Fear of Favorites
May 18, 2015 21:56:13 GMT -5
Post by Evelyn on May 18, 2015 21:56:13 GMT -5
I think what he says is true!
Picking winners is the best handicapping strategy
By Jay Cronley
ESPN
One of the most costly fears around the horse race track is fear of favorites.
It can be more harmful than the fear of the kitchen at the track.
Whereas it is great fun to beat a favorite, there's this to keep in mind: all favorites are not alike. American Pharoah is not like the even-money horse in a $5,000 claiming race at Charles Town, where you might beat the chalk with a farm pet. You would have to bring something fancy to compete with Pharoah.
The goal of horse race handicapping is not to beat the favorite. The goal is to make some money. For its last three or four races, American Pharoah has been a gimme in any pick 3, 4 or 6 sequence in which it has been involved.
Knowing which favorite you can't beat is a trait that is often indicative of good horse handicapping sense.
Many public handicappers who would have a hard time picking what day tomorrow is act as though picking a favorite is a sign of weakness. They're almost reluctant to recommend something that would pay almost a 100 percent return on the investment in a few minutes. Here's what's much weaker than playing American Pharoah in the Derby and the Preakness: playing something else.
Two streaks held steady at the Preakness. The trendy horse, Firing Line, barely got around the race track. Wet tracks never help an outside horse unless it can get to the lead. Trendy horses make money disappear. And the "value" jinx was once again a sure thing, as one TV picker said he was looking for "value" and then tabbed Firing Line.
The place to look for "value" is at the pawn shop.
Sure, Materiality and another party crasher or two will have the speed to test Pharoah in New York. But this is no fair weather runner from California like California Chrome and Dortmund.
Hopefully we're past the point where certain of the handicapping set think that the extra distance in New York will benefit a closer. The winner will be near the front. Like all the great ones.
What will a Triple Crown winner do for this country?
Make us happy.
What's not to like about a great animal.
Picking winners is the best handicapping strategy
By Jay Cronley
ESPN
One of the most costly fears around the horse race track is fear of favorites.
It can be more harmful than the fear of the kitchen at the track.
Whereas it is great fun to beat a favorite, there's this to keep in mind: all favorites are not alike. American Pharoah is not like the even-money horse in a $5,000 claiming race at Charles Town, where you might beat the chalk with a farm pet. You would have to bring something fancy to compete with Pharoah.
The goal of horse race handicapping is not to beat the favorite. The goal is to make some money. For its last three or four races, American Pharoah has been a gimme in any pick 3, 4 or 6 sequence in which it has been involved.
Knowing which favorite you can't beat is a trait that is often indicative of good horse handicapping sense.
Many public handicappers who would have a hard time picking what day tomorrow is act as though picking a favorite is a sign of weakness. They're almost reluctant to recommend something that would pay almost a 100 percent return on the investment in a few minutes. Here's what's much weaker than playing American Pharoah in the Derby and the Preakness: playing something else.
Two streaks held steady at the Preakness. The trendy horse, Firing Line, barely got around the race track. Wet tracks never help an outside horse unless it can get to the lead. Trendy horses make money disappear. And the "value" jinx was once again a sure thing, as one TV picker said he was looking for "value" and then tabbed Firing Line.
The place to look for "value" is at the pawn shop.
Sure, Materiality and another party crasher or two will have the speed to test Pharoah in New York. But this is no fair weather runner from California like California Chrome and Dortmund.
Hopefully we're past the point where certain of the handicapping set think that the extra distance in New York will benefit a closer. The winner will be near the front. Like all the great ones.
What will a Triple Crown winner do for this country?
Make us happy.
What's not to like about a great animal.
