lt1
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Posts: 824
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Post by lt1 on Jun 19, 2015 15:11:44 GMT -5
I have read both on this site and others that low level claimers are the most unreliable horses on the planet. I say nothing is further from the facts. If one follows the mid to low level tracks they would find that just as at the big tracks 20% of the trainers win 80% of the races. Yes it is true that one may have to dig a little further into a horses' pps but that's why they give 10-12 lines to view. In races for lower level horses one must know the definition of what races are failures vs ones that are just a poor performance and can be forgiven. Believe me there's a big difference. Also pay particular attention to the stretch call as the fin call may look poor but the horse may well have run a very acceptable race indeed. Too many folks get hung up on the last or last 2 running lines and fail to examine the whole picture. So before looking down ones nose at these types of races do some homework you might just be pleasantly surprised.
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Post by mackdaddy on Jun 19, 2015 15:42:08 GMT -5
Lt, there is GOD-Awful racing all across the country. Can't wait for Toga and Del Mar
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Post by mackdaddy on Jun 19, 2015 15:59:31 GMT -5
Speaking of which, Gantry ran 3rd in a O.C. 25k at LAD earlier. This is the kind of shit that pisses me off about trainers/connections. He was once a good horse that ran against the likes of Shackleford. Talk about a sore ass horse. RETIRE HIM!
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lt1
Moderator
Posts: 824
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Post by lt1 on Jun 19, 2015 17:50:09 GMT -5
I'll leave those 2 tourists trap all to you Mack. Good luck.
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cait
Active Member
Posts: 3,821 
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Post by cait on Jun 19, 2015 19:47:45 GMT -5
agree completely lt! mack - we should email maggie moss
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Post by mackdaddy on Jun 20, 2015 4:55:19 GMT -5
Evelyn Benoit owns the horse. I rode him at FG when I had Eramias book.
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lt1
Moderator
Posts: 824
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Post by lt1 on Jun 20, 2015 9:55:03 GMT -5
Example of Failure vs Poor Perfotmance.
The following is from a book by Dr William Quirin a noted author who had several books on handicapping in the 70s'. His work was done by computer and he was the creator of the Quirin Speed Points. The definition of a failure is a bad race since the horses last good race if in that race the horse failed to do what it accomplished in the good race or failed to accomplish what it must do today. If there is a valid excuse for the race such as 1st race from 30 day l/o,or trouble such as blocked ,bumped,checked, wrong surface ie turf last dirt today, 3yr old vs older last back vs 3yr today then the race is forgiven a not a failure. Note bore out,lugged in or bled are not considered valid excuses. Here's the example
horse a last 4 lines
6f $13k claiming fin4th by 4
8.5f $13k claiming fin 8th by12
6.5f 16k claiming fin 5th by7
6f 10k claiming fin 2nd by.
On the surface some might believe this has is exhibiting poor form but let's take a closer look. The horses last good race was 4 back against 10k claimers. the last 3 races are not good but in fact might not necessarily be failures. If the horse is entered against 10k claimers today at a sprint distance then none of the last 3 races are failures since the horse in the last good race did not indicate it could compete against higher nor does it face that level today. Now if todays race is a sprint vs 13k horses the horse has 1 failure its' last race. If entered vs $16k sprinters today it has 2 failures races 1 &3. If entered vs $10k routers it has no failures, if against 13k routers its last 2 are failures, if vs $16k routers the last 3 are failures.
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lt1
Moderator
Posts: 824
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Post by lt1 on Jun 20, 2015 10:27:27 GMT -5
Here is the definition of contender selection process published by Tom Brohamer in his book Modern Pace Handicapping. Tom was also a teaching member of the Sartin Methodology.
a. horses staying in the same class must have been up close at the stretch call or finish last race. Up close for a sprint is 21/2 lengths for a routes to 8.5 3.5 lengths over 9f 4 lengths.
b. horses dropping 1 or more level must have been up close at the 2nd call or later
c. horses going up in class after a loss are bad bets.
d. horses dropping after a win should be avoided.
e. horses going up in class 2 levels is a very positive sign.
f. horses returning from a layoff of 30 days or more should show a work out pattern of every 5-7 days with 5f works preferred, check to see how horse has done in prior layoff situations and how does it match up in todays race.
Since todays horses are race differently today I expand the layoff to 45 days.
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