Watchmaker on the Rebel
Mar 17, 2013 13:22:03 GMT -5
Post by cait on Mar 17, 2013 13:22:03 GMT -5
agree! altho' i think the Wood may be the best prep re quality
03/17/2013 1:07PM
Notes on the Rebel,
By Mike Watchmaker
Oxbow ran well in narrow defeat in the Rebel. He was close to a lively pace, and the early pace player who was closest to Oxbow at the end, 6-5 favorite Super Ninety Nine, finished a large 8 1-4 lengths behind him in fifth. Den’s Legacy also ran well finishing third in the Rebel, beaten two lengths for it all. Den’s Legacy was on the rail every step of the way, but the rail is often not the place to be at Oaklawn, and that appeared to be the case again Saturday.
That said, the initial impression is the Rebel will join a list of suspect races for this particular 3-year-old crop. Going back to last fall, the Remsen, the Kentucky Jockey Club, the San Vicente, and the Risen Star are, for starters and for the moment, at least, races the strength of which are open to question.
As an aside, please don’t tell me that Oxbow’s game effort Saturday vindicates the form of the Risen Star, in which he finished fourth. He is only one horse. Let’s see what the other six horses who were less than four lengths behind 135-1 and now sidelined Risen Star winner Ive Struck a Nerve do in their next starts before issuing proclamations that the Risen Star was better than the mediocre race it looked like it was.
Part of the reason why, for me, this Rebel failed to hit it out of the park as a meaningful penultimate Kentucky Derby prep is because it was won by Will Take Charge. In his defense, Will Take Charge was making only his seventh career start Saturday, so he still has lots of room to improve. And Will Take Charge improved Saturday, running his best race yet and earning a career-best Beyer of 95, which topped his previous best by eight points. However, there were good reasons why Will Take Charge went off at 28-1 in the Rebel, specifically very spotty prior form, and a previous claim to that fame was a win in the Smarty Jones over modest opposition.
One other reason why this Rebel left me wanting is I think it should have been a faster race than it was. As noted, the pace was lively, so the table was set for a strong final time. But the final time wasn’t strong, and I feel that says something about the horses who were in this race.
Quality, of course, is in the eye of the beholder. But right now, for me, the big Florida Triple Crown preps we’ve seen so far – chronologically the Holy Bull, the Fountain of Youth, and the Tampa Bay Derby – are of distinctly higher quality than the ones we’ve seen elsewhere. So far.
www.drf.com/blogs/notes-rebel-bright-thought-and-other-stuff
03/17/2013 1:07PM
Notes on the Rebel,
By Mike Watchmaker
Oxbow ran well in narrow defeat in the Rebel. He was close to a lively pace, and the early pace player who was closest to Oxbow at the end, 6-5 favorite Super Ninety Nine, finished a large 8 1-4 lengths behind him in fifth. Den’s Legacy also ran well finishing third in the Rebel, beaten two lengths for it all. Den’s Legacy was on the rail every step of the way, but the rail is often not the place to be at Oaklawn, and that appeared to be the case again Saturday.
That said, the initial impression is the Rebel will join a list of suspect races for this particular 3-year-old crop. Going back to last fall, the Remsen, the Kentucky Jockey Club, the San Vicente, and the Risen Star are, for starters and for the moment, at least, races the strength of which are open to question.
As an aside, please don’t tell me that Oxbow’s game effort Saturday vindicates the form of the Risen Star, in which he finished fourth. He is only one horse. Let’s see what the other six horses who were less than four lengths behind 135-1 and now sidelined Risen Star winner Ive Struck a Nerve do in their next starts before issuing proclamations that the Risen Star was better than the mediocre race it looked like it was.
Part of the reason why, for me, this Rebel failed to hit it out of the park as a meaningful penultimate Kentucky Derby prep is because it was won by Will Take Charge. In his defense, Will Take Charge was making only his seventh career start Saturday, so he still has lots of room to improve. And Will Take Charge improved Saturday, running his best race yet and earning a career-best Beyer of 95, which topped his previous best by eight points. However, there were good reasons why Will Take Charge went off at 28-1 in the Rebel, specifically very spotty prior form, and a previous claim to that fame was a win in the Smarty Jones over modest opposition.
One other reason why this Rebel left me wanting is I think it should have been a faster race than it was. As noted, the pace was lively, so the table was set for a strong final time. But the final time wasn’t strong, and I feel that says something about the horses who were in this race.
Quality, of course, is in the eye of the beholder. But right now, for me, the big Florida Triple Crown preps we’ve seen so far – chronologically the Holy Bull, the Fountain of Youth, and the Tampa Bay Derby – are of distinctly higher quality than the ones we’ve seen elsewhere. So far.
www.drf.com/blogs/notes-rebel-bright-thought-and-other-stuff