Post by qhwizard on Oct 19, 2016 1:36:48 GMT -5
race 10
this is actually a very good race for the level with a few horses who I think could move right up the ladder into stakes competition soon. now if I can just get some good luck for once.............
as I said, there are a few who figure well and were btl last time and who could win this. but I think the value and the ones I like best are the 3,1 and maybe 10. both 1 and 3 ran over their conditions last time and were basically eliminated at the start while showing run while not asked. plus, not only were they tougher conditions, but they have proven to be productive races. the 3 was very impressive the race before at this same level win winning easily but then getting dq'd from the purse money later. if he runs back to that race I believe he wins here. the 10 has been very troubled two races in a row when I bet him and he should have won. but those weren't as good of horses as the 1 and 3 have been running against. he doesn't get a great post however for him and a positive jockey change. I think all 3 of them would appreciate a little more distance but should be able to get up with clean trips at this distance also. the 2 chalks, the 2 and 8, both have chances also but I think have question marks and might get over bet. the 2 beat absolutely nothing at beltarra. yes the race was fast, and they went .22 faster then winners did the next race that day, but beltarra is also a faster track then Indiana so who knows. yes it looked good but he was also very green in his only other start here at Indiana. plus the jock jumps off to take the 10. the 8 ran well against trial horses in his last and yes the top two were probably better then these but he also had very little trouble. the chart is misleading and he wasn't really finishing that well. plus, even though he is a 3 time winner and appears to be dropping in class, in my opinion he possibly should be running at a level below as 2 of those wins came in trials at Arapahoe. who knows what he was beating in there. he might have been running against two llamas and a billy goat for all I know. the only other two horses to even consider anywhere would be the 4 and 6 in the tris and supers but I don't like either to be in the exacta. the 6 was troubled and btl last time and finished well but it was a fast day and the time still doesn't put him close to the top horses in here, and the 4 is quick early but just not good enough. he may break well enough tho hang on for a piece but not win.
I will post my exact plays in the morning.
