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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 1:37:08 GMT -5
im going to try to make this real simple for all the cappernicks of the world. this is a series of posts i am making analyzing each prep race and the horses coming out of it going into the derby. if you wish to comment on it or ask me a question, by all means go ahead and do it. however do not clutter it up with your own picks and commentary. if thats what you want to post then start your own thread. im not interested in your picks or reasoning as to why you think what you do. truthfully, id appreciate it if you stay out of it altogether cappernick.
i cannot post all of this at one time so i will try to do at least one prep race per day leading up to the derby.
2015 kentucky deby analysis and overview (before post draw)
horse by horse alalysis
louisiana derby runners a race that was very fast for the day at that track. definately one of the better races timewise to exit. the derby was run 8-9 lengths faster then the filly division was a couple of races earlier, won by a im a chatterbox who most consider a major player in the oaks. the derby was also run faster then the older horse stake just prior in which moreno ran 3rd. what did he come back to do? also the final 1/8th of the derby was very strong compared to both of those races. while the oaks pace and splits were very strong and chatterbox continued on to an impressive win after setting them, the final kick and time was slow, going from 47.03-1.11.19- 1.37.40- 1.44.40, finishing in 7.00 flat. the older horse handicap race went a little slower early making it easier on the pacesetters but still fell apart late and they crawled home as well with splits of 47.57-1.11.27-1.36.83- 1.51.07 finishing in 14.24 while the inner closed 6 lengths the last 1/8th. how did moreno win out of this race anyway? meanwhile, the derby pace was much easier but the winner still came from off the pace and finished much stronger the last 1/8th, going 48.59-1.13.27-1.37.94-1.50.67, finishing in 12.73. figure that out. star ran 2 lengths faster then older handicap horses and around 8-9 lengths faster then the filly division for 3 year olds, and finished his last 1/8th 2 lengths faster then the older horse winner and almost 8 lengths faster then moreno, and about 8 lengths faster then chatterbox the last 1/8th!! overall, a very impressive effort for international star.
international star- seems to be improving with every race and is coming out of one of the better races timewise of all the preps. he did get a perfect "moses" trip last time up the rail and that cannot be counted on in a race like this. however he seems to find that same trip everytime and sometimes horses just know how to make their own luck by being versatile and willing to run in tight spots. he is an obvious contender, but also may not have beaten much. when you beat up on the same horse, war story, 3 straight times it usually means there isnt much else in the race. its hard for me to believe he will get that same trip again, and i dont think he is good enough to beat the best in here with a rough trip as this is an exceptional crop this year i believe. he will have to come from well back, probably much farther then he is used to as this race has plenty of either speed types or at least versatile stalker types with more speed then he has. he is a definte exotics contender though at probably close to double digit odds.
war story- had every chance to get by the winner last time in the lane and just plain got outrun through the stretch. he doesnt appear to be improving and has been beaten by a better horse three straight times now. he will have to come from well back as well in this field. i dont see it happening and to me he is a line out. he is owned by a friend of a friend and if i cant cash a big bet or profit on the race, i hope he wins somehow by a niracle occurrance. but as i have stated to others, wishing good things for a friends horse and actually expecting him to win by making up unrealistic scenarios in your head are two different things and not a good or profitable way to handicap or play the horses.
stanford- this one has me stumped. all reasoning says line out. he could not have gotten an easier lead and trip then he did in his last and still couldnt hold off the winner. he is going farther and in a race where most of the main contenders are also front runners or at least have strong positional speed. and he is trained by a guy who is a historical underachiever in this race. HOWEVER, of all of pletchers runners, this one will be the most overlooked and is still improving while his others may have bottomed out or already run their big races. look at it this way. two races back when he was beaten easily by pletchers other horse, he was the 6/5 favorite going in. he took a funny step early in the backstretch and still ran a very respectable race to just get tired the last 3/16ths of a mile. it was his 2nd start off the layoff, a notoriously infamous race for a bounce, and it was his first time around two turns. not only his first around two turns, but also a big step from 6 furlongs to a mile and an eigth. not just a mile or a mnile and a sixteenth. plus look who beat him for christs sake! he had every reason in the world to lose that race and he did. but he did not embarass himself. then he came back last tim and even though he had an easy lead and still got beat, he ran a big race again. he has improved with every start and i just think he is sitting on a big effort. its just to bad this race doesnt set up well for him. if this were a rematch between the top three in the louisiana derby only, i would definately play him right back. but in this race against all of these other horses with speed, he may be up against it. i do however think he will turn out to either be todds best or second best of the all of his 3 year olds this year. if they could get him to rate, he might just be the fox in the henhouse. definately not a line out, but in this race i will tread lightly. he looks to me like more of a preakness type, or even better a miler later in the year. im confused.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 2:56:17 GMT -5
santa anita derby runners
using the last 3 dirt races on the card as ameasuring stick, you see that the santa anita derby also was a good race for the day. being run aproximately 7-8 lengths faster then the oaks, dortmund set a faster opening quarter and about the same at the half. he was then 1 length faster after 6f and 5 lengths faster after a mile. but the most impressive thing is thatboth the oaks and and other dirt race (a sprint) fell apart for the front runners and both went to closers after running slower splits, but the derby winner dortmund kept right on going after setting faster fractions, finishing much better then the pace setters of the other two races. also he did it easily while much the best. the oaks race was win easily as well by steller wind but that was after lumanance and another did all the work cutting out a good pace. dortmund id al the work in his race and kept right on going, finishing faster the the closers in the other races while doing it. admitedly, there was no older horse dirt handicap race to compare it to o that day, and the sprint was for cal bred sprinting fillies, bvut the derby was still definately the best race of the day.
dortmund- what can be said and what needs to be said. he was mtb in his last in an impressive race over a horse who he is clearly better then. barring an unusual occurrance, bolo is not beating him unless the speed just kills each other and all the no speed rats come home on top in kentucky. the only question is how to compare him to the winners of the other preps. definately one of the favorites and also one that i think is rateable and doesnt have to go right to the front like he has been. i think he will sit off of pharoh and a couple others and possibly get the best trip. but im still not sure hes better then pharoh or a couple others. a must use though in exotics at least. i woldnt take less then 4-1 on him if you like him to win though.
bolo- will be coming from the rear and has a style that he could pick up the pieces for a top ten finish or so, but to me he is a line out and i will not be using him. him winning would be equivelant to giacamo winning.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 6:32:46 GMT -5
Wiz very good stuff thanks
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teenagewildlife
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Post by teenagewildlife on Apr 27, 2015 9:42:52 GMT -5
im going to try to make this real simple for all the cappernicks of the world. this is a series of posts i am making analyzing each prep race and the horses coming out of it going into the derby. if you wish to comment on it or ask me a question, by all means go ahead and do it. however do not clutter it up with your own picks and commentary. if thats what you want to post then start your own thread. im not interested in your picks or reasoning as to why you think what you do. truthfully, id appreciate it if you stay out of it altogether cappernick.
i cannot post all of this at one time so i will try to do at least one prep race per day leading up to the derby.
2015 kentucky deby analysis and overview (before post draw)
horse by horse alalysis
louisiana derby runners a race that was very fast for the day at that track. definately one of the better races timewise to exit. the derby was run 8-9 lengths faster then the filly division was a couple of races earlier, won by a im a chatterbox who most consider a major player in the oaks. the derby was also run faster then the older horse stake just prior in which moreno ran 3rd. what did he come back to do? also the final 1/8th of the derby was very strong compared to both of those races. while the oaks pace and splits were very strong and chatterbox continued on to an impressive win after setting them, the final kick and time was slow, going from 47.03-1.11.19- 1.37.40- 1.44.40, finishing in 7.00 flat. the older horse handicap race went a little slower early making it easier on the pacesetters but still fell apart late and they crawled home as well with splits of 47.57-1.11.27-1.36.83- 1.51.07 finishing in 14.24 while the inner closed 6 lengths the last 1/8th. how did moreno win out of this race anyway? meanwhile, the derby pace was much easier but the winner still came from off the pace and finished much stronger the last 1/8th, going 48.59-1.13.27-1.37.94-1.50.67, finishing in 12.73. figure that out. star ran 2 lengths faster then older handicap horses and around 8-9 lengths faster then the filly division for 3 year olds, and finished his last 1/8th 2 lengths faster then the older horse winner and almost 8 lengths faster then moreno, and about 8 lengths faster then chatterbox the last 1/8th!! overall, a very impressive effort for international star.
international star- seems to be improving with every race and is coming out of one of the better races timewise of all the preps. he did get a perfect "moses" trip last time up the rail and that cannot be counted on in a race like this. however he seems to find that same trip everytime and sometimes horses just know how to make their own luck by being versatile and willing to run in tight spots. he is an obvious contender, but also may not have beaten much. when you beat up on the same horse, war story, 3 straight times it usually means there isnt much else in the race. its hard for me to believe he will get that same trip again, and i dont think he is good enough to beat the best in here with a rough trip as this is an exceptional crop this year i believe. he will have to come from well back, probably much farther then he is used to as this race has plenty of either speed types or at least versatile stalker types with more speed then he has. he is a definte exotics contender though at probably close to double digit odds.
war story- had every chance to get by the winner last time in the lane and just plain got outrun through the stretch. he doesnt appear to be improving and has been beaten by a better horse three straight times now. he will have to come from well back as well in this field. i dont see it happening and to me he is a line out. he is owned by a friend of a friend and if i cant cash a big bet or profit on the race, i hope he wins somehow by a niracle occurrance. but as i have stated to others, wishing good things for a friends horse and actually expecting him to win by making up unrealistic scenarios in your head are two different things and not a good or profitable way to handicap or play the horses.
stanford- this one has me stumped. all reasoning says line out. he could not have gotten an easier lead and trip then he did in his last and still couldnt hold off the winner. he is going farther and in a race where most of the main contenders are also front runners or at least have strong positional speed. and he is trained by a guy who is a historical underachiever in this race. HOWEVER, of all of pletchers runners, this one will be the most overlooked and is still improving while his others may have bottomed out or already run their big races. look at it this way. two races back when he was beaten easily by pletchers other horse, he was the 6/5 favorite going in. he took a funny step early in the backstretch and still ran a very respectable race to just get tired the last 3/16ths of a mile. it was his 2nd start off the layoff, a notoriously infamous race for a bounce, and it was his first time around two turns. not only his first around two turns, but also a big step from 6 furlongs to a mile and an eigth. not just a mile or a mnile and a sixteenth. plus look who beat him for christs sake! he had every reason in the world to lose that race and he did. but he did not embarass himself. then he came back last tim and even though he had an easy lead and still got beat, he ran a big race again. he has improved with every start and i just think he is sitting on a big effort. its just to bad this race doesnt set up well for him. if this were a rematch between the top three in the louisiana derby only, i would definately play him right back. but in this race against all of these other horses with speed, he may be up against it. i do however think he will turn out to either be todds best or second best of the all of his 3 year olds this year. if they could get him to rate, he might just be the fox in the henhouse. definately not a line out, but in this race i will tread lightly. he looks to me like more of a preakness type, or even better a miler later in the year. im confused.
really thoughtful and interesting take, esp on stanford. thanks wiz
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cait
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Post by cait on Apr 27, 2015 13:12:43 GMT -5
thanx wiz - agree on most - especially in international star and stanford - am interested in your thoughts for danzig moon - he seems to get better with each race and may be peaking imho
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 14:13:40 GMT -5
one thing you will see when i post again is i will not be playing any horses coming out of the bluegrass.
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cait
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Post by cait on Apr 27, 2015 15:09:23 GMT -5
very slow @keeneland that day - bad for closers
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Post by Evelyn on Apr 27, 2015 21:59:27 GMT -5
Tank you Wiz. I'm sure this was a lot of woek and also sure everyone appreciates!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 22:31:46 GMT -5
very slow @keeneland that day - bad for closers lol. ok. not sure where you got that idea from, but i guess you must see something i dont.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2015 22:32:41 GMT -5
no problem ev. more to follow.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 0:29:52 GMT -5
blue grass runners
in my opinion one of, if not the worst, preps run. i will be playing no one out of this race, as the only contender will be way to short of a price to take considering the race he is exiting. the race was run only about 2 lengths faster then the filly diviosion, the ashland, one race earlier. not only that, but after running a couple lengths faster the first half mile, the colts actually ran slower the last 3 furlongs then the fillies did. so unless you think lovely maria is a mortal lock in the oaks, there isnt much reason to like anyone exiting this race. also, some one made a comment about the track being slow and anti closers on this day. well that is not true at all. look at the 5 dirt races of consequence or run close to the blue grass on that day. 3 sprints, all won by dead closers in good time. princess violet winning the grade 1 madison in 1.22.73 after all the speed stopped. closers running 1-2-3. then kobes back winning from dead last in the grade 3 commomwealth in 1.22.16 after the speed stopped again. in fact the speed set an easy pace and still couldnt hold off the closing winner. then in the finale, a maiden special weight where the 1-2-3 finishers were all closers again, in 1.11.37. not bad for the level at that track. hell, even lovely maria was a stalker and not on the pace early. so what does all this mean? it means the closers coming out of the blue grass had a track to work with that was definately conducive to their style and they still couldnt get there. it also means that the only reason the winner ran a decent race was because there was no pace pressure in his race, yet he was outkicked timewise by the fillies one race earlier. add to that the fact that the horses running behind the winner all looked subpar even going into the race and you have a crapfest of one overbet contender and three overmatched turds coming out of this race. danzig moon being a horse who has never run a race even remotely close to threatening these type of horses with only a maiden win in slow time and a puke in the tampa bay derby, ocho ocho ocho being a regressing horse who has not been competitive this year and whose only distance race that was good was last year in a race that usually doesnt produce much (look who he beat in it last year! lol!), and franmento, nick zitos yearly slow, overmatched tc hopeful who belongs in a much lower class of horses. seems that zito has contracted lukas disease when it comes to having an entrant in the derby and belmont. overall? passeroonie for me!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 7:42:41 GMT -5
Wiz great stuff, the NY Prep races are just like the Blue Grass total toss outs
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 13:57:24 GMT -5
not in my opinion.
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Jon
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Post by Jon on Apr 29, 2015 15:34:10 GMT -5
Can't throw out Carpe Diem. Impossible to compare times from different tracks IMO
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Post by byanose13 on Apr 29, 2015 15:38:41 GMT -5
In my other post leave CD out at your own risk as he looked ready to go. He was jumping all over the track today, I think he is sitting on a big one come Saturday.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 19:28:36 GMT -5
all i can say is care diem wasnt the one i weas referring to when i said i cant eliminate horses from the ny preps. carpe diem comes out of the blue grass, and i hate that race and think it is a race to bet against all exiting it. i definately think carpe diem was best of all those in there, but it was a very weak race. meanwhile the wood while being a wek field for the most part, will be an overlooked race and was a much btl effort by the winner. he may eve be my horse come post time.
so now my question is to jon and cait.................am i still biased? do i let a bias determine what horses or tracks i play horses coming out of? ca. horses are going to be the two favorites in the derby, both trained by bob baffert, and here i am touting the wood winner who is an east coast horse. in fact i am leaning towards playing both frosted and international star ahead of both of bafferts two horses. but im biased, right?
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Post by mackdaddy on Apr 29, 2015 19:49:25 GMT -5
Yes you are lol JK
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Nostradamus
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Post by Nostradamus on Apr 29, 2015 20:35:42 GMT -5
Thanks wiz for your insight. Its nice to see how you go about handicapping. I don't recall you sharing this type of detailed handicapping methods before. It will be interesting to see how everything pans out.
Honestly I myself am confused about who will really win but I think it is obviously going to be one of the top contenders like Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, or Firing Line. As a longshot I am looking at Danzig Moon since he ran such a good race against Carpe Diem and looks like might be on a big improvement. Looking at the other top races (SA Derby, LA Derby, Ark Derby, etc) and 2nd place or 3rd place finishers for a longshot I don't think they were as impressive as Danzig Moon's 2nd to Carpe Diem.
Furthermore I understand times of races are important but in the end the actual class and ability of the horse is more important. I think Carpe Diem may really be a very class horse (only lost BC and cost 1.6 mil) and did not have to be pushed to win the Blue Grass in a very fast time so he wasn't. Remember he had the best rider in the country on him who maybe was smart enough to win by just enough to save him for the Derby. What is more important is that this best rider in the country (JR) could have been on any horse in the field (maybe) but he stuck with Carpe Diem which says a lot. That is why I think Carpe Diem may be the real deal and may be the one to win the derby. That being the case then I will also give Danzig Moon a shot being he ran a good race against the potential winner of the derby in his last race.
It is very difficult to me to judge the winner based on all these prep races run over different tracks, not running against each other yet, with tracks having different speeds and surfaces. One thing that stands out to me in regards to Carpe Diem above the others is his first MSW race at 5 1/2 at SAR where he wired the field in 44/4, 1:03/4 (94 speed rating) with super speed horse Ready for Rye 2nd. That says that Carpe Diem has blazing speed and maybe can beat anything in the derby at 6F. Any horse with blazing speed at 6F but can get 1 1/8 distance with no problem believe me is a force to be reckoned with in my experience, especially when they can be rated like he can.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 20:37:28 GMT -5
arkansas derby runners
ok, so here it is. the wonder horse. the next coming of jesus according to some, and a total fraud according to others. so which one is it? well, he aint no fraud people. i bet against him last year at del mar and i paid the price. i didnt believe when bob said he was his best horse after that first race. but he mad me a true believerin the front runner, which i thought was an even better effort then the DM derby. he would have been a standout in the BC but got hurt. so then you had a shared belief type scenario. as good as he was at 2, would he come back from the injury soon enough or the same horse as he was before the injury? well the answer is yes and then some. even though he has beaten NOTHING in his two races this year, he has done it so easily you have to wonder just how fast is he? how much more could he have won by? and the most impressive part hasnt been the wins, but instead the way he has finished both times. he came home in 30 and 2/5ths the last 2 1/2 furlongs in the slop two back and then 12.58 the last 1/8th last tme under a hammer lock. if you dont think he could have run that last 1/8th at least 3 or 4 lengths faster, then you are blind. distance limitations? probably the same people who thought bayern couldnt go a mile and a quarter, right? if that last race were a mile and a quarter, and he was asked the last 1/8th, he would have won by 15!!. the fact is on any given day at any distance, this guy could and should win unless there are extenuating circumstances. BUT, now for the bad part. this isnt any given day, and there more then likely WILL be extenuating circumstances in a 20 horse field where he will probably have to rate. should he be the favorite? of course. but that doesnt mean you have to take that short of a price. i wont be. the facts again are, that as easy as he won and even though he could have run faster, the race he comes out of wasnt that good of a race for the day timewise and competition wise both of his last two were under par. arkansas derby day was a very even, unbiased track with both speed and closer types winning in pretty much the anticipated time. if you disregard the rabbit who had no chance in the derby and just go off of pharohs own personal splits, he ran about the same as race day did earlier in the card, an older horse winning the grade 2 oaklawn handicap and beating tapiture and golden lad among others, for the interior fractions. pharoh was about .12 faster to the half, but then was a liitle over a length slower after 6 furlongs and 2 lengths slower after a mile. he ended up losing another length the last 1/8th to end up 3 lengths slower then the older horse in the end. now yes, if he had been all out he probably could have made up those 3 lengths. but he definately wasnt tons better then the older horses like say international star was over moreno or frosted was in his wood win compared to the fillies and sprinters o that day. pharoh may be a freak and has given every indication he is, but there are still a few unproven points and at 2-1 or so in a 20 horse field. i am willing to gamble against in the win pool. of course if you are playing exotics he is a must use also, but as i always tell people who dont box exactas when playing chalk on top of longdhots, "if you think a horse is good enough to run second, then he is good enough to win at the right odds." the reverse is true also. if you think you can beat a horse an 20 horse field in the win pool, then he is not unbeatable in the place pool either. meaning if you are gambling against him to win, why not try to beat him in the exacta as well? go for the gusto bitches!!! as far as anyone else exiting this race goes, i think they are all overmatched and throwouts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 20:43:26 GMT -5
not going to get into an argument with you on here, as i already asked you not to go into any detailed handicapping on my thread. but once again, how was the bluegrass a fast race?
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