|
|
Post by Evelyn on Jul 4, 2017 19:48:34 GMT -5
Jon asked me to post this. We notice how often odds drop after a race has started. Would you be in favor of a fixed odds concept?
Fixing Odds is a Fix, But it's an Impossible One in US Racing
PTP
watched a youtube interview with long time horseplayer Dave Gutfreund today. Dave decided to hang it up with horse race betting and concentrate on poker. He believes (among other things) late odds drops through money jamming the pools at one minute to post (via computer batch wagering and off-track money) are too much for him to handle.
He's right and this is a huge issue for gamblers, because it's very difficult to decipher what odds a horse will go off at when we make a wager. If we believe a horse is worth a 30% chance and we see 3-1 we wager, but the horse could end up at 7-5 so it's a bet we never would've made.
In Australia this was an issue, as well, but there was a fix. A fixed odds fix. In the early 2000's, fixed odds wagering represented about $40M in handle. By 2016, this number had vaulted to over $3.5B.
The market spoke and the industry listened. They offered what the customer wanted, in a tech world which demands it.
This avenue allows the industry to hold onto people like Dave, while still keeping a vibrant pari-mutuel system (with higher takeout) that grabs more margin from casual players. It also allows them to make more money on big days from once a year fans. If they want to be more than once a year fans, or once a year players, of course, there's a fixed odds system to attract them, with lower takeout.
This ecosystem also means the tote can be nimble. For example, not long ago they've looked at pricing higher on weekends and less during the week:
• "We don’t run a business based on what we want customers to bet on, we make sure we give customers what they want. We would like a pricing flexibility environment. Our strategy is to combine an offering to customers that has fixed-odds and pari-mutuel.”
Here in North America this type of modern dynamic pricing environment is virtually impossible to achieve. Some of it is regulatory, yes, but most, in my view, is from being tied to the status-quo anchor. Change would result in lower margins, certainly in the short term, and in this industry anything that results in a lower margin is simply a non-starter.
With sports betting being looked at by the Supreme Court, more and more betting customers will be introduced to fixed odds. And they will flock to it. But they'll probably be betting the Steelers or the Black Hawks; there will be no way to do the same thing in the sixth at Belmont.
|
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125 
|
Post by george on Jul 5, 2017 6:47:57 GMT -5
What would solve the problem is closing betting a minute before post time, REAL post time. They did this for a short time after that Breeders' Cup pick six fraud (for which the three people involved went to jail) Unfortunately that didn't last long. I suspect it was done strictly for show, and after people forgot about the scandal they went back to their old ways.
The way betting is conducted at some tracks is ridiculous these days. Look at Gulfstream Park or the Meadowlands, two of the worst offenders. They put up a post time for a race but the race rarely goes off until six or seven minutes after that time. I've seen Gulfstream races routinely go off as much as nine minutes late. That's ridiculous.
Now, look at NYRA races. For as long as I can remember, they stick to their post times religiously. They put up the post time for a race, set the MTP to one minute less (i.e., if post time is 1:00 and it's 12:50, MTP would be 9), and within seconds of the real post time betting is closed. They've been doing that for more than 50 years, and even in these days of simulcasting, betting closes at post time.
|
|
qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
|
Post by qhwizard on Jul 5, 2017 17:45:40 GMT -5
but its also a lot easier to stick to the listed post time when you only have 5 horses to load every race. less chance for something to delay it.
|
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125
|
Post by george on Jul 5, 2017 21:12:53 GMT -5
They get the races off on time even when there are 14 horses to load.
|
|
cait
Active Member
Posts: 3,821 
|
Post by cait on Jul 5, 2017 21:48:32 GMT -5
well then, guess SA races go off before post time  geo - being as computer batching and OTB's are given as the reason why (not gate loading) do you know who decides the cut off time (or if there even is one?) - or if the tracks just have to wait? - or if tracks could impose a cut off time? (although they prolly wouldn't want to do that for fear of losing $) Is there something that determines this over which the tracks have no control? those odds drops happen with international wagering also am not sure I understand the "fixed wagering" or if that's a possible fix? also not sure how it could be implemented |
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125
|
Post by george on Jul 6, 2017 8:54:55 GMT -5
well then, guess SA races go off before post time geo - being as computer batching and OTB's are given as the reason why (not gate loading) do you know who decides the cut off time (or if there even is one?) - or if the tracks just have to wait? - or if tracks could impose a cut off time? (although they prolly wouldn't want to do that for fear of losing $) Is there something that determines this over which the tracks have no control? those odds drops happen with international wagering also am not sure I understand the "fixed wagering" or if that's a possible fix? also not sure how it could be implemented I guess it would work like the bookmakers in the UK work. When you make your bet you get the odds they're offering at the time. If a horse starts getting heavily bet they drop the odds to cover themselves, sometimes way below what "fair" odds should be. That encourages early betting if you really like a long shot. But the way this is described here, it seems everyone gets the same price, which is ultimately what they call "fixed odds"? I think the track sets the cutoff time, which is generally when the first few horses enter the gate. The reason it works so well in NY is that they've been doing it for at least 50 years - anyone betting on NYRA races knows when the windows are going to be closed, so very few people get shut out. Even when there's a late scratch, depending upon when the scratch occurs, they don't extend betting like they do at other tracks. What they do at Los Alamitos is ridiculous. A horse gets scratched and there's a four or five minute delay to "reset the gate"?!?! WTF? Presumably that's just to move the numbers on the stalls (actually it's to let people re-bet the race). Just take the number of the scratched horse off the gate and leave the others where they are like they do at other tracks! Gulfstream is the worst at this - the horses don't even get on the track until a couple of minutes before "post time", and they don't even start approaching the gate until five or six minutes after "post time". Lots of harness tracks are doing that now, and the Meadowlands is the worst at that, too. The horses don't even leave the paddock until a minute or two AFTER "post time"! I've stopped betting the Meadowlands and don't even watch them anymore, it's just too frustrating. |
|
qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
|
Post by qhwizard on Jul 6, 2017 13:59:03 GMT -5
ive heard you bring this up many times George and I still don't get what the big deal is. if you know these tracks do this then what is so hard about adjusting to it yourself? first off if your watching video feed live you can see when they are approaching the gate and its time to bet. second, other then not getting shut out, why does it matter?
as far as los Alamitos goes, are you serious? if a horse gets scratched at the gate you want them to reload with no delay and start the race? that's the most ludicrous thing ive ever heard. I mean obviously the delay isn't just to move the numbers on the gate, but why not do it to kill time while they are letting the public cancel and rebet? I just cant believe you would actually not want the delay.
|
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125
|
Post by george on Jul 7, 2017 9:39:18 GMT -5
I just don't understand the point.
Looking at it logically, let's say first post is 1:00. So they go off at 1:08. Second post is 1:30, but it goes off at 1:38. Thirty minutes between races, typical these days. Third post is 2:00, goes off at 2:08. Still 30 minutes. So if they got the first race off on time, and subsequent races on time too, it's the same 30 minutes between races. At least bettors know when the races are going off. Even better, set the first post at 1:08, second at 1:38, etc. What's the point of running each and every race 8 minutes late? That's the way it used to be, why do they have to be misleading?
As for Los Alamitos, again why be deceitful and say "a slight delay to reset the gate"? Just say "slight delay for those with the late scratch to bet alternate horses"?
By the way, Texas (most often Retama) they've got a different ploy. It seems at least once a night they announce as the horses are going to the gate "there will be a late change of jockey"! How many times have you seen late jockey changes at the gate at any other track? I can't recall any. Not only that, but you'd think they'd get the jockey in a vehicle and drive him out to the gate. No, the horse has to go all the way back to the paddock (behind the grandstand), get the new jockey, then jog back to the gate. Ridiculous.
It's these delays that turn people away from horse racing.
|
|
lt1
Moderator 
Posts: 824
|
Post by lt1 on Jul 7, 2017 10:28:46 GMT -5
If track post times such as what goes on Gulfstream annoy you then don't play the track. Everyone should know what goes on at the track they play. As Wiz stated if you are watching the live feed there is no way you should get shut out. As for late odds changes most of you play the major tracks so with 1 min to post you pretty much going to get close to what's showing on the board. I play mid to small tracks which are subject to those types of changes. I expect and live with it since it tends to balance out with some of my bets going under what I would normally accept while others go up to better then I thought I get. Bottom line who cares what the post time is just give me the types of races I want to play.
|
|
qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
|
Post by qhwizard on Jul 7, 2017 10:42:22 GMT -5
you're right. I don't understand the point either.
I'm just saying, of all the issues you can come up with that are wrong with the sport these day, and this is the battle you want to choose to fight? like I said if this is what their normal way of foing things is then people should and are used to it.
with los al a lot of it is exactly what they say. quarter horses are more nervous and do a lot more thrashing about in the gate. when they do and if they break thru the gate, it throws off the automatic timer and they DO have to reset the gate. unlike thoroughbred racing, the timer starts on a qh race as soo as the gate opens, not after a run up of anywhere form 20 to 100 feet. the gate DOES need to be reset the timer is correct.
also I don't know about every night, (that might be a bit of an exaggeration on your part) but I do see late jockey changes after the warm ups and at the gate quite often, especially at cheaper tracks with cheaper horses. guys warm up horses all the time and then refuse to ride them because they are off and don't feel right. now if you volunteer as a replacement jock at the last second, is it really asking to much tfor an extra 2 minutes to ride him back to the gate to get a feel for him yourself before you risk your life on a horse that is already questionable? I think not.
I just think these issues are meaningless for the most part and are not going to to deter fans nearly as much as getting shut out trying to rebet after a late scratch or watching your jockey fall off because he wasn't properly warmed up on his horse.
|
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125
|
Post by george on Jul 7, 2017 12:52:12 GMT -5
The discussion began about huge changes in odds shortly before or even after a race goes off, and how to possibly minimize that. My suggestion was to cut off betting before the established post time.
There are significant odds changes even at the bigger, high-handle tracks like Belmont and Santa Anita. Even if races are closed at post time that won't completely eliminate big odds changes, but at least it would eliminate the perception that there are shenanigans going on, and by closing betting at a fixed time (not the variable times at some tracks - 6 minutes, 7 minutes, whatever) everyone involved knows precisely when betting is closed.
|
|
qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
|
Post by qhwizard on Jul 7, 2017 13:17:01 GMT -5
the perception? no matter whatyou do there will always be those who think something shady is going on, and it is usually those who are consistent losers who think that way. changing post times isn't going change that. the fact is 20-25 % of a races handle usually comes in in the last minute or two before the race goes off. the track isn't going to cut off betting when there is still a majority of wagers being made. and a lot of people are just simply not going to bet until after they have seen the horses warm up and there is a substantial amount already bet so they can get a better grasp on what the odds will be. forcing people to bet earlier isn't going to stabilize the pool fluctuations any.it will make it worse because there will be less money in the pools.
|
|
Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
|
Post by Nostradamus on Jul 8, 2017 18:55:23 GMT -5
You can't stop people from betting at the last minute because they do not want anyone to know who they like and so no one knows the odds are going to drop big time because they bet big bucks at the last minute (causing others to jump on their horse further dropping the odds). Only a big government want-to-control-every-aspect-of-your-life snowflake mindset would want to micromanage this aspect of racing. Poor little baby, did the odds drop on you after the horses left the gate? Maybe if a horse is 5/2 in the last minute when he really should be 1/1 then you should know beforehand that something is up and a big drop could be coming. Duh. So what difference does it make whether the money is bet before or after you have time to react? If you like a horse then bet it no matter what the odds are - not just because there is a sudden drop in odds. It is better to cash a ticket on a 1/1 shot then throw away a ticket on a loser anyway. And a gambler who bets big bucks has every right to take every advantage possible to make sure he gets the best odds he can - its call competition and using your brains to outsmart the other gambler. I'm sure there are as many cases where it backfires and the late bet horse looses as much as the late bet horse winds up winning, so in any case just ignore the odds because they only represent the opinions of other gamblers - and you know what they say about opinions and A-holes.
|
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125
|
Post by george on Jul 8, 2017 19:27:43 GMT -5
And no matter how serious and civil a discussion is, you always manage to drag it down and look like an idiot. At least you're consistent.
|
|
qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
|
Post by qhwizard on Jul 9, 2017 1:10:19 GMT -5
AMEN GEORGE. IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE WHO IS ON WHAT SIDE OF ANY DISCUSSION, THE LAST THING ANYONE WANTS IS THIS JACKASS ARGUING THEIR SIDE FOR THEM. wHAT A F*ING DUMBASS. THIS IS THE PERFECT EXAMPLE OF WHY YOU DONT WIN AND IN YOUR OWN WORDS, DONT KNOW HOW TO BET. INSTEAD OF ACTING LIKE YOU KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT EVERYTHING, WHY NOT JUST TRY SHUTTING THE F* UP AND LISTENING AND MAYBE YOU MIGHT LEARN SOMETHING.
first off, if you don't want people to know who you bet, hide your F*ing tickets jackass. 95% of people betting aren't betting enough to fluctuate the pools anyway, so that has nothing to do with this argument. how are bringing politics into this. even though I am not for big government in any way, this had nothing to do with the topic or conversation.
secondly, once again showing why you never win, it is about value. you making the following statement proves your stupidity............
"So what difference does it make whether the money is bet before or after you have time to react? If you like a horse then bet it no matter what the odds are - not just because there is a sudden drop in odds. It is better to cash a ticket on a 1/1 shot then throw away a ticket on a loser anyway." "so in any case just ignore the odds because they only represent the opinions of other gamblers."
really? you cant really be this dumb. it has to be an act.
|
|
|
|
Post by byanose13 on Jul 10, 2017 14:56:07 GMT -5
I actually have to disagree with LT1 on this. If you play the small to mid-size tracks then you have seen odds change drastically just after the gates open as it takes far less money to change the odds at those tracks than at Belmont,Saratoga,SA or others so, that being said I hate to have a exacta going with what I thought was a 3-1 and a 7/2 only to have their odds change DURING the race to 2-1 and 5/2. I will stand with those that say the wagering should close 1 minute before post time and it is just that POST TIME(when the race is due to go off). If you can't get your bet in by 29 minutes instead of 30 then tough shit.
|
|
george
Active Member
Posts: 125
|
Post by george on Jul 11, 2017 7:48:17 GMT -5
I actually have to disagree with LT1 on this. If you play the small to mid-size tracks then you have seen odds change drastically just after the gates open as it takes far less money to change the odds at those tracks than at Belmont,Saratoga,SA or others so, that being said I hate to have a exacta going with what I thought was a 3-1 and a 7/2 only to have their odds change DURING the race to 2-1 and 5/2. I will stand with those that say the wagering should close 1 minute before post time and it is just that POST TIME(when the race is due to go off). If you can't get your bet in by 29 minutes instead of 30 then tough shit. Precisely my point. People forget the "good ol' days" when there was no simulcasting or OTB money being fed into the pools. When post time arrived, regardless of how many horses are in the gate or how much has been bet on the race, the bell rang and the betting machines were locked. The race could actually go off two or three minutes later due to circumstances, but betting was still closed so the race wasn't delayed to get more money bet. Look at it this way (I think I tried to explain it, maybe not the clearest) - what's the difference between closing betting at 1:00, 1:30, 2:00, etc. or 1:08, 1:38, 2:08? Nothing. So why just run the races when you SAY they're going to be run? Another thing that people forget is that years ago, before all the exotic wagering we have today, there was one "exotic" wager - the daily double. Double betting was closed ten minutes before the first race! The logic behind that was back then if you wanted to make different types of bets you had to run from window to window, and they wanted the Double bettors to have a few minutes to get to the Win window. |
|
qhwizard
Active Member
aqueduct sucks, belmont sucks, saratoga sucks, and everything in MD. sucks. wespecially timonium!!
Posts: 765
|
Post by qhwizard on Jul 11, 2017 12:22:39 GMT -5
George, not to be a dick, but the good ol days are gone, never to return. yes, maybe they did shut off wagering at a certain time. but they also didn't depend on all that otb and simulcast money to survive. if they just said to hell with them they would go broke in a heartbeat. the tracks used to fet 20-25k on a weekday and 40-50k on a weekend also. now they don't get 5k. I agree if your going to run at 8 past the hour you might as well post that as the off time, bu the fact is it would just cause people to wait 8 minutes longer to start their betting. people are creatures of habit and the tracks are not going to lose their money when they all start getting shut out.
|
|
cait
Active Member
Posts: 3,821
|
Post by cait on Jul 16, 2017 16:36:47 GMT -5
I play aussie a lot - they have simulcast $ but manage to get races off close to post time - but odds do change after the race is off - especially annoying when a horse should be 3-1 and is sitting at 10-1 but then drops to 4-1 after the break - tracks do need the simulcast $ so not sure there's an answer
|
|
