teenagewildlife
Active Member
my mama said you better get things done, you better not mess with major tom
Posts: 761 
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Post by teenagewildlife on Oct 26, 2015 14:41:45 GMT -5
I've only been handicapping for a few years so forgive me if I am a little green in my reasoning and if I am a little loose at the lip; however I know that there is a frequent debate across the horse racing community as to whether or not the prestigious meets are valuable/profitable or an outright dangerous proposition for horse players, but this is my perspective and i feel that it is important since I am preparing an interesting challenge next month, Teen's Cafe.
Tracks loaded up with claiming races, to me, are a) difficult to handicap yet b) that difficulty doesn't translate to better wagering opportunities especially because of field size and pool size; others bemoan the risk that is involved at tracks like belmont, saratoga, keeneland, kentucky downs because of maiden special weights and allowance turf races, etc... but i really feel that the handicapping curve in many cases is actually more clear.. i feel that you can at least find one in form horse at a decent price at those tracks..
Tracks like Parx, Finger Lakes, Thistledown, Zia, Turf Paradice, Finger Lakes.. I can look at a race and you are telling me that with 3/4 of the field going through either a) trainer changes (for the nth time) or having ran at a gillion different lengths, all be it with limited workout history, that those races are BETTER waging opportunities?
For grinders, perhaps. But this hobby is not for grinders, IMO, unless you are a challenge person or treating it like the morning puzzle.
There are tracks that I believe fall betwixt and between the dichotomy I note in the above paragraphs.. I think tracks like Ellis, CD, Monmouth, Laurel, Arlington, Santa Anita offer good value, wagering opportunities a few races a card... probably Allowance or Optional Claimers (and maiden special weights)...
So in essence unless you are truly a gambler for the sake of gambling (I hate the term degenerate gambler) I just can't buy that claiming races are profitable in the long run... give me maiden special weights and 7f or 1 3/16 turf races anyday.. and at a notable track like Saratoga or Keeneland.
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lt1
Moderator 
Posts: 824
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Post by lt1 on Oct 26, 2015 19:24:14 GMT -5
Teen as you may know I'm one of those who prefer to play the mid to small tracks with Parx being my favorite. I live 10 min from Bel and 25 from Aqu and was strictly a NY player when a I started in 1980 and all the way until 5 yrs ago. By keeping detail records I have discovered that races for older horses at any level are the most dependable around. Yes I will still play a NY track when I see the type of races I prefer to play dominate the card. I like Aqu races on the inner track and play them a lot in the winter. I salute you if you can make sense of mdn races with all FTS or turf races where several horses have never been on the surface. I don't know what you consider a grinder but I know I do well enough at the tracks I play and of all the cappers I associate with none make a living on big scores but depend on a consistent winning percent with a positive roi and most avoid NY most of the time. Like anything else one must be familiar with the tracks they play and as you may know at almost every track most races are won by 20% of the trainers[give or take] on the grounds. May I suggest that you keep records of how you do with all the types of races you bet and get a picture of how you really are doing in each type. This is how I found out my win pct dropped 15% when I was playing mdn and turf races for younger horses 2 or 3 yr olds. I wish you good luck in your wagering.
Tim
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Oct 26, 2015 21:28:18 GMT -5
I find that the easiest races to handicap are those where the horses have been running at relatively the same tracks with very few that are coming from totally different circuits. For instance I find one of the easiest handicapping is Santa Anita since 95% who run there either run at Santa Anita or Del Mar. Therefore you can compare exactly who they ran against and how well they did and you can form in your own mind a hierarchy of class level of each horse in the race to some extent. However when you get a horse from Golden Gate or Emerald Downs in the race you start wondering what class level that horse really is because you haven't been keeping up with those tracks enough to know. See what I mean.
The most difficult tracks to me are Keeneland, Saratoga and Churchill. Here you have horses that are coming from all over the country so if you are not playing the tracks they are coming from and understand the class of horses they have been running against you are lost. Then at these tracks there are all the MSW races and then there are all the horses who have been laid up for a long time that all of a sudden they are running again and then there are just horses who take to those tracks and run the races of their lives. These are the most complex and perplexing race tracks.
Belmont and Aqueduct are like the Santa Anita and Del Mar circuit but the difference is the same horses run against the same horses over and over and over like last week with Lubash, Karafa, Notacatbutalama, Orino running against each other over and over and over it is sickening.
In summary I think the best racing whether it is claiming or stakes is when the horses are running the same circuit but the circuit is big enough and the pool of available horses are large enough that they have not faced each other over and over where they just take turns at winning (and then you can have a few coming from other circuits but not where you have 8 out of 10 horses coming from very different tracks like KEE, SAR, CD). It becomes impossible because you then have to handicap every track that every horse has came from.
But what you can do at Santa Anita and similar tracks where the horses have been running on the same circuit but not against each other a lot, is find in the PP's the same horses that the horses in a given race ran against in the past even if the horses in the race never ran against each other directly, and who those same horses who they have been running against in the past have been running against and compare how each horse in the race ran against those same horses. You will find that you can a lot of times get it down to one common horse in the PP's of all horses in the race that they have in common and that whoever ran the best against that very tough horse or ran the best against a horse who ran good against that tough horse will be my top contender in the race. Of course some horses are running against a totally different group and class that you cannot even match up to a named horse in the PP's. Like Win The Space at Santa Anita in the 7th Sunday. Are you kidding me the horse ran first two races with Fame and Power, Wolf Man Rocket and Commute which are totally over the head of any horse in the race and no one in the race crossed those horses paths as far as I know. Then he ran last two on turf and in last ran up front an faded in Gr 2 turf against Om. There was nothing in the race that ran with the likes of what he ran against and he should have been 9/5. That is my #1 method of picking - comparing what each horse has been running with directly or indirectly and how well. At KEE, SAR and CD this becomes almost impossible except for some races.
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Jon
Administrator 
Posts: 4,669
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Post by Jon on Oct 27, 2015 0:55:51 GMT -5
Do believe in horses for courses. Disagree re NY Nick - lots of shippers. Watch out for the ones from Finger
Lakes!
TW - Think you have to pick which races to play regardless of the track. Don't have to play them all. Think maiden races are usually a crap shoot.
Good advice LT. Always better to follow 1 or 2 tracks than bet them all. I had a good return at Laurel over the summer - especially the turf races for older horses. And I kept notes and tracked some of them. I also like Big A in the winter!
GL to everyone with all their bets.
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