Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Apr 29, 2015 21:06:36 GMT -5
I told you it was my mistake that I forgot that KEE put in a new dirt surface last year, so it was not that fast after all. It was not that slow either. It was only run 1 second slower than the SA Derby although SA is I believe a much faster track. It was only run 1 1/5s slower than the ARK derby. Also note that the fractions in the Bluegrass were much slower (48 - 1:12) than both of those races which were about 46 - 1:10/2 so Carpe Diem must have been doing some hell of running after the 6F point to be about 2 seconds behind at 6F point but only one second behind at the end.
And you cannot say that 48 - 1:12 fractions was only 2 seconds behind 46 - 1:10/2 fractions because in horse racing times are exponentially related not linearly. Therefore at the halfway point the Bluegrass was way way behind the other races but picked up tremendously at the end.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 21:42:32 GMT -5
not going to argue as i have already stated and explained my opinions. not going to do it again. we will see.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Apr 29, 2015 22:03:19 GMT -5
No need to argue because the points you made were very good and I cannot argue with them. However, sometimes in horse racing it is not about being a bean counter (ticks of clock counter). It is about reading between the lines to really figure out who is the best horseflesh. Honestly I have not come to a firm conclusion because all of these horses have been avoiding each other which makes it very difficult. So I am looking at the races but also for other signs other than strictly the times of races. Like I said I think that any of the top four can win that I mentioned before and also any of the next lower tier horses like International Star. I think in the end though the class will win. The horse that wins will be established as the class and will then be the horse to beat throughout 2015. Who will that be? I am just saying that possibly Carpe Diem may be the true class based on all the signs. On the other hand American Pharoah worked 6F in 1:10/2 last month. That was really impressive. This is going to be a real good race with Dortmond also who is undefeated. This will be the best and most exciting derby in years.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 22:17:01 GMT -5
its not about counting beans. that would be just comparing times with nothing else going into it. im comparing interior fractions, final time, closing times, strength of race, and more importantly, time of race compared to other comparable races on the same card. but whatever man. im done with this conversation. i still have work to do so please do not muck up this thread comparing your opinions to mine. im sure ou can start your own if you want others to knoow your thought process on your handicappping.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Apr 29, 2015 22:22:24 GMT -5
Hands UP - Don't Shoot! LOL.
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Jon
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Post by Jon on Apr 30, 2015 0:06:25 GMT -5
Ditto Can't play Baffert because of odds but AM Pharoah and Dormand belong in boxes. Like the NY horse so much so much but can't name him? Frosted? LOL He is by Tapit - I know Ev is looking at him. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 0:48:52 GMT -5
Ditto Can't play Baffert because of odds but AM Pharoah and Dormand belong in boxes. Like the NY horse so much so much but can't name him? Frosted? LOL He is by Tapit - I know Ev is looking at him. oy vey!! im dead!!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 0:50:10 GMT -5
wood memorial runners
im supposed to hate this race, right? just want to clarify that before i get started. also a point to those who play aqueduct/belmont, which i dont. if a horse call juba has not run back yet out of this race, watch out for him and mark him down as a horse to play next time, even on the rise. i dont bet or watch this hell hole so he may have already returned. i dont know. now back to the wood. on a day when the last seven races were run on dirt and speed did very well, going wire to wire twice and holding on for 2nd twice, once at 50/1 odds, frosted came from second to last into slow crawling fractions and went 3-4 wide the entire journey. a very hard, horrible trip. he also ran the mile and an 1/8th in 1.50.31, much faster then the 1.52.17 (9 lengths) it took condo commando to run the grade 2 gazelle stakes 2 races earlier. also look at the last half of the race. frosted ran his first half mile in 49.80 behind a crawling pace. condo commando ran her half in a normal clip of 48.06, almost nine lengths faster. that means frosted ran the last 5 furlongs of his race, at the same distance, almost 18 lengths faster then the winner of the gazelle. that is amazing no matter how you slice it. now as far as the other races on that day go, there were 4 7f races and 1 one mile race. timewise, this was clearly not a fast day. 25k claimers went 1.24.72 in the last. grade 1 older sprinters went 1.23.64 in the grade 1 carter handicap. 3 year old colts went 1.24 72 in the grade 3 bay shore (although the 2nd place finisher lord nelson, for baffert, had about 10 lengths worth of trouble and was tons the best). and juba went 1.23.58 in winning a nw2x optional claimer. all very slow races for their class levels other then the juba race. the only other race was a nw2x optional claimer at a mile won by a 60/1 shot in 1.37.86. like i said, not a fast track at all. but frosted still ran well in decent time. also something to note..........frosted ran every split in the race other then the last faster then the previous. the farther they went, the faster he got. his own personal splits were as follows...........25.40, 24.40, 24.06, 24.00, and then 12.45 for the last 1/8th which was a little slower but still strong over a slow trsack after a rough trip. yes, i know the downside is it appears to be a bad field he beat, what with daredevil, an over rated pletcher sprinter who they paid the normal 8 trillion dollars for or so being the dead money chalk and el kabeir who had been beating the usual aqueduct winter rats as the second choice, but lets just overlook the competition and look at frosted's own personal performance and realize this is a horse who is getting better, will love more distance based on his running style (i dont ant to hear about tapit being a miler. watch him run, he can go the distance.), and is going to be 15-20 to one. also godolphin is overdue to break through in this race and finally has a horse wh cn do it the right way instead of campaigning in dubai and then shipping here. that doesnt work. this may finally be their year with an under the radar horse. anyone else? not really. tencedor should bounce off of that effort and even if he doesnt, frosted was at least 4-5 lengths better then him last time anyway. el kabeir? blah. not interested. i like frosted though for at least a strong exotics partner and maybe the win play.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 2:11:10 GMT -5
sunland derby runners
not much to say about this race or day. its a simple case of has firing line improved enough to beat dortmund and the others or not. there really is no comparing times of the track or runners on this day. this is not a track with good enough runners to even be comparable to a derby contender. its sort of like a horse coming in from pimlico or laurel. tracks that are just irrelevant in major racing today. firing line basically ran 13 lengths or more faster then every other horse on the card except for one that were in route races. the only horse that even cam close still ran about 4 lengths slower, but what does it mean? nothing because these horses arent major players on any major circuit. so now its just a guess of who has matured more in the last 2-3 months, firing line or dortmund. there really isnt much between them and in my eyes if you play one you have to play the other. but the difference is in the win pools you will get probably 7-2 on dortmund and maybe 12 to 15 to one on firing line. doesnt take a genius to figure out what to do there now does it? use them both in exotics and bet line to win between the two of them. but that doesnt mean either one is better then a couple others in here who will also be big prices.he could win for sure and it wouldnt be a major shock, but im thinking a couple others are a little better.
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Jon
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Post by Jon on Apr 30, 2015 14:45:11 GMT -5
Ditto Can't play Baffert because of odds but AM Pharoah and Dormand belong in boxes. Like the NY horse so much so much but can't name him? Frosted? LOL He is by Tapit - I know Ev is looking at him. oy vey!! im dead!!
LMAO - At least she's off of Mr Z but bet she sneaks a bet in on him! |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 20:02:15 GMT -5
florida derby runners
so if we disregard all of the turf races, we are left with 5 comparable dirt races, all at different distances. it is obvious even to the most mentally challenged that this was not a fast track on this day. speed faired well in 2 0r 3 of the races and closers well in the others. a very fair track as far as that goes. but a couple things to point out. the grade 2 oaks was a very slow race for the level and i would not play any of those fillies back if they are in the ky. oaks. that race was run about 11 lengths slower then the florida derby, a very poor comparison when matched up against the differential between the males and females at the other tracks we have looked at. although the winner was btl and mtb, it was still a very suspect race for the day and level. in fact there was a maiden special weight run one race earlier that, admittedly was run around one turn, but still adjusted timewise, was a better race then the oaks. now the winner of that race did freak and won by 8 lengths, but still, the overall assessment by me is to avoid those oaks fillies like the plague. now the two races for older males on this day were also run in slower then usual times with the older horses pants on fire and confrontation running 1.24.61 for 7 furlongs and crawling home in 13.16 for the last 1/8th (very slow finish for a 7f race) and older horses commisioner and sr. quisqueyano running a mile and three sixteenths in 1.58.60 and finishing in 19.88 for the last 3/16ths (not nearly as bad but not fantastic and still slow for the overall time). the florida derby went about 2 lengths slower then the older horses in the commissioner race, but the bad part was the finishing time for the derby. they were falling apart late coming hom in 13.73 at a a mile and an eighth. drag that out to the distance of the commisioner race and instead of being 2 lengths slower it is more like 4 lengths slower. those older horses went slower early but were clearly finishing better, actually running about 9-10 lengths faster from the first 6 furlongs to the finish. i dont know how much either one of materiality or upstart wants that extra 1/8th of a mile. im not sure why or how or even if that beyer number is right for that race, but i dont think i believe it. actually, upstart would have been my first or second pick for this race if you asked me 2 months ago. but i just dont know what to make out of him now. he missed a word about a month ago and i know he wasnt doing great. since then? i havent really heard much so i dont know. i do know that he only got beat a length in there and if he wasnt 100% for that race also, then he can definately turn the tables on materiality. but its hard to like one and not like the other, and at the same time, maybe the beyer is inflated and the race is no good? i dont know. all i know is it was slow and the day was slow. the other horse exiting that race has no chance and is a line out. another confusing situation with two horses who in any other year could actually be the favorites but may be 10-1 this year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 21:18:38 GMT -5
so now the question is................what does all of this mean? shit, i dont know!!
to me there 4 classifications of horses in this race.
double line outs- horses who have no chance to win or hit the board.
line outs- horses who either have very small chances to spring a huge upset or horses who have moderate to average chances to win but will be an underlayed price and are not worth the risk for the reward to play first or second in a race like this.
contenders- horses who are definate contenders at legitimate to large prices or horses who are very strong contenders but not worth keying as your top pick because the price will be to short. however you cannot totally leave them out of your exotics because they are to good to bet against completely.
horses to key- major players at big value or standouts at moderate to low value.
to me these horses fit into these categories as follows............
double line outs-
ocho ocho ocho
tencedur
danzig moon
bolo
itsaknockout
keen ice
war story
mr. z
franmento
line outs-
carpe diem
mubtaahij
el kabeir
far right
contenders-
materiality
upstart
firing line
horses to key-
dortmund
international star
frosted
american pharoh
how will i bet this race? i will post that later. right now, i need a slurpee and coney dog from sonic.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2015 16:59:13 GMT -5
now go back and look at my analysis of the keeneland preps and see what i said. if you like carpe diem at all or any horse coming out of the bluegrass, then you had to think lovely maria was a lock in the oaks, which i did. i still dont like the blue grass runners, but this was the only filly prep race that wasnt at least 8 or 9 ;engths slower then the colts preps on the same day. it was only about 2 lengths slower then the bluegrass. i just wish chatterbox could have run second.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on May 1, 2015 22:03:25 GMT -5
With Lovely Maria winning today I would think that makes the Bluegrass looks like a very good race now. The Ashland was run in fractions of 48/2, 1:12/4 with a end time of a 94 speed rating and Lovely Maria had little difficulty with the best fillies in the country today coming out of that race as the winner.
The Bluegrass ran on the same day and longer race was run in 48, 1:12 fractions and finished in 99 speed rating and won by Carpe Diem. That sure makes Carpe Diem look very good now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2015 22:07:22 GMT -5
lolol keep handicapping like captain obvious and miss the valid points. carpe diem is not running against lovely maria just like lovely maria wasnt running against the colts today. can you not see my points or do you just refuse to try to learn anything?
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on May 1, 2015 22:11:56 GMT -5
Honestly I find it hard to read and understand your points because you ramble and are not focused enough when making your points. And then you have everything in one long paragraph - I feel like I have ADD about halfway through. If you would instead make your points in bullet format I could understand exactly what your points are.
Could you please summarize your main points in bullet form for me?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2015 3:38:00 GMT -5
yeah sure. let me bend over backwards to accomodate a total dickwad. if you cant grasp or understand what i am saying, thats not my problem. it doesnt surprise me because plain and simple and not trying to sound condescending, but you are beneath me both hsndicapping and betting wise. it really gets tiresome both arguing with you and trying to explain things to you that you cant grasp. you want to talk about rambling on? look at one of your posts trying to explain your backwards theory about what class means. btw, how are titletown five and that other donkey doing? i asked you specifically not to muck up thiss thread or argue on it, and you cant even respect that one request because you want to fight. you want to be a dick. you want and need the attention because you certainly cant get any based off of your selections. btw, please get your head out of elites ass on that other site as well. are you copy and pasting all of his comments or do you at least retype them after he tells you what to say to me? you are so pathetically obvious that it is really sad.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2015 3:41:01 GMT -5
and im quite sure you do have ADD.
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