Derby Futures 3
Feb 27, 2015 18:24:33 GMT -5
Post by cait on Feb 27, 2015 18:24:33 GMT -5
for those that don't have expressbet - johnny d's pretty good! anyone playing? - am prolly not - this is long so just search for whomever you like
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 3 Analysis
By Johnny D
XPBet
Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens tomorrow (Friday, Feb. 27) and closes Sunday, March 1. While I’m not a great fan of the wager--silly me, I think it’s tough enough to come up with the winner on the day of the race let alone two months beforehand--it still serves as an opportunity to analyze top 3-year-old contenders.
Below, I’ve included current comments for each Pool 3 entrant and previous analysis for Pool 2 entrants who now are part of the #24 All Other 3-Year-Olds option. I’ve also included all previous comments with dates and Pool 2 final odds so readers can watch opinions change either positively or negatively.
Hopefully, as we move toward the first Saturday in May, this in-depth review of major Derby contenders will help you to construct a winning Kentucky Derby play.
# Horse Name ML Trainer
1. American Pharoah 8-1 Baffert
2/26 The 2-year-old champ is progressing nicely for trainer Baffert and is expected to make his first start of 2015 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park March 14. As with all reigning champs, he must be knocked out before a challenger can legitimately claim the title. We doubt that upset will occur in the Rebel Stakes. Bob Baffert horses seldom lose at Oaklawn Park. Actually, if you really like this colt, 8-1 isn’t too bad a number. Here’s why: if he’s as good as Baffert says he is, he’ll probably run the table on his way to Louisville. If that’s the case he will be a much shorter price than 8-1 on Derby Day. In that case, you will have established value for your investment and that’s half the battle. The other half of the battle is for him to win the big one in Louisville. At this point we’re not prepared to announce if we like his chances to win the race or not, but he should be less than 8-1 odds if he makes it into the gate on Derby Day.
2/7 Spell check wants to make it ‘Pharaoh,’ but that’s not how this horse’s name officially ‘geos.’ Whatever. This guy’s a legit runner. Trainer Bob Baffert gushes over him like a teenage girl does Justin Bieber. ‘Pharoah’s got size, speed and quality. He just needs to stay sound and we could be looking at a superstar. Clearly, at this stage, he’s the one to beat. He did miss some training time because of some hoof issues, but he is back on the work tab and trainer Baffert says it won’t take much to have him ready to run.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 10-1
2. Bolo 50-1 Gaines
2/26 This one has trained and raced to rave reviews in California and has become a bit of a ‘wise-guy’ Derby futures selection. Trouble is his success so far has come on turf. Granted, his last race was a sensational performance displaying complete domination over Eddie Logan Stakes foes, but questions remain to be answered: How good is he, really? Can he handle dirt? Will he be able to press a hot dirt pace and still kick like in he does on turf? He easily defeated eventual El Camino Real runaway winner Metaboss on grass to break his maiden, so that’s saying something. Isn’t it? At 50-1 he seems like the kind of horse some might want to take a flyer on and we can’t argue with that. He’s definitely a good-looking, talented colt, but he’s still got some serious questions to answer.
3. Carpe Diem 12-1 Pletcher
2/26 He is working forwardly at Palm Beach Downs in Florida, with three five-eighths workouts as his latest moves. Expect him to continue with a longer workout this weekend as he moves toward his first start of 2015 in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s in a similar position as American Pharoah is in playing a bit of catch-up, but neither is in a critical phase quite yet. However, with both colts, at this point there is no room for error. At this point, 12-1 odds appear too short on this one possibly winning the Kentucky Derby.
2/7 Haven’t seen this one since November when he was a well beaten second as favorite to Texas Red in the BC Juvy. He’s got a few half-mile breezes under his belt, so he’s on the road back. Bottom line is this: He wasn’t nearly as good as Texas Red in the Juvy, and Texas Red wasn’t nearly as good as American Pharoah in the Front Runner, at the same distance over the same track as the Juvy, so that puts Carpe Diem well behind American Pharoah at this stage. Pletcher says one start for and then the Blue Grass.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 12.20
4. Danzig Moon 50-1 Casse
2/26 This one roared to a convincing one-mile maiden tally at Gulfstream Feb. 7. What warrants his inclusion on this list is a bit beyond us. Perhaps the fact that he’s a 3-year-old who hasn’t proven unworthy yet is reason enough. He finished second in a one-mile maiden race at Churchill in his last start at two and also was fourth in a six-furlong maiden race at Churchill. This colt has not been around two turns yet and time is running out. 50-1 is not nearly enough odds to back this one to win the Kentucky Derby. 200-1 probably isn’t enough.
5. Daredevil 30-1 Pletcher
2/26 As noted below, he won two out of three races as a 2-year-old and has not yet started at three. While his 2-year-old form is solid—he defeated Upstart in the Champagne—we’ve got to see him perform at three before we count him in or out of the mix. He is scheduled to run Saturday in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream going seven furlongs. Anyone taking 30-1 on this colt is wagering strictly off his 2-year-old form and purely gambling that he will improve significantly at three.
2/7 Here’s another Pletcher runner who’s been on the shelf since the BC Juvy. He won a maiden and the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont before disintegrating at a short price while wide in the BC Juvy. According to published works, he has breezed on identical days as Carpe Diem, so they appear to be on the exact same training schedule at Palm Beach Downs. Like Carpe Diem and Competitive Edge, this one has a solid 2-year-old foundation. According to Pletcher, that will allow him to give this one two preps before the Derby. Which preps? Not determined yet.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 40.40
6. Dortmund 8-1 Baffert
2/26 No real change in this one’s status as he continues to work forwardly for his next start in the Santa Anita Derby April 4. He’s big, strong and unbeaten. He has a tenacious, grinding style that so far has been effective enough to out-game foes. The question remains as to whether or not that style will work against better competition at longer distances. Baring any unforeseen developments, he will be favored in the Santa Anita Derby.
2/8 It looked like Firing Line had Dortmund whipped in the Bob Lewis. It was kind of how Seattle looked against Green Bay in the NFC title game. And then a funny thing happened on the way to the finish: Dortmund rallied gamely from at least a length and one-quarter behind on the inside, no less, to win the race. Wether Firing Line pulled himself up or not, Dortmund deserves huge props because he kept pedaling with giant strides. He’s a big ‘un, but he relaxed well early, moved when asked and re-rallied from the inside when it looked like he was beaten. All good things. He won’t be able to mess around like that in deeper waters, but he’s eligible to keep learning too.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 10.70
2/7 This guy laid his body down in the Los Alamitos stretch in December to defeat Firing Line and Mr. Z in that track’s Futurity Dec. 20. It was a game performance that stretched this one’s unbeaten mark to four in a row. Dortmund has been a bit headstrong in a few of his races, so it will be interesting to see if as Derby prep race distances increase trainer Bob Baffert attempts to get him to slow down, or if he just lets this one do his thing on the front end. He’s big, fast and talented. Catch his next performance in the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita Saturday (Feb. 7).
7. El Kabeir 30-1 McLaughlin
2/26 Nothing new to report on this one after his surprising defeat in the Withers. He is pointing toward the Gotham at Aqueduct March 7. The McLaughlin barn appeared to be well stocked this season for a serious run at the Kentucky Derby, but following recent losses by at least three runners things don’t seem quite as ‘rosie.’ This one may come back in the Gotham at Aqueduct March 7.
2/8 El Kabeir finished second as the heavy favorite in the Withers at Aqueduct. He may have reacted to a huge (Thoro-graph rated negative ¼) race a month ago in the Jerome.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 39.40
2/7 Along with #17 Mr. Z, #6 El Kabeir hails from the Zayat Stables. This outfit has been great at coming close to winning the most important races in the nation, but they’ve suffered some heartbreaking defeats. El Kabeir is battle tested with three wins in six starts, but he seems to be a cut below the top ones right now.
8. Far From Over 15-1 Pletcher
2/26 This ridgeling surprised with an amazing come-from-behind tally in the Withers. Left at the start, he made up tons of ground to not only reach contention but to blow past favored #7 El Kabeir. Far From Over won his only other start in December at a mile and seventy-yards at Aqueduct. It’s not clear how much talent he has or doesn’t have, so 15-1 odds are way too short and probably an overreaction to the visually impressive Withers win. This one should be at least 30-1 and probably more like 50-1.
2/8 Far From Over was not included in Pool 2 as a single wagering interest but was part of #24 All Other Horses. Below are those comments.
Here’s one reason the #24 All Other Three Year Olds category is so popular: Far From Over…a sentiment that aptly applies to the Derby trail and is the name of one of Saturday’s most surprising 3-year-old winner. Left at the start of The Withers at Aqueduct, Far From Over raced well behind the rest of the field. Gradually, he improved his position and while favored El Kabeir and Classy Class hammered each other into oblivion, Far From Over rallied in the stretch to win easily. Far From Over, from the Todd Pletcher outfit, now is unbeaten in two Aqueduct starts. All things considered, his Withers win was a bit too impressive to trust, but he’s a good one to have on your side in the #24 All Other Three Year Olds category.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 2.50
9. Far Right 20-1 Moquett
2/26 He validated a sharp Smarty Jones win by splashing to a solid Southwest Stakes score at Oaklawn. Well back early, he made a very wide run under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to reach contention and then dropped down toward the rail to deliver the knockout blow in the final sixteenth. He’s been consistent for trainer Ron Moquett and that reliability has produced three wins in eight starts and enough points already to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. This colt is not spectacular, but he is solid.
2/7 He is tied with #12 International Star for having the second most starts of all Derby Future Pool 2 runners with seven. #17 Mr. Z and #22 The Great War are deadlocked for the most with nine starts each. Number of starts is important for newly turned 3-year-olds because traditionally as that figure increases the chance for noticeable improvement decreases. Far Right took advantage of a sharp right hand turn by #17 Mr. Z in the Smarty Jones to win that race by nearly two lengths for his first added-money tally. He has hit the board in six of seven starts with a closing style.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 48.50
10. Firing Line 20-1 Callaghan
2/26 Firing Line blew the lead in the Robert Lewis to Dortmund. Not good. Seldom does a serious runner blow a commanding lead in the stretch at Santa Anita. His connections appear to be headed in a less stressful direction by sending him to compete in the Sunland Derby March 22. No matter what he might do in that race, the fact that he handed Dortmund the Bob Lewis calls his determination and overall distance capability into question. Pass on him winning the Kentucky Derby.
2/8 Firing Line broke a bit slowly in the Bob Lewis, was a bit rank in the early going, settled down to rate in third, moved up three-wide to engage Dortmund on the turn, edged clear of that one and was on the way to victory. That’s where things turned sour. Dortmund re-rallied on the inside and in the shadow of the wire out-gamed Firing Line. Perhaps Firing Line assumed his work was done and pulled himself up a bit. He probably will get a set of blinkers for his next start. Maybe Dortmund beat him on the square? Either way the Bob Lewis was a plus for Dortmund and a minus for Firing Line.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 35.10
2/7 Away since finishing a head behind #5 Dortmund and a nose in front of #17 Mr. Z in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Firing Line has shown steady improvement in all three starts. The colt appears to be training well for a scheduled rematch with #5 Dortmund in the Bob Lewis Saturday, Feb. 7 at Santa Anita. That race will help horseplayers determine if Firing Line is worth following on the Derby trail.
11. International Star 20-1 Maker
2/26 A couple of strong performances in the LeComte and Risen Star have given International Star some real credibility. He has improved steadily for trainer Mike Maker since his first start on grass last June. He has a late-running style that wears opponents into submission. In the Risen Star he saved all the ground, squeezed through a tight hole on the rail, was bumped and jostled there and still managed to have enough left to hold a lead past the finish. He did change leads back and forth late. That could be sign that he’s still learning or that there’s something bothering him, although he looked fine finishing. Like #9 Far Right--winner of the Smarty Jones and Southwest in Arkansas--he’s not brilliant but he is dependable and determined. Can’t love him, but can’t dismiss him either.
2/7 As unlucky as Zayat Stables has been in big races is about how fortunate Ken & Sarah Ramsey have been the last few years. International Star has won three of seven starts, including a maiden score sprinting on turf at Belmont; a mile and one-sixteenth Canadian Grade 3 stakes over an artificial surface at Woodbine; and a mile and seventy-yard Grade 3 stakes on the dirt at the Fair Grounds! He doesn’t have nearly as much raw talent as some of his contemporaries, but what versatility!
Pool 2 Final Odds: 44.50
12. Itsaknockout 20-1 Pletcher
2/26 Itsaknockout stretched his unbeaten record to three in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth. Whether or not he required the help of the stewards to accomplish the feat is debatable. Some feel he was well on his way past Upstart when he was interfered with in the stretch. Others argue he wouldn’t have gone by that one if they had gone around the oval again. I’m in the former camp and view Itsaknockout’s Fountain of Youth as an acceptable performance. Is he the one to jump behind to win the Kentucky Derby? Not yet. He’s got more to prove and the Florida Derby probably will be the place for that to happen. The finish of the Fountain of Youth over an unusually deep racing surface has experts wondering where to rank the first three finishers. We agree. We’ve got to see more before we’re ready to vote ‘yeah’ or ‘nay.’ For that reason we would not recommend a future wager on Itsaknockout at this time.
2/7 Unbeaten in two starts this Pletcher runner by Lemon Drop Kid hasn’t done a thing wrong yet. He was all out to gain a nose decision first out in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream, and then absolutely dominated a first-level allowance field going a mile about a month later at the same track. Got to see more of this one.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 30.90
13. Keen Ice 50-1 Romans
2/27 This one really wasn’t on anyone’s Kentucky Derby radar screen before Saturday’s Risen Star. Now he’s a minor blip. The best Keen Ice had done in stakes races before the Risen Star was to finish a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes. He’s the kind of runner we look at as a possible longshot to hit the Kentucky Derby superfecta. Keen Ice’s Risen Star run was solid. He saved ground early, well back in the pack. He gradually moved up down the backside under a hold until he was forced to run in place for a while. That pause dropped him back to last with three-eighths of a mile to go. Finally, he was able to get through on the inside and finish with interest. One positive note is that he has a one-mile maiden victory over the Churchill surface. He’s shown steady improvement for trainer Romans and that’s a good thing. Let’s keep an eye on this one as the distances increase. Wouldn’t be the worst place to bet a deuce at 50-1.
14. Khozan 15-1 Pletcher
2/26 Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Todd Pletcher has an undefeated runner who blitzes every challenger in the first four starts of his career to enter the Kentucky Derby as the favorite…Stop! We’ve seen this movie before and it never has a happy ending. Even worse this time is the fact that Khozan, who absolutely demolished an allowance field at Gulfstream in his last start to bring his record to 2-for-2, has to buck the Apollo curse (see below). Oh, he’s a real runner, that’s for sure; his talent’s not open for debate. The issue is that he’s come way too far in too short a time. That’s not the usual way for a 3-year-old to approach the Kentucky Derby. 15-1 odds on this one is far too short a price for a colt who’s got much to learn and overcome between now and Derby Day.
2/7 He is the last of six…count ‘em…six Todd Pletcher runners listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2. His only start was an impressive nearly four-length maiden victory going seven furlongs at Gulfstream January 24. As exhilarating as that performance was—it earned a smashing 103 Beyer—Khozan will need to defeat history as well as 19 expected foes to win the Kentucky Derby. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without first starting as a 2-year-old. We know, streaks are made to be broken…but this streak has been as strong as steel.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 25.20
15. Lord Nelson 30-1 Baffert
2/26 Baffert’s been boosting this one in interviews lately. He’s letting people know that the least popular of his three Derby chances (‘Pharoah & Dortmund are the others) shouldn’t be ignored. Many experts still have Texas Red near the tops of their lists despite that colt’s recent setback. Anyone who still considers Texas Red a serious Kentucky Derby threat ought to respect Lord Nelson—who outran ‘Red on the square in the Santa Anita stretch—a great deal. He’s on the upswing for Baffert with the kind of two-to-three development we like to see. Watch out.
2/6 This is the third and last of trainer Bob Baffert’s Pool 2 runners—half as many representatives as Todd Pletcher has. ‘Nelson gamely gunned down BC Juvy winner #21 Texas Red in the stretch of the seven-furlong San Vicente Super Bowl Sunday at Santa Anita. The Pulpit colt has some quality, but seems a bit below brilliant. He’s a hard-working type who needs to do better around two turns. He was fourth to #1 American Pharoah in the Front Runner back in September and then a troubled fifth to #6 El Kabeir and others on this list in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 41.50
16. Mr. Z 50-1 Lukas
2/26 Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas didn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat with Mr. Z in the Southwest, but the race wasn’t a total loss. While Mr. Z did little to enhance his Kentucky Derby chances, at least he ran in a straight line to finish third and that was an improvement over his Smarty Jones antics when he blew a certain winning edge in the final sixteenth of a mile. If anyone but D. Wayne Lukas were training Mr. Z there’s no way a player could even think about taking 50-1 on this horse winning the Kentucky Derby. However, we’ve seen trainer Wayne work magic in the past, so we’re never saying ‘never’ when he’s involved. Mr. Z is expected to contest the Louisiana Derby next March 28.
2/7 Mr. Z has climbed into the ring with some of the best runners on this list and often been standing for the final bell. He’s got just one win in nine attempts, but he’s been second four times against the best available competition. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has brought this one over to race at least once each month since Mr. Z broke his maiden first time out in June. That aggressive schedule may finally be taking its toll on Mr. Z, because he lugged out in the final stages of the Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec. 20) and then, with victory within his grasp in his next race the Smarty Jones (Jan. 19), he made a sharp right turn nearing the finish. We’ve seen enough racing to know that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas can work wonders. Wonder if he can pull one more rabbit out of his hat with Mr. Z?
Pool 2 Final Odds: 44.10
17. Ocean Knight 15-1 McLaughlin
2/26 No real change in opinion on this one except to note that the McLaughlin ship took on a bit of water this past week with poor 3-year-old performances from Imperia and Frosted. A slumping barn never is a good sign for the rest of the horses stabling there. Still, there is much to like about the way this one handled two turns in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. Look for him to return in either the Tampa Bay Derby or Gotham Stakes March 7. With so much left to prove he seems undervalued at 15-1.
2/7 Nothing wrong with the way this one has handled his first two victorious outings—a four and one-quarter length maiden sprint win at Aqueduct and the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at a mile and one-sixteenth at Tampa Bay Downs. ‘Knight dominated the first, winning by four and one-quarter lengths and then overcame a wide trip to get up by a measured neck in the second. One red flag with this runner might be that his maiden triumph was almost too fast! The Thoro-Graph number was a ‘1’ and that’s a huge figure for a 2-year-old…almost too large for anyone’s good.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 18.50
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1 Cassidy
2/26 No real change for this one except that he continues to train lights out for his return to the races in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. That race won’t happen until Pool 3 wagering is closed so anyone with an ‘eight-track’ mind will need to play this one totally on the ‘come.’
2/7 Anyone wonder if this one makes the Kentucky Derby lineup he’s liable to finish eighth? No joking about ‘Ocho’s first three starts. He’s unbeaten and has earned a walloping $693k. He’s won from five and one-half furlongs to a mile and one-sixteenth. What’s not to like? Well, he hasn’t been out since late November and has just one recorded half-mile in January. That puts him a bit behind his contemporaries at this point.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 26.80
29. Prospect Park 30-1 Sise
2/26 Now that the immediate hubbub of his impressive first-level allowance win has subsided, do we all really still consider Prospect Park a possible Kentucky Derby winner? After all, he took four starts to win his maiden and that’s never a good sign. He is slated to race in the San Felipe at Santa Anita March 7, so we’ll know more then. He’s going to have to sparkle in that race to get our juices flowing. While we were impressed with his allowance win, we must remind ourselves that it was just that…an allowance win. This time of year serious Triple Crown threats ought to be winning or losing stakes races, not allowance events. I wouldn’t take 30-1 on him because of his sketchy 2-year-old form. Those stops and starts suggest physical issues that seem to be currently under control but might flare up when the real racing begins.
2/7 His last race was a tour-de-force. In a first-level allowance race at Santa Anita, he was blocked on the rail approaching the stretch under jockey Kent Desormeaux. At that point in the race, Desormeaux looked more like a water skier than a jockey as he tried to keep his mount contained. When clear Prospect Park exploded away from the field with his ears pricked to win by over five lengths. On the negative side, Prospect Park had four starts before he broke his maiden and that’s not usually the resume of a star. However, as strong as he looked winning that first-level allowance race, it’s difficult to ignore him.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 35.10
20. Texas Red 12-1 Desormeaux
2/26 Sadly, Texas Red has suffered a minor injury and will miss some time on the Triple Crown trail. Trainer Keith Desormeaux hopes to have ‘Red back in time to make the big race. Unfortunately, the challenge of getting a horse to the Derby in one piece is so demanding that any bump in the road along the way, no matter how insignificant, is serious. There’s no way I could back this one to win the Kentucky Derby at any price.
2/7 Breeders’ Cup Juvy hero Texas Red didn’t win his initial start of 2015. He lost by a mere neck to #16 Lord Nelson in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. However, the Desormeaux brothers—trainer Keith and jockey Kent—were happy with ‘Red’s race. They explained that the colt was not fully cranked for the San Vicente and that the effort will move him forward in his next start. It’s a negative from this chair that Texas Red was nailed in the final strides. Stars usually don’t get nailed in the final strides. They win, especially once they’ve made the lead. This one’s BC Juvy victory may cause him to be overhyped in 2015.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 9.10
21. The Great War 30-1 Ward
2/26 He is entered in the Battaglia Stakes at Turfway Saturday, Feb. 28. He will face 10 other foes while breaking from post 11. According to Equibase, he has no official recorded workouts since winning the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway Park January 31. He looked fantastic in winning that race and trainer Wesley Ward certainly has proven that he knows how to get one ready for a big race. Those willing to wager on this one in Pool 3 will be able to see the Battaglia results before closing time.
2/7 Different looking past performances for this one; not only because he began his career in Ireland, but also because he raced seven times as a 2-year-old before arriving in the US for the BC Juvy. Most Euro invaders are lightly raced, but this one didn’t miss a beat from April through November for top European conditioner Aidan O’Brien. The only month he didn’t race was in October—although he did make two starts in September. Now in the hands of the very capable Wesley Ward, The Great War demolished 10 foes over a synthetic surface to win a small sprint stakes at Turfway Park. Keep in mind that this one was fourth in the BC Juvy, beaten less than two lengths for second by #2 Carpe Diem and #23 Upstart in his first two-turn race on dirt! If you can get over 30-1 on this guy in Pool 2 he might be worth a stab for amusement only.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 40.90
22. Upstart 15-1 Violette
2/26 This colt won the Fountain of Youth Stakes…well…at least he got to the finish first. Upstart was disqualified from the victory for interfering with Itsaknockout through the stretch. Over what many have called a ‘very deep and tiring’ Gulfstream surface, it appeared that Upstart labored a bit near the end and certainly was not as energetic as he had been in his Holy Bull romp. Some experts are giving him a pass for the Fountain of Youth. We are not. We think he ran too fast in the Holy Bull and that is why he regressed noticeably in the Fountain of Youth. Trainer Rick Violette apparently will skip the Florida Derby with this one and perhaps aim for the Wood. The colt’s prospects of winning the Kentucky Derby aren’t anywhere near 15-1 in our mind. It would take much higher odds for us to be interested in backing him at all.
2/7 A winner of three of five starts, Upstart is a hot horse right now. He romped in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream last time out and will be a very short price when he runs back in the Fountain of Youth. Upstart never has been worse than third and he has two Beyer figures over 100—a 102 when he was second in the Champagne to #4 Daredevil and a 106 from the Holy Bull. So, what’s not to like about Upstart? Nothing really, except that by running as fast as he has already he may have peaked too early. The Kentucky Derby isn’t until the first Saturday in May. To have a horse go about as fast as a 3-year-old can run in January is not a good thing.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 12.80
23. War Story 30-1 Amoss
2/26 War Story has started just four times so far, so there’s plenty of room for improvement. He won his first out over the Churchill Downs strip--and that’s a plus. He then moved from the Ron Moquett barn into the shedrow of Tom Amoss to win an allowance race and to finished second in the LeComte and Risen Star to #11 International Star—all at Fair Grounds. There is much to like about this one and if you have a high opinion of #11 International Star, then your outlook on this one can’t be much less. Plus, since he’s run half as often as that foe, War Story has much more upside. In the Risen Star, International Star got through on the rail and War Story moved at least four paths wide into the stretch. That lost ground could account for his losing margin. That said, War Story still will need to show a bit more of a finishing kick to get a mile and one-quarter effectively on Derby Day.
24. All Other Three Year Olds 3-1
2/26: This entry is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in Pool 3 of the 141st Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Certainly no sophomore has dominated the early 3-year-old picture and we haven’t yet seen American Pharoah or Carpe Diem--two of the most highly regarded 3-year-olds--in 2015, so it makes sense that players would back this smorgasbord of runners. However, it’s getting a bit late for an obscure runner to leap into the Kentucky Derby picture.
2/7: If you believe that there’s safety in numbers then this is the play for you. Of course, there’s also the old saw that claims misery loves company. At a short price, we’d rather buy another round at the bar than to tie up our shekels until May without much of a possible return on investment.
2/8: Here’s one reason the All Other Three Year Olds category is so popular: Far From Over…a sentiment that aptly applies to the Derby trail and the name of one of Saturday’s most surprising 3-year-old winner. Left at the start of The Withers at Aqueduct, Far From Over raced well behind the rest of the field. Gradually, he improved his position and while favored El Kabeir and Classy Class were hammering each other into oblivion, Far From Over rallied in the stretch to win easily. Far From Over, from the Todd Pletcher outfit, now is unbeaten in two Aqueduct starts. All things considered, his Withers win was a bit too impressive, but he’s a good one to have on your side in the All Other Three Year Olds category.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 2.50
Bonus Coverage of 3-year-olds Included in Pool 2 but Not in Pool 3:
Competitive Edge
2/26 From what I’m reading and hearing about this one it seems like he may be headed for something other than the Kentucky Derby…like maybe the Preakness (although Pletcher’s never been a big Preakness guy).
2/6 Like Carpe Diem, this is a Todd Pletcher runner. Normally, that’s a positive, but when you’re talking Kentucky Derby, Pletcher hasn’t had nearly the same domination as he does in most other Grade 1 races. ‘Edge is unbeaten in two starts at Saratoga and finally is back in training in Florida at Palm Beach Downs. He’s about as far along as Carpe Diem, so they both will need to hustle a bit to be ready soon. According to Pletcher, he’s about 3 – 4 weeks away. He will have two Derby preps.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 37.30
Frosted
2/26 He made the lead in the Fountain of Youth like he was going to run away from the field. Unfortunately, for some strange reason, he stopped running. Did the deep track knock him for a loop? Did he pull himself up when he made the lead? Did he injure himself? Trainer McLaughlin didn’t have any obvious excuse for this one after the race, so there still are legitimate questions.
2/7 This one really hasn’t taken a backward step since finishing a well-whipped second behind Bayerd first out in August at the Spa. #23 Upstart smoked Frosted in the Holy Bull, but that was at a mile and one-sixteenth. This son of Tapit might have more to give as the distances increase and he’s allowed to settle and make a long, sustained run. His next start will be just his third with Lasix, so there ought to be room for improvement.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 31.20
Gorgeous Bird
2/26 Considered a bit of a hot horse off a seven-furlong allowance score, Gorgeous Bird could do no better than fifth in the Fountain of Youth. There was nothing about that race to suggest that this one is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.
2/7 He won a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream like a monster. That was only his third start in a well-spaced out campaign with races in August, November and January. He’s improved with each start moving from six and one-half furlongs to seven-eighths to a mile and one-sixteenth. Beyer speed figures have progressed from 57 to 75 to 84. That’s all good stuff for owner Marylou Whitney and trainer Ian Wilkes, who is advised by Derby-winning Hall-of-Fame conditioner Carl Nafzger.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 32.50
Imperia
2/26 This colt’s first race off a layoff since the Kentucky Jockey Club in November came in the Risen Star and it wasn’t a promising performance. Imperia began his career with a trio of turf races and then switched to Churchill dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club for a top performance. Unfortunately, Imperia doesn’t seem to be ready to give his best yet in 2015.
2/7 He began his career on the turf for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin—who also trains #9 Frosted & #18 Ocean Knight—winning one of three grass starts (Gr. 3 Pilgrim Stakes). His only dirt outing resulted in a closing second to #6 El Kabier in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. It’s too early to come down hard on either side of this one. He’s got a closing style that might be an advantage as the distances increase. Stay tuned.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 24.10
J S Bach
2/26 Whatever chance he had to do some damage on the Triple Crown trail this season has been severely diminished. He was supposed to run in the Southwest Stakes, but that race was postponed eight days because of poor weather. In that time he developed a fever and was forced to miss that start. When anything goes wrong with a 3-year-old at this time of the year, it’s an issue and JS Bach will have an uphill struggle to get back on track for the Kentucky Derby.
2/7 This one was very impressive when breaking his maiden at Gulfstream by over eight lengths going a mile and one-sixteenth in just his second career start for trainer Todd Pletcher. The dominating performance, however, was not as highly rated according to Beyer speed figures which ranked ‘Bach’s nearly two-length defeat first out at five and one-half furlongs at 92 and the maiden romp at just 87.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 69.20
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 3 Analysis
By Johnny D
XPBet
Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens tomorrow (Friday, Feb. 27) and closes Sunday, March 1. While I’m not a great fan of the wager--silly me, I think it’s tough enough to come up with the winner on the day of the race let alone two months beforehand--it still serves as an opportunity to analyze top 3-year-old contenders.
Below, I’ve included current comments for each Pool 3 entrant and previous analysis for Pool 2 entrants who now are part of the #24 All Other 3-Year-Olds option. I’ve also included all previous comments with dates and Pool 2 final odds so readers can watch opinions change either positively or negatively.
Hopefully, as we move toward the first Saturday in May, this in-depth review of major Derby contenders will help you to construct a winning Kentucky Derby play.
# Horse Name ML Trainer
1. American Pharoah 8-1 Baffert
2/26 The 2-year-old champ is progressing nicely for trainer Baffert and is expected to make his first start of 2015 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park March 14. As with all reigning champs, he must be knocked out before a challenger can legitimately claim the title. We doubt that upset will occur in the Rebel Stakes. Bob Baffert horses seldom lose at Oaklawn Park. Actually, if you really like this colt, 8-1 isn’t too bad a number. Here’s why: if he’s as good as Baffert says he is, he’ll probably run the table on his way to Louisville. If that’s the case he will be a much shorter price than 8-1 on Derby Day. In that case, you will have established value for your investment and that’s half the battle. The other half of the battle is for him to win the big one in Louisville. At this point we’re not prepared to announce if we like his chances to win the race or not, but he should be less than 8-1 odds if he makes it into the gate on Derby Day.
2/7 Spell check wants to make it ‘Pharaoh,’ but that’s not how this horse’s name officially ‘geos.’ Whatever. This guy’s a legit runner. Trainer Bob Baffert gushes over him like a teenage girl does Justin Bieber. ‘Pharoah’s got size, speed and quality. He just needs to stay sound and we could be looking at a superstar. Clearly, at this stage, he’s the one to beat. He did miss some training time because of some hoof issues, but he is back on the work tab and trainer Baffert says it won’t take much to have him ready to run.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 10-1
2. Bolo 50-1 Gaines
2/26 This one has trained and raced to rave reviews in California and has become a bit of a ‘wise-guy’ Derby futures selection. Trouble is his success so far has come on turf. Granted, his last race was a sensational performance displaying complete domination over Eddie Logan Stakes foes, but questions remain to be answered: How good is he, really? Can he handle dirt? Will he be able to press a hot dirt pace and still kick like in he does on turf? He easily defeated eventual El Camino Real runaway winner Metaboss on grass to break his maiden, so that’s saying something. Isn’t it? At 50-1 he seems like the kind of horse some might want to take a flyer on and we can’t argue with that. He’s definitely a good-looking, talented colt, but he’s still got some serious questions to answer.
3. Carpe Diem 12-1 Pletcher
2/26 He is working forwardly at Palm Beach Downs in Florida, with three five-eighths workouts as his latest moves. Expect him to continue with a longer workout this weekend as he moves toward his first start of 2015 in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s in a similar position as American Pharoah is in playing a bit of catch-up, but neither is in a critical phase quite yet. However, with both colts, at this point there is no room for error. At this point, 12-1 odds appear too short on this one possibly winning the Kentucky Derby.
2/7 Haven’t seen this one since November when he was a well beaten second as favorite to Texas Red in the BC Juvy. He’s got a few half-mile breezes under his belt, so he’s on the road back. Bottom line is this: He wasn’t nearly as good as Texas Red in the Juvy, and Texas Red wasn’t nearly as good as American Pharoah in the Front Runner, at the same distance over the same track as the Juvy, so that puts Carpe Diem well behind American Pharoah at this stage. Pletcher says one start for and then the Blue Grass.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 12.20
4. Danzig Moon 50-1 Casse
2/26 This one roared to a convincing one-mile maiden tally at Gulfstream Feb. 7. What warrants his inclusion on this list is a bit beyond us. Perhaps the fact that he’s a 3-year-old who hasn’t proven unworthy yet is reason enough. He finished second in a one-mile maiden race at Churchill in his last start at two and also was fourth in a six-furlong maiden race at Churchill. This colt has not been around two turns yet and time is running out. 50-1 is not nearly enough odds to back this one to win the Kentucky Derby. 200-1 probably isn’t enough.
5. Daredevil 30-1 Pletcher
2/26 As noted below, he won two out of three races as a 2-year-old and has not yet started at three. While his 2-year-old form is solid—he defeated Upstart in the Champagne—we’ve got to see him perform at three before we count him in or out of the mix. He is scheduled to run Saturday in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream going seven furlongs. Anyone taking 30-1 on this colt is wagering strictly off his 2-year-old form and purely gambling that he will improve significantly at three.
2/7 Here’s another Pletcher runner who’s been on the shelf since the BC Juvy. He won a maiden and the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont before disintegrating at a short price while wide in the BC Juvy. According to published works, he has breezed on identical days as Carpe Diem, so they appear to be on the exact same training schedule at Palm Beach Downs. Like Carpe Diem and Competitive Edge, this one has a solid 2-year-old foundation. According to Pletcher, that will allow him to give this one two preps before the Derby. Which preps? Not determined yet.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 40.40
6. Dortmund 8-1 Baffert
2/26 No real change in this one’s status as he continues to work forwardly for his next start in the Santa Anita Derby April 4. He’s big, strong and unbeaten. He has a tenacious, grinding style that so far has been effective enough to out-game foes. The question remains as to whether or not that style will work against better competition at longer distances. Baring any unforeseen developments, he will be favored in the Santa Anita Derby.
2/8 It looked like Firing Line had Dortmund whipped in the Bob Lewis. It was kind of how Seattle looked against Green Bay in the NFC title game. And then a funny thing happened on the way to the finish: Dortmund rallied gamely from at least a length and one-quarter behind on the inside, no less, to win the race. Wether Firing Line pulled himself up or not, Dortmund deserves huge props because he kept pedaling with giant strides. He’s a big ‘un, but he relaxed well early, moved when asked and re-rallied from the inside when it looked like he was beaten. All good things. He won’t be able to mess around like that in deeper waters, but he’s eligible to keep learning too.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 10.70
2/7 This guy laid his body down in the Los Alamitos stretch in December to defeat Firing Line and Mr. Z in that track’s Futurity Dec. 20. It was a game performance that stretched this one’s unbeaten mark to four in a row. Dortmund has been a bit headstrong in a few of his races, so it will be interesting to see if as Derby prep race distances increase trainer Bob Baffert attempts to get him to slow down, or if he just lets this one do his thing on the front end. He’s big, fast and talented. Catch his next performance in the Bob Lewis at Santa Anita Saturday (Feb. 7).
7. El Kabeir 30-1 McLaughlin
2/26 Nothing new to report on this one after his surprising defeat in the Withers. He is pointing toward the Gotham at Aqueduct March 7. The McLaughlin barn appeared to be well stocked this season for a serious run at the Kentucky Derby, but following recent losses by at least three runners things don’t seem quite as ‘rosie.’ This one may come back in the Gotham at Aqueduct March 7.
2/8 El Kabeir finished second as the heavy favorite in the Withers at Aqueduct. He may have reacted to a huge (Thoro-graph rated negative ¼) race a month ago in the Jerome.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 39.40
2/7 Along with #17 Mr. Z, #6 El Kabeir hails from the Zayat Stables. This outfit has been great at coming close to winning the most important races in the nation, but they’ve suffered some heartbreaking defeats. El Kabeir is battle tested with three wins in six starts, but he seems to be a cut below the top ones right now.
8. Far From Over 15-1 Pletcher
2/26 This ridgeling surprised with an amazing come-from-behind tally in the Withers. Left at the start, he made up tons of ground to not only reach contention but to blow past favored #7 El Kabeir. Far From Over won his only other start in December at a mile and seventy-yards at Aqueduct. It’s not clear how much talent he has or doesn’t have, so 15-1 odds are way too short and probably an overreaction to the visually impressive Withers win. This one should be at least 30-1 and probably more like 50-1.
2/8 Far From Over was not included in Pool 2 as a single wagering interest but was part of #24 All Other Horses. Below are those comments.
Here’s one reason the #24 All Other Three Year Olds category is so popular: Far From Over…a sentiment that aptly applies to the Derby trail and is the name of one of Saturday’s most surprising 3-year-old winner. Left at the start of The Withers at Aqueduct, Far From Over raced well behind the rest of the field. Gradually, he improved his position and while favored El Kabeir and Classy Class hammered each other into oblivion, Far From Over rallied in the stretch to win easily. Far From Over, from the Todd Pletcher outfit, now is unbeaten in two Aqueduct starts. All things considered, his Withers win was a bit too impressive to trust, but he’s a good one to have on your side in the #24 All Other Three Year Olds category.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 2.50
9. Far Right 20-1 Moquett
2/26 He validated a sharp Smarty Jones win by splashing to a solid Southwest Stakes score at Oaklawn. Well back early, he made a very wide run under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to reach contention and then dropped down toward the rail to deliver the knockout blow in the final sixteenth. He’s been consistent for trainer Ron Moquett and that reliability has produced three wins in eight starts and enough points already to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. This colt is not spectacular, but he is solid.
2/7 He is tied with #12 International Star for having the second most starts of all Derby Future Pool 2 runners with seven. #17 Mr. Z and #22 The Great War are deadlocked for the most with nine starts each. Number of starts is important for newly turned 3-year-olds because traditionally as that figure increases the chance for noticeable improvement decreases. Far Right took advantage of a sharp right hand turn by #17 Mr. Z in the Smarty Jones to win that race by nearly two lengths for his first added-money tally. He has hit the board in six of seven starts with a closing style.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 48.50
10. Firing Line 20-1 Callaghan
2/26 Firing Line blew the lead in the Robert Lewis to Dortmund. Not good. Seldom does a serious runner blow a commanding lead in the stretch at Santa Anita. His connections appear to be headed in a less stressful direction by sending him to compete in the Sunland Derby March 22. No matter what he might do in that race, the fact that he handed Dortmund the Bob Lewis calls his determination and overall distance capability into question. Pass on him winning the Kentucky Derby.
2/8 Firing Line broke a bit slowly in the Bob Lewis, was a bit rank in the early going, settled down to rate in third, moved up three-wide to engage Dortmund on the turn, edged clear of that one and was on the way to victory. That’s where things turned sour. Dortmund re-rallied on the inside and in the shadow of the wire out-gamed Firing Line. Perhaps Firing Line assumed his work was done and pulled himself up a bit. He probably will get a set of blinkers for his next start. Maybe Dortmund beat him on the square? Either way the Bob Lewis was a plus for Dortmund and a minus for Firing Line.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 35.10
2/7 Away since finishing a head behind #5 Dortmund and a nose in front of #17 Mr. Z in the Los Alamitos Futurity, Firing Line has shown steady improvement in all three starts. The colt appears to be training well for a scheduled rematch with #5 Dortmund in the Bob Lewis Saturday, Feb. 7 at Santa Anita. That race will help horseplayers determine if Firing Line is worth following on the Derby trail.
11. International Star 20-1 Maker
2/26 A couple of strong performances in the LeComte and Risen Star have given International Star some real credibility. He has improved steadily for trainer Mike Maker since his first start on grass last June. He has a late-running style that wears opponents into submission. In the Risen Star he saved all the ground, squeezed through a tight hole on the rail, was bumped and jostled there and still managed to have enough left to hold a lead past the finish. He did change leads back and forth late. That could be sign that he’s still learning or that there’s something bothering him, although he looked fine finishing. Like #9 Far Right--winner of the Smarty Jones and Southwest in Arkansas--he’s not brilliant but he is dependable and determined. Can’t love him, but can’t dismiss him either.
2/7 As unlucky as Zayat Stables has been in big races is about how fortunate Ken & Sarah Ramsey have been the last few years. International Star has won three of seven starts, including a maiden score sprinting on turf at Belmont; a mile and one-sixteenth Canadian Grade 3 stakes over an artificial surface at Woodbine; and a mile and seventy-yard Grade 3 stakes on the dirt at the Fair Grounds! He doesn’t have nearly as much raw talent as some of his contemporaries, but what versatility!
Pool 2 Final Odds: 44.50
12. Itsaknockout 20-1 Pletcher
2/26 Itsaknockout stretched his unbeaten record to three in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth. Whether or not he required the help of the stewards to accomplish the feat is debatable. Some feel he was well on his way past Upstart when he was interfered with in the stretch. Others argue he wouldn’t have gone by that one if they had gone around the oval again. I’m in the former camp and view Itsaknockout’s Fountain of Youth as an acceptable performance. Is he the one to jump behind to win the Kentucky Derby? Not yet. He’s got more to prove and the Florida Derby probably will be the place for that to happen. The finish of the Fountain of Youth over an unusually deep racing surface has experts wondering where to rank the first three finishers. We agree. We’ve got to see more before we’re ready to vote ‘yeah’ or ‘nay.’ For that reason we would not recommend a future wager on Itsaknockout at this time.
2/7 Unbeaten in two starts this Pletcher runner by Lemon Drop Kid hasn’t done a thing wrong yet. He was all out to gain a nose decision first out in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream, and then absolutely dominated a first-level allowance field going a mile about a month later at the same track. Got to see more of this one.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 30.90
13. Keen Ice 50-1 Romans
2/27 This one really wasn’t on anyone’s Kentucky Derby radar screen before Saturday’s Risen Star. Now he’s a minor blip. The best Keen Ice had done in stakes races before the Risen Star was to finish a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes. He’s the kind of runner we look at as a possible longshot to hit the Kentucky Derby superfecta. Keen Ice’s Risen Star run was solid. He saved ground early, well back in the pack. He gradually moved up down the backside under a hold until he was forced to run in place for a while. That pause dropped him back to last with three-eighths of a mile to go. Finally, he was able to get through on the inside and finish with interest. One positive note is that he has a one-mile maiden victory over the Churchill surface. He’s shown steady improvement for trainer Romans and that’s a good thing. Let’s keep an eye on this one as the distances increase. Wouldn’t be the worst place to bet a deuce at 50-1.
14. Khozan 15-1 Pletcher
2/26 Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Todd Pletcher has an undefeated runner who blitzes every challenger in the first four starts of his career to enter the Kentucky Derby as the favorite…Stop! We’ve seen this movie before and it never has a happy ending. Even worse this time is the fact that Khozan, who absolutely demolished an allowance field at Gulfstream in his last start to bring his record to 2-for-2, has to buck the Apollo curse (see below). Oh, he’s a real runner, that’s for sure; his talent’s not open for debate. The issue is that he’s come way too far in too short a time. That’s not the usual way for a 3-year-old to approach the Kentucky Derby. 15-1 odds on this one is far too short a price for a colt who’s got much to learn and overcome between now and Derby Day.
2/7 He is the last of six…count ‘em…six Todd Pletcher runners listed in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2. His only start was an impressive nearly four-length maiden victory going seven furlongs at Gulfstream January 24. As exhilarating as that performance was—it earned a smashing 103 Beyer—Khozan will need to defeat history as well as 19 expected foes to win the Kentucky Derby. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without first starting as a 2-year-old. We know, streaks are made to be broken…but this streak has been as strong as steel.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 25.20
15. Lord Nelson 30-1 Baffert
2/26 Baffert’s been boosting this one in interviews lately. He’s letting people know that the least popular of his three Derby chances (‘Pharoah & Dortmund are the others) shouldn’t be ignored. Many experts still have Texas Red near the tops of their lists despite that colt’s recent setback. Anyone who still considers Texas Red a serious Kentucky Derby threat ought to respect Lord Nelson—who outran ‘Red on the square in the Santa Anita stretch—a great deal. He’s on the upswing for Baffert with the kind of two-to-three development we like to see. Watch out.
2/6 This is the third and last of trainer Bob Baffert’s Pool 2 runners—half as many representatives as Todd Pletcher has. ‘Nelson gamely gunned down BC Juvy winner #21 Texas Red in the stretch of the seven-furlong San Vicente Super Bowl Sunday at Santa Anita. The Pulpit colt has some quality, but seems a bit below brilliant. He’s a hard-working type who needs to do better around two turns. He was fourth to #1 American Pharoah in the Front Runner back in September and then a troubled fifth to #6 El Kabeir and others on this list in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 41.50
16. Mr. Z 50-1 Lukas
2/26 Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas didn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat with Mr. Z in the Southwest, but the race wasn’t a total loss. While Mr. Z did little to enhance his Kentucky Derby chances, at least he ran in a straight line to finish third and that was an improvement over his Smarty Jones antics when he blew a certain winning edge in the final sixteenth of a mile. If anyone but D. Wayne Lukas were training Mr. Z there’s no way a player could even think about taking 50-1 on this horse winning the Kentucky Derby. However, we’ve seen trainer Wayne work magic in the past, so we’re never saying ‘never’ when he’s involved. Mr. Z is expected to contest the Louisiana Derby next March 28.
2/7 Mr. Z has climbed into the ring with some of the best runners on this list and often been standing for the final bell. He’s got just one win in nine attempts, but he’s been second four times against the best available competition. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has brought this one over to race at least once each month since Mr. Z broke his maiden first time out in June. That aggressive schedule may finally be taking its toll on Mr. Z, because he lugged out in the final stages of the Los Alamitos Futurity (Dec. 20) and then, with victory within his grasp in his next race the Smarty Jones (Jan. 19), he made a sharp right turn nearing the finish. We’ve seen enough racing to know that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas can work wonders. Wonder if he can pull one more rabbit out of his hat with Mr. Z?
Pool 2 Final Odds: 44.10
17. Ocean Knight 15-1 McLaughlin
2/26 No real change in opinion on this one except to note that the McLaughlin ship took on a bit of water this past week with poor 3-year-old performances from Imperia and Frosted. A slumping barn never is a good sign for the rest of the horses stabling there. Still, there is much to like about the way this one handled two turns in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. Look for him to return in either the Tampa Bay Derby or Gotham Stakes March 7. With so much left to prove he seems undervalued at 15-1.
2/7 Nothing wrong with the way this one has handled his first two victorious outings—a four and one-quarter length maiden sprint win at Aqueduct and the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at a mile and one-sixteenth at Tampa Bay Downs. ‘Knight dominated the first, winning by four and one-quarter lengths and then overcame a wide trip to get up by a measured neck in the second. One red flag with this runner might be that his maiden triumph was almost too fast! The Thoro-Graph number was a ‘1’ and that’s a huge figure for a 2-year-old…almost too large for anyone’s good.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 18.50
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1 Cassidy
2/26 No real change for this one except that he continues to train lights out for his return to the races in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. That race won’t happen until Pool 3 wagering is closed so anyone with an ‘eight-track’ mind will need to play this one totally on the ‘come.’
2/7 Anyone wonder if this one makes the Kentucky Derby lineup he’s liable to finish eighth? No joking about ‘Ocho’s first three starts. He’s unbeaten and has earned a walloping $693k. He’s won from five and one-half furlongs to a mile and one-sixteenth. What’s not to like? Well, he hasn’t been out since late November and has just one recorded half-mile in January. That puts him a bit behind his contemporaries at this point.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 26.80
29. Prospect Park 30-1 Sise
2/26 Now that the immediate hubbub of his impressive first-level allowance win has subsided, do we all really still consider Prospect Park a possible Kentucky Derby winner? After all, he took four starts to win his maiden and that’s never a good sign. He is slated to race in the San Felipe at Santa Anita March 7, so we’ll know more then. He’s going to have to sparkle in that race to get our juices flowing. While we were impressed with his allowance win, we must remind ourselves that it was just that…an allowance win. This time of year serious Triple Crown threats ought to be winning or losing stakes races, not allowance events. I wouldn’t take 30-1 on him because of his sketchy 2-year-old form. Those stops and starts suggest physical issues that seem to be currently under control but might flare up when the real racing begins.
2/7 His last race was a tour-de-force. In a first-level allowance race at Santa Anita, he was blocked on the rail approaching the stretch under jockey Kent Desormeaux. At that point in the race, Desormeaux looked more like a water skier than a jockey as he tried to keep his mount contained. When clear Prospect Park exploded away from the field with his ears pricked to win by over five lengths. On the negative side, Prospect Park had four starts before he broke his maiden and that’s not usually the resume of a star. However, as strong as he looked winning that first-level allowance race, it’s difficult to ignore him.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 35.10
20. Texas Red 12-1 Desormeaux
2/26 Sadly, Texas Red has suffered a minor injury and will miss some time on the Triple Crown trail. Trainer Keith Desormeaux hopes to have ‘Red back in time to make the big race. Unfortunately, the challenge of getting a horse to the Derby in one piece is so demanding that any bump in the road along the way, no matter how insignificant, is serious. There’s no way I could back this one to win the Kentucky Derby at any price.
2/7 Breeders’ Cup Juvy hero Texas Red didn’t win his initial start of 2015. He lost by a mere neck to #16 Lord Nelson in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. However, the Desormeaux brothers—trainer Keith and jockey Kent—were happy with ‘Red’s race. They explained that the colt was not fully cranked for the San Vicente and that the effort will move him forward in his next start. It’s a negative from this chair that Texas Red was nailed in the final strides. Stars usually don’t get nailed in the final strides. They win, especially once they’ve made the lead. This one’s BC Juvy victory may cause him to be overhyped in 2015.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 9.10
21. The Great War 30-1 Ward
2/26 He is entered in the Battaglia Stakes at Turfway Saturday, Feb. 28. He will face 10 other foes while breaking from post 11. According to Equibase, he has no official recorded workouts since winning the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway Park January 31. He looked fantastic in winning that race and trainer Wesley Ward certainly has proven that he knows how to get one ready for a big race. Those willing to wager on this one in Pool 3 will be able to see the Battaglia results before closing time.
2/7 Different looking past performances for this one; not only because he began his career in Ireland, but also because he raced seven times as a 2-year-old before arriving in the US for the BC Juvy. Most Euro invaders are lightly raced, but this one didn’t miss a beat from April through November for top European conditioner Aidan O’Brien. The only month he didn’t race was in October—although he did make two starts in September. Now in the hands of the very capable Wesley Ward, The Great War demolished 10 foes over a synthetic surface to win a small sprint stakes at Turfway Park. Keep in mind that this one was fourth in the BC Juvy, beaten less than two lengths for second by #2 Carpe Diem and #23 Upstart in his first two-turn race on dirt! If you can get over 30-1 on this guy in Pool 2 he might be worth a stab for amusement only.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 40.90
22. Upstart 15-1 Violette
2/26 This colt won the Fountain of Youth Stakes…well…at least he got to the finish first. Upstart was disqualified from the victory for interfering with Itsaknockout through the stretch. Over what many have called a ‘very deep and tiring’ Gulfstream surface, it appeared that Upstart labored a bit near the end and certainly was not as energetic as he had been in his Holy Bull romp. Some experts are giving him a pass for the Fountain of Youth. We are not. We think he ran too fast in the Holy Bull and that is why he regressed noticeably in the Fountain of Youth. Trainer Rick Violette apparently will skip the Florida Derby with this one and perhaps aim for the Wood. The colt’s prospects of winning the Kentucky Derby aren’t anywhere near 15-1 in our mind. It would take much higher odds for us to be interested in backing him at all.
2/7 A winner of three of five starts, Upstart is a hot horse right now. He romped in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream last time out and will be a very short price when he runs back in the Fountain of Youth. Upstart never has been worse than third and he has two Beyer figures over 100—a 102 when he was second in the Champagne to #4 Daredevil and a 106 from the Holy Bull. So, what’s not to like about Upstart? Nothing really, except that by running as fast as he has already he may have peaked too early. The Kentucky Derby isn’t until the first Saturday in May. To have a horse go about as fast as a 3-year-old can run in January is not a good thing.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 12.80
23. War Story 30-1 Amoss
2/26 War Story has started just four times so far, so there’s plenty of room for improvement. He won his first out over the Churchill Downs strip--and that’s a plus. He then moved from the Ron Moquett barn into the shedrow of Tom Amoss to win an allowance race and to finished second in the LeComte and Risen Star to #11 International Star—all at Fair Grounds. There is much to like about this one and if you have a high opinion of #11 International Star, then your outlook on this one can’t be much less. Plus, since he’s run half as often as that foe, War Story has much more upside. In the Risen Star, International Star got through on the rail and War Story moved at least four paths wide into the stretch. That lost ground could account for his losing margin. That said, War Story still will need to show a bit more of a finishing kick to get a mile and one-quarter effectively on Derby Day.
24. All Other Three Year Olds 3-1
2/26: This entry is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in Pool 3 of the 141st Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Certainly no sophomore has dominated the early 3-year-old picture and we haven’t yet seen American Pharoah or Carpe Diem--two of the most highly regarded 3-year-olds--in 2015, so it makes sense that players would back this smorgasbord of runners. However, it’s getting a bit late for an obscure runner to leap into the Kentucky Derby picture.
2/7: If you believe that there’s safety in numbers then this is the play for you. Of course, there’s also the old saw that claims misery loves company. At a short price, we’d rather buy another round at the bar than to tie up our shekels until May without much of a possible return on investment.
2/8: Here’s one reason the All Other Three Year Olds category is so popular: Far From Over…a sentiment that aptly applies to the Derby trail and the name of one of Saturday’s most surprising 3-year-old winner. Left at the start of The Withers at Aqueduct, Far From Over raced well behind the rest of the field. Gradually, he improved his position and while favored El Kabeir and Classy Class were hammering each other into oblivion, Far From Over rallied in the stretch to win easily. Far From Over, from the Todd Pletcher outfit, now is unbeaten in two Aqueduct starts. All things considered, his Withers win was a bit too impressive, but he’s a good one to have on your side in the All Other Three Year Olds category.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 2.50
Bonus Coverage of 3-year-olds Included in Pool 2 but Not in Pool 3:
Competitive Edge
2/26 From what I’m reading and hearing about this one it seems like he may be headed for something other than the Kentucky Derby…like maybe the Preakness (although Pletcher’s never been a big Preakness guy).
2/6 Like Carpe Diem, this is a Todd Pletcher runner. Normally, that’s a positive, but when you’re talking Kentucky Derby, Pletcher hasn’t had nearly the same domination as he does in most other Grade 1 races. ‘Edge is unbeaten in two starts at Saratoga and finally is back in training in Florida at Palm Beach Downs. He’s about as far along as Carpe Diem, so they both will need to hustle a bit to be ready soon. According to Pletcher, he’s about 3 – 4 weeks away. He will have two Derby preps.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 37.30
Frosted
2/26 He made the lead in the Fountain of Youth like he was going to run away from the field. Unfortunately, for some strange reason, he stopped running. Did the deep track knock him for a loop? Did he pull himself up when he made the lead? Did he injure himself? Trainer McLaughlin didn’t have any obvious excuse for this one after the race, so there still are legitimate questions.
2/7 This one really hasn’t taken a backward step since finishing a well-whipped second behind Bayerd first out in August at the Spa. #23 Upstart smoked Frosted in the Holy Bull, but that was at a mile and one-sixteenth. This son of Tapit might have more to give as the distances increase and he’s allowed to settle and make a long, sustained run. His next start will be just his third with Lasix, so there ought to be room for improvement.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 31.20
Gorgeous Bird
2/26 Considered a bit of a hot horse off a seven-furlong allowance score, Gorgeous Bird could do no better than fifth in the Fountain of Youth. There was nothing about that race to suggest that this one is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.
2/7 He won a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream like a monster. That was only his third start in a well-spaced out campaign with races in August, November and January. He’s improved with each start moving from six and one-half furlongs to seven-eighths to a mile and one-sixteenth. Beyer speed figures have progressed from 57 to 75 to 84. That’s all good stuff for owner Marylou Whitney and trainer Ian Wilkes, who is advised by Derby-winning Hall-of-Fame conditioner Carl Nafzger.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 32.50
Imperia
2/26 This colt’s first race off a layoff since the Kentucky Jockey Club in November came in the Risen Star and it wasn’t a promising performance. Imperia began his career with a trio of turf races and then switched to Churchill dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club for a top performance. Unfortunately, Imperia doesn’t seem to be ready to give his best yet in 2015.
2/7 He began his career on the turf for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin—who also trains #9 Frosted & #18 Ocean Knight—winning one of three grass starts (Gr. 3 Pilgrim Stakes). His only dirt outing resulted in a closing second to #6 El Kabier in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. It’s too early to come down hard on either side of this one. He’s got a closing style that might be an advantage as the distances increase. Stay tuned.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 24.10
J S Bach
2/26 Whatever chance he had to do some damage on the Triple Crown trail this season has been severely diminished. He was supposed to run in the Southwest Stakes, but that race was postponed eight days because of poor weather. In that time he developed a fever and was forced to miss that start. When anything goes wrong with a 3-year-old at this time of the year, it’s an issue and JS Bach will have an uphill struggle to get back on track for the Kentucky Derby.
2/7 This one was very impressive when breaking his maiden at Gulfstream by over eight lengths going a mile and one-sixteenth in just his second career start for trainer Todd Pletcher. The dominating performance, however, was not as highly rated according to Beyer speed figures which ranked ‘Bach’s nearly two-length defeat first out at five and one-half furlongs at 92 and the maiden romp at just 87.
Pool 2 Final Odds: 69.20
