and covering the vig. For horseplayers that number’s not as easily determined. For example, the public, represented by the starting favorite in each race, picks around 30% winners. However, those choices return such short prices that payoffs don’t overhaul takeout and actually end up losing money in the long run.
I feel the same about my opinions…or, more accurately, my thoughts: They turn out to be right a decent percentage of the time, but end up losing money in the long run.
I differentiate these musings as ‘thoughts’ rather than ‘opinions’ because while a thought can just float into your head, an opinion suggests a more serious commitment--one ‘formed’ over time. Thoughts merely are ‘borrowed’ out of thin air. Of course, properly fermented thoughts can morph into opinions. That hasn’t happened with what’s presented below. That’s why it’s basically what I think I think and little more.
I think I think that…while Mohaymen was impressive in winning the Holy Bull, I’m not ready to call the florist to order him a blanket of roses. For starters, he’s got to overcome the 22-year-old Remsen curse (in that time only one Remsen winner has hit the board in Louisville). I’m also not that impressed with the foes he’s whipped. That Holy Bull lineup was a toothless as Moms Mabley. Also, Mohaymen seems to be a light-framed horse and I wonder how well he will handle the road ahead. For the record, I really would like to see trainer Kiaran McLaughlin win a Kentucky Derby. He’s a top-notch conditioner and an even better guy. I wish him all the best, but I don’t think I’m on the Mohaymen bandwagon yet.
I think I think that…Songbird is a monster! I know, that declaration’s no reason to stop the presses. After all, she was the unanimous selection as last season’s top 2-year-old filly. That award, however, doesn’t guarantees success at 3. In this case, though, after having watched video of Songbird’s recent training sessions…Wow! She looks fantastic! She’s bigger, stronger and faster than last year when she absolutely dominated her classmates. I’m not ready to say she can handle the boys in the Kentucky Derby, but I’m not going to say she can’t either…and that’s saying something about her and about the boys.
I think I think that…Mor Spirit is Bob Baffert’s best chance to make it back to the Louisville winner’s circle. I really like what I’ve seen of this one’s workouts so far in 2016. We’ll get to see him perform in the afternoon Saturday at Santa Anita in the Bob Lewis, and if the book matches the cover we’re in for a treat. Mor Spirit was a solid 2-year-old, but needed to mature a bit to become one of the ones at 3. From what I’ve seen in the morning he’s moved forward in the last few months and that’s enough to put him in the soph Kentucky Derby blender.
I think I think that…Nyquist is a legitimate warrior. Frankly, I didn’t like his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Going in he was unbeaten in four starts, but I wasn’t overwhelmed by his victories over basically the same horse—Swipe--in each race.
Assigned the far outside post going a mile and one-sixteenth at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile seemed a death sentence for the son of Uncle Mo. But it didn’t matter. He rose to the occasion, cleared all hurdles and got home one-half length in front of…well, Swipe. Who else?
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners traditionally don’t fare well in the following year’s Kentucky Derby--since 1984, only Street Sense in 2006 hit that double—so odds are seriously stacked against Nyquist. He is scheduled to race Feb. 15 in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita and then to ship to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby (where a $1 million victory bonus awaits). However, if Nyquist finally does make it to Louisville still unbeaten I will him seriously. And I’ll know which horse to play beneath him in the exacta!
I think I think that…Beholder is awesome…but 5-1 in February to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November? C’mon, man! She’s favored over 33 other runners to turn the trick--most closely followed by California Chrome, 7-1, Dortmund, 10-1 and Frosted, 12-1. These and other BC Classic Future Wagers can be had at the Race and Sports Book in the Wynn Las Vegas. John Avello calls the shots there and he’s the most horseplayer friendly bet-taker in Sin City. So, if you’re in the neighborhood, drop by and play in his sandbox. But, please, do me a favor and don’t take a short number on any horse to win the BC Classic.
Check it out: Beholder, an amazing 6-year-old mare, has just arrived at trainer Richard Mandella’s barn after spending several months at the farm recovering from a minor ailment that forced her unfortunate scratch from last season’s BC Classic. ‘Chrome recently arrived in Dubai and is preparing for a pair of races there, including the World Cup. Dortmund has missed his last two appointed starts—in the San Pasqual against California Chrome and in Saturday’s San Antonio. While it doesn’t appear anything serious is wrong with the horse, trainer Bob Baffert is not satisfied with the way Dortmund is training. Frosted will race for the first time this year in Dubai and is being pointed toward the World Cup.
Any of that scream ‘BC Classic Cinch?’
Race On!
What I Think I Think
By Johnny D
Xpressbet
Every game has its statistical Everest. In sports wagering that number’s around 54%. It’s a threshold where the player finally turns a profit against the book by picking more winners than losers and covering the vig. For horseplayers that number’s not as easily determined. For example, the public, represented by the starting favorite in each race, picks around 30% winners. However, those choices return such short prices that payoffs don’t overhaul takeout and actually end up losing money in the long run.
I feel the same about my opinions…or, more accurately, my thoughts: They turn out to be right a decent percentage of the time, but end up losing money in the long run.
I differentiate these musings as ‘thoughts’ rather than ‘opinions’ because while a thought can just float into your head, an opinion suggests a more serious commitment--one ‘formed’ over time. Thoughts merely are ‘borrowed’ out of thin air. Of course, properly fermented thoughts can morph into opinions. That hasn’t happened with what’s presented below. That’s why it’s basically what I think I think and little more.
I think I think that…while Mohaymen was impressive in winning the Holy Bull, I’m not ready to call the florist to order him a blanket of roses. For starters, he’s got to overcome the 22-year-old Remsen curse (in that time only one Remsen winner has hit the board in Louisville). I’m also not that impressed with the foes he’s whipped. That Holy Bull lineup was a toothless as Moms Mabley. Also, Mohaymen seems to be a light-framed horse and I wonder how well he will handle the road ahead. For the record, I really would like to see trainer Kiaran McLaughlin win a Kentucky Derby. He’s a top-notch conditioner and an even better guy. I wish him all the best, but I don’t think I’m on the Mohaymen bandwagon yet.
I think I think that…Songbird is a monster! I know, that declaration’s no reason to stop the presses. After all, she was the unanimous selection as last season’s top 2-year-old filly. That award, however, doesn’t guarantees success at 3. In this case, though, after having watched video of Songbird’s recent training sessions…Wow! She looks fantastic! She’s bigger, stronger and faster than last year when she absolutely dominated her classmates. I’m not ready to say she can handle the boys in the Kentucky Derby, but I’m not going to say she can’t either…and that’s saying something about her and about the boys.
I think I think that…Mor Spirit is Bob Baffert’s best chance to make it back to the Louisville winner’s circle. I really like what I’ve seen of this one’s workouts so far in 2016. We’ll get to see him perform in the afternoon Saturday at Santa Anita in the Bob Lewis, and if the book matches the cover we’re in for a treat. Mor Spirit was a solid 2-year-old, but needed to mature a bit to become one of the ones at 3. From what I’ve seen in the morning he’s moved forward in the last few months and that’s enough to put him in the soph Kentucky Derby blender.
I think I think that…Nyquist is a legitimate warrior. Frankly, I didn’t like his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Going in he was unbeaten in four starts, but I wasn’t overwhelmed by his victories over basically the same horse—Swipe--in each race.
Assigned the far outside post going a mile and one-sixteenth at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile seemed a death sentence for the son of Uncle Mo. But it didn’t matter. He rose to the occasion, cleared all hurdles and got home one-half length in front of…well, Swipe. Who else?
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners traditionally don’t fare well in the following year’s Kentucky Derby--since 1984, only Street Sense in 2006 hit that double—so odds are seriously stacked against Nyquist. He is scheduled to race Feb. 15 in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita and then to ship to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby (where a $1 million victory bonus awaits). However, if Nyquist finally does make it to Louisville still unbeaten I will him seriously. And I’ll know which horse to play beneath him in the exacta!
I think I think that…Beholder is awesome…but 5-1 in February to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November? C’mon, man! She’s favored over 33 other runners to turn the trick--most closely followed by California Chrome, 7-1, Dortmund, 10-1 and Frosted, 12-1. These and other BC Classic Future Wagers can be had at the Race and Sports Book in the Wynn Las Vegas. John Avello calls the shots there and he’s the most horseplayer friendly bet-taker in Sin City. So, if you’re in the neighborhood, drop by and play in his sandbox. But, please, do me a favor and don’t take a short number on any horse to win the BC Classic.
Check it out: Beholder, an amazing 6-year-old mare, has just arrived at trainer Richard Mandella’s barn after spending several months at the farm recovering from a minor ailment that forced her unfortunate scratch from last season’s BC Classic. ‘Chrome recently arrived in Dubai and is preparing for a pair of races there, including the World Cup. Dortmund has missed his last two appointed starts—in the San Pasqual against California Chrome and in Saturday’s San Antonio. While it doesn’t appear anything serious is wrong with the horse, trainer Bob Baffert is not satisfied with the way Dortmund is training. Frosted will race for the first time this year in Dubai and is being pointed toward the World Cup.
Any of that scream ‘BC Classic Cinch?’
Race On!