G3 Spiral Sat 3/23 Pts: 50-20-10-5

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Jon
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G3 Spiral Sat 3/23 Pts: 50-20-10-5 Mar 18, 2013 19:49:33 GMT -5

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Post by Jon on Mar 18, 2013 19:49:33 GMT -5

16 Derby hopefuls under consideration for Spiral

At last count, the list of hopefuls for Saturday's Grade 3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park stood at 16. With Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line, the 12 starters will be determined by earnings in graded stakes, then by earnings in stakes, and finally by career earnings.
Turfway Park Stakes Coordinator Tia Murphy has the Spiral hopefuls list in order of preference as follows:

Uncaptured (trainer Mark Casse); Balance the Books (Chad Brown); Mac the Man (Jeff Greenhill); General Election (Kellyn Gorder); Capo Bastone (Todd Pletcher); Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker); Channel Isle (D. Wayne Lukas); My Name is Michael (Bill Mott); Black Onyx (Kelly Breen); Giant Finish (Tony Dutrow); Taken by the Storm (Ken McPeek); and For Greater Glory (Steve Hobby).

Needing defections are Cerro (Graham Motion); Red Wings (Lukas); Divine Ambition (Darrin Miller); and Crop Report (Motion).

Mac the Man has two stakes wins, both coming in Turfway preps. The Greenhill trainee won the Turfway Prevue at 6 1/2 furlongs in January and the 96ROCK Stakes at a mile in February. But after reviewing the colt's seven starts, Greenhill decided to sit out the third prep, the John Battaglia Memorial on March 2, and train up to the Spiral. Daily training has kept the stable's star fit for the 1 1/8-mile Spiral.

"The Battaglia would have been four races in 2 1/2 months, so that would have made the Spiral five races in about three months," the trainer explained. "I wanted to give him a little break.

"We breezed him twice since the 96ROCK. The second breeze, last Friday, he went in company. The other horse broke off in front and then Mac the Man caught him about the eighth-pole and drew off. The other horse was trying to win, but I told the rider, 'If your horse beats Mac the Man, just keep on riding.'

"That was his last breeze before the Spiral, but he gallops a mile and a half and jogs a mile every day, so he's fit and ready."

Mac the Man went five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 for the breeze on Friday at Turfway, tying for the second fastest of 11 at the distance.

Norberto Arroyo Jr., top rider for the holiday meet and currently the winter/spring meet leader, was aboard for Mac the Man's last three races -- all wins -- and will have the mount on Saturday. Greenhill trains Mac the Man for his wife, Sherri Greenhill. The colt is stabled at Turfway.

McPeek always figured to have a strong hand for the Spiral. He still does, though his Spiral representative has changed during the course of the past couple of weeks.

Frac Daddy was originally slated to contest the Spiral, but the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up has been battling an ulcer, so McPeek will reroute the son of Scat Daddy to the Grade 1 Florida Derby to give him an extra week to recuperate.

The McPeek barn has a more than adequate substitute, though, in Taken by the Storm, an allowance winner on the grass last out at Gulfstream Park March 9. Taken by the Storm has already won at the Spiral distance of 1 1/8 miles, taking a maiden special on the Keeneland grass October 27. He also was first in an October 7 maiden over Keeneland's Polytrack but was disqualified to second.

"Frac Daddy's slight ulcer that we're dealing with is 90 percent there, but it's not all the way there, so we made the decision to wait the extra week," McPeek revealed. "Taken by the Storm is coming off a nice win, and it is fortuitous that we can bring him back quickly for the Spiral."

Alan Garcia, winner of the 2011 Spiral aboard Animal Kingdom, will have the riding assignment on Taken by the Storm. Garcia rode Taken by the Storm for the first time in the March 9 allowance tally at Gulfstream.

Taken by the Storm is 11th on the probables list with $73,385 in earnings

McPeek also intends to run Pure Fun in the Grade 3 Bourbonette Oaks on the Spiral undercard. Both McPeek horses will fly to Lexington, Kentucky, Thursday and stable at Keeneland before vanning to Turfway Saturday morning.
While Mac the Man skipped the Battaglia Memorial on March 2, Giant Finish made his first foray into open company in that race. The New York-bred son of Frost Giant rewarded trainer Tony Dutrow's confidence with a strong second-place finish despite breaking from the far outside in the 11-horse field and dealing with a rapid early pace.

"I was very happy and a little surprised that he ran so well in the Battaglia given that he is still so mentally immature," Dutrow said. "He's a young horse. He's learning and improving. I don't know what we're going to see on Saturday. I'm thinking we will see better horses in against him. I'm just anxious to see if he'll improve."

Dutrow's confidence is buoyed by his experience to date with offspring of the young sire Frost Giant.

"I have a handful of them," he said. "Some have performed well as two-year-olds, but it's always been my opinion that they're going to be better as three-year-olds."

The Southern California-based Victor Espinoza will ride Giant Finish for the first time on Saturday.

Giant Finish currently stands 10th on the Spiral Stakes list by virtue of career earnings of $81,900. Stabled at Keeneland, he will van to Turfway on the morning of the Spiral and be saddled by Mark Hubley, a longtime friend of Dutrow's from their days competing against each other at Delaware Park.

Gorder believed that two subpar performances at Fair Grounds did not tell the truth about General Election, and the colt proved him right in the Battaglia Memorial, closing to win by a half-length over Giant Finish and For Greater Glory, both also on track for the Spiral Stakes.

"He didn't like the surface at Fair Grounds, but he's already won on dirt, and he's already won at Churchill. He broke his maiden at Churchill, and he trained there last summer. And then he won the Battaglia on the Polytrack," Gorder said. "He came out of the Battaglia in really good shape. We gave him an easy breeze Saturday at Keeneland (four furlongs in :51 4/5), and we're looking forward to the race on Saturday."

Gorder believes as well in his jockey, Albin Jimenez, who was aboard for the Battaglia and will be back up Saturday. Jimenez is currently second in the Turfway standings behind Arroyo.

"Albin rode the horse really well," Gorder said. "He's an up-and-coming rider. I was telling someone the other day, this is a kid you're going to hear about in the future."

The Spiral Stakes is the 10th of 12 races carded Saturday. The race offers 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner, 20 to the runner-up, 10 for third, and five for fourth. First post Saturday is 1:10 p.m. (EDT).

www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=35218&from=656

Jon
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G3 Spiral Sat 3/23 Pts: 50-20-10-5 Mar 23, 2013 0:28:44 GMT -5

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Post by Jon on Mar 23, 2013 0:28:44 GMT -5

Good analysis

Spiral Field A Handicapping Challenge

By Dick Downey
@downeyprofile

The 2013 edition of the Grade III Spiral Stakes brings together an interesting mixture of dirt, turf and synthetic track runners that includes shippers and local entries.

Uncaptured, trained by Mark Casse, has lost only once in seven starts. At Woodbine on Polytrack in the Grade III Grey Stakes, he was shuffled back and checked. He figures to be prominent in the early and late running of the Spiral. It's his first race in five months, but if you put stock in the idea that horses that win at first asking do well off a layoff, then this could be your horse. In five races on Polytrack, he won his first four. He’s won sprinting, he's won at two turns and he‘s won on dirt.

In his most recent start, the one that’s gotten him the most attention, Uncaptured won the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club. The top two horses he beat, Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, have not produced much this year, and that makes Uncaptured a tougher read.

His last time out, Balance the Books ran third in the Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Noble Tune edged him by a neck, and that one came back a couple of weeks ago to win a good turf allowance at Tampa after a furious stretch run. Balance the Books was pointing to the Grade III Palm Beach Stakes, but a minor issue caused him to miss it.

Trainer Chad Brown believes that of his pair of 3-year-old turf stars, Balance the Books has more wind; thus, he makes his 2013 debut in a nine-furlong race. In his career debut, Balance the Books was second, beaten only a half-length on the turf at Saratoga. With all four of his starts coming on turf, there's not much reason to believe he won't take to Polytrack.

Usually, the local horses that do well in the Spiral preps are overshadowed by the shippers when the big day comes. Mac the Man could be an exception. He was very sharp winning both the 6 1/2-furlong Turfway Prevue and the one-mile 96 ROCKS at the track.

Trainer Jeff Greenhill probably did the right thing giving Mac the Man a break by skipping the Battaglia Memorial. He’s shooting for the big one here, and who can blame him? Mac the Man is by El Corredor, and so a question is whether Mac the Man can get nine furlongs -- but you could say that about some other Spiral entries. And like Greenhill said on Tuesday, Mac the Man has been visually impressive.

General Election won the Battaglia for Kellyn Gorder after avoiding trouble a couple of times. The main drawback, though, is always the same -- the level of competition increases significantly on Saturday. Tony Dutrow’s Giant Finish, a gritty second in the Battaglia after being four wide; and Steve Hobby’s For Greater Glory, who was third after getting caught up in the Battaglia traffic trouble, have similar issues.

Capo Bastone won his most recent race on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park. Unless something was wrong with the timer that day, he ran one 1/16 mile in 1:48.16, yet he has a relatively low morning line. Todd Pletcher said the condition of the track could have been to blame. Offlee Fast, who almost held off Capo Bastone that day, went on be unplaced in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby.

Either Fear the Kitten missed a work last weekend, or the clockers missed it. His March 3 breeze at Turfway indicates a liking for the surface, and he’s battle tested after finishing third on dirt in the Grade III Lecomte and second in the Grade III Southwest -- albeit beaten multiple lengths each time. Figure-wise, Fear the Kitten may not, ahem, figure unless the Turfway surface moves him up. He won his debut on Polytrack at Keeneland. Mike Maker might have him right where he wants him.

My Name Is Michael is an interesting entry. Accepted into the Bill Mott barn sometime prior to February, he’s a product of juvenile races at Woodbine. He finished second in the Display Stakes in December. After Mott took him in, My Name Is Michael raced on dirt in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes and finished third, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. Mott was pointing him to the Fountain of Youth, but My Name Is Michael got sick and missed the race. Since then, he's put in two breezes at Payson Park, the most recent one a bullet. He is well bred and could be a contender on Saturday with a good closing kick. Mott knows what it takes to win this race.

Another veteran of the Spiral is D. Wayne Lukas, who sends in Channel Isle. Lukas has compared Channel Isle, a son of English Channel, to Optimizer, in that they both possess a good turf pedigree. As we found out last year after the Kentucky Derby, Optimizer is an excellent turf horse. After Channel Isle finished a distant fourth on a sloppy track in the Grade III Southwest, Lukas said the colt wants more ground -- and now he has it. Expect him to be running late, it's just a question of whether he can get there fast enough.

Black Onyx, from the barn of Kelly Breen, can‘t be overlooked. Last year, he had two starts, both of them taken off the turf, and he ran pretty well on dirt rated fast However, his debut this year, also on dirt, did not go well, but when he finally made a turf start at Gulfstream Park, he won very impressively. Now switching to Polytrack, he looks dangerous.

Ken McPeek sends in Taken by the Storm off 14 days’ rest after he took a one-mile turf allowance at Gulfstream in under 1:35.00. That race followed a poor effort on dirt, Last year, he beat Channel Isle by 4 1/2 lengths going nine furlongs on the grass at Keeneland. To add to the difficulty of handicapping this race, Taken by the Storm could be a quickly-improving type after getting past some minor issues earlier this year in Florida.

I consider this to be a quality field, and the jockeys we’re seeing back that up. Not to slight anyone who’s not mentioned, but we have Julien Leparoux on Balance the Books, Jon Court on Channel Isle, Rose Napravnik on Fear the Kitten, Joel Rosario on My Name Is Michael and John Velazquez on Capo Bastone.

This is one tough race, and I could be way off, but I’m putting some price shots in these selections.

DICK’S PICKS:

1. FEAR THE KITTEN
2. MY NAME IS MICHAEL
3. BALANCE THE BOOKS
4. MAC THE MAN

I’ll box those four in an exacta and hope for the best. I suppose Uncaptured will blow these picks apart, but I’ll take a chance. One other thing -- I really hate leaving out Black Onyx. Tough.

racinggal Active Member Posts: 1,820	G3 Spiral Sat 3/23 Pts: 50-20-10-5 Mar 23, 2013 15:32:22 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by racinggal on Mar 23, 2013 15:32:22 GMT -5 I like his Rosie pick! I'm boxing Fear the Kitten, Black Onyx and Balance the books.

racinggal Active Member Posts: 1,820	G3 Spiral Sat 3/23 Pts: 50-20-10-5 Mar 23, 2013 17:55:06 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by racinggal on Mar 23, 2013 17:55:06 GMT -5 Well - at least I had Black Onyx. What happened to BTB? Maybe he needed the race or doesn't really like synth?

G3 Spiral Sat 3/23 Pts: 50-20-10-5

Post by Jon on Mar 18, 2013 19:49:33 GMT -5

Post by Jon on Mar 23, 2013 0:28:44 GMT -5

Post by racinggal on Mar 23, 2013 15:32:22 GMT -5

Post by racinggal on Mar 23, 2013 17:55:06 GMT -5