Early Look at Derby
Jan 22, 2016 17:53:12 GMT -5
Post by cait on Jan 22, 2016 17:53:12 GMT -5
it's a long road to travel - especially now as we breed for speed and these babies have toothpick legs - at this point, don't have a pick - does anyone?
First Steps
By Johnny D
Xpressbet
Don’t look now, but the Kentucky Derby is about 100 days away. How is that even possible? We haven’t crowned the Super Bowl champ and we’re talking Kentucky Derby? For that matter, we don’t even know which teams will be playing in the big game and we’re humming My Old Kentucky Home?
The road to the Kentucky Derby officially begins at different points for assorted racing fans. Some believe it starts when horses are 2-year-olds and can earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points in selected races. Others maintain that the Louisville journey doesn’t really commence until horses collectively extinguish birthday candles as 3-year-olds.
Yours truly resides in the latter camp. What happens at two is important, but, historically, the road to the Kentucky Derby is littered with talented juveniles who failed to replicate superior juvenile form at three. If racing isn’t a ‘what-have-you-done-for-me-lately’ sport, I don’t know what is. An unbeaten runner at two that fails to match maturity levels of contemporaries at three is soon forgotten—no matter how many Kentucky Derby qualifying points he has in his saddle pad.
So far in 2016 there have been four races with Kentucky Derby Points on a 10-4-2-1 basis. Those races have been the Jerome (Jan. 2) at Aqueduct, Sham (Jan. 9) at Santa Anita, Lecomte (Jan. 16) at Fair Grounds and Smarty Jones (Jan. 18) at Oaklawn Park. Traditionally, trainers who believe they have sophomores with serious Kentucky Derby talent will not compete in these early season skirmishes. Why? Because the road to the Louisville winner’s circle is long and winding enough without taking a first step before it’s absolutely necessary. Trainers with legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders avoid unnecessary confrontations like NFL coaches do with veterans in pre-season games.
Does that mean that a horse that wins the Lecomte or Sham can’t win the Kentucky Derby? Absolutely not. For them the journey becomes longer and tougher. Mo Tom won the Lecomte convincingly Saturday. He’s got a solid 2-year-old resume, too, winning two of his first three starts, including the Street Sense at Churchill, site of the Kentucky Derby. Mo Tom also closed well over a sloppy Churchill surface in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club to finish less than two lengths behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit—a pair of highly-ranked three-year-olds.
So, what’s the problem? There really isn’t one except that keeping a horse in top shape January through May is challenging. It’s been done before; recently, too. California Chrome’s schedule was as demanding as could be and he was able to win in both Louisville and Baltimore.
However, there’s a delicate balance between too much and not enough Kentucky Derby preparation. The best trainers recognize each horse’s individual needs and plan accordingly. If you recall, when American Pharoah returned from the hoof injury that forced him to be scratched from the BC Juvenile, Bob Baffert was ‘up against it.’ The trainer knew he had to make the Rebel Stakes March 14 with the colt if they were to have any chance of being ready to go a mile and one-quarter May 7.
The next approximately 100 days will be precarious for owners and trainers with legitimate Kentucky Derby aspirations. Charges will need to hit marks precisely for them to continue to march down the road toward Louisville. From this point on any hiccups will be significant. And as sand in the hourglass diminishes, so does margin for error.
A quick look at Kentucky Derby contender lists produced by enlightened experts—Bloodhorse.com’s Steve Haskin and Jeffsiegelracing.com’s Jeff Siegel—illustrates just how varied training timetables and race schedules for top 3-year-old runners can be.
Unbeaten, untied and un-scored upon Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Nyquist ought to be ranked first on everyone’s Derby list, right? At least until someone KO’s him. Not so fast backstretch breath. Siegel has him second and Haskin places him fourth! What? That’s okay, Nyquist’s camp is used to getting no respect. Despite winning four out of four, including the Grade 1 FrontRunner around two turns at Santa Anita, the colt still was dispatched at a juicy 4.70-to-one in the BC Juvenile. Consider him the Rodney Dangerfield of this year’s soph class.
Nyquist last raced Oct. 31 at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile and he’s headed for a start in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Feb. 15. So far he’s worked five times at Santa Anita, from three to six furlongs and twice at five furlongs. If all goes well, after the San Vicente he will ship to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby because as a graduate of the 2015 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-olds in training sale he’s eligible for a $1 million bonus if he wins that race. Owner J. Paul Reddam is in the unique position of not really needing the money and of already having won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. Still, a million bucks is a million bucks and it will be interesting to see if trainer Doug O’Neill leans on Nyquist a tad earlier than usual in order to collect the bonus bread.
Siegel and Haskin both have Mohaymen ranked in the top five—Siegel ranks him first and Haskin has him third. He is unbeaten in three starts and last raced November 28 in the Remsen at Aqueduct. Since December 31, he has had three drills at the Palm Meadows Training Center, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is pointing him toward the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Jan. 30.
Brody’s Cause is another 3-year-old who resides in Siegel and Haskin’s top five—the former has him fifth and the latter second. Third in his last start, the BC Juvenile, Brody’s Cause is a confirmed late-running son of Giant’s Causeway who figures to have no problem going a mile and one-quarter. He broke his maiden at Churchill, so there’s another box ticked. Trainer Dale Romans appears to be taking his time with this $350,000 yearling purchase; since Breeders’ Cup he has worked him just once Jan. 18.
Similarities between Siegel and Haskin top five lists end there. The former rounds out his Derby favorites list with Airoforce and Mor Spirit. The latter presents Greenpointcrusader and Exaggerator as top five colts.
Airoforce has proven versatile in three wins—a maiden turf sprint at Kentucky Downs, a yielding turf route Grade 3 stakes at Keeneland, and a mile and one-sixteenth Grade 2 sloppy main track score at Churchill. He’s a mere neck away from being unbeaten in four starts, that narrow coming in the BC Juvenile Turf. Given the entire month of December off by trainer Mark Casse, Airoforce worked four furlongs at Palm Meadows Training Center Jan. 11.
Mor Spirit, trained by Bob Baffert, doesn’t have a 2-year-old resume that matches some of his contemporaries on this list, but he’s a serious Derby threat. Siegel ranks him fourth and Haskell has him seventh. What’s interesting about him is that he hasn’t really had much time off. He’s raced at least once in each month September through December. Nov. 28 he shipped to Churchill Downs and negotiated a sloppy track to be second to Airoforce in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Mor Spirit then returned to his SoCal base and added the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity to his collection Dec. 18. He’s been in steady training since at Santa Anita, working almost every seven days.
Exaggerator, fifth-best for Haskin and twice as far down the list for Siegel, won the Delta Downs Jackpot Nov. 21 last out and probably will return to the races in the Feb. 15 San Vicente at Santa Anita against Nyquist and others. Exaggerator completed an unusual parlay last summer when he broke his maiden at Del Mar and then went cross-country to win the Saratoga Special. He was nailed by Brody’s Cause in the final strides of the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and then ran evenly when fourth in the BC Juvenile. Since Jan. 1 he’s had three works from four to six furlongs spaced six to seven days apart.
Greenpointcrusader is at the top of Haskin’s early Derby contender list and the writer’s almost apologetic about ranking this colt that high. Relax, Stevie, it’s not like Greenpointcrusader hasn’t accomplished anything. Siegel has him rated sixth and, after all, he is the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner!
Greenpointcrusader has been relatively busy this winter at the Palm Meadows Training Center with five workouts for trainer Dominick Schettino beginning Dec. 21 and spaced about seven days apart.
That’s an early look at some of this season’s top 3-year-old Derby contenders and their first steps on the road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby. It’s a very long and arduous journey, crammed into the next 100 days.
First Steps
By Johnny D
Xpressbet
Don’t look now, but the Kentucky Derby is about 100 days away. How is that even possible? We haven’t crowned the Super Bowl champ and we’re talking Kentucky Derby? For that matter, we don’t even know which teams will be playing in the big game and we’re humming My Old Kentucky Home?
The road to the Kentucky Derby officially begins at different points for assorted racing fans. Some believe it starts when horses are 2-year-olds and can earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points in selected races. Others maintain that the Louisville journey doesn’t really commence until horses collectively extinguish birthday candles as 3-year-olds.
Yours truly resides in the latter camp. What happens at two is important, but, historically, the road to the Kentucky Derby is littered with talented juveniles who failed to replicate superior juvenile form at three. If racing isn’t a ‘what-have-you-done-for-me-lately’ sport, I don’t know what is. An unbeaten runner at two that fails to match maturity levels of contemporaries at three is soon forgotten—no matter how many Kentucky Derby qualifying points he has in his saddle pad.
So far in 2016 there have been four races with Kentucky Derby Points on a 10-4-2-1 basis. Those races have been the Jerome (Jan. 2) at Aqueduct, Sham (Jan. 9) at Santa Anita, Lecomte (Jan. 16) at Fair Grounds and Smarty Jones (Jan. 18) at Oaklawn Park. Traditionally, trainers who believe they have sophomores with serious Kentucky Derby talent will not compete in these early season skirmishes. Why? Because the road to the Louisville winner’s circle is long and winding enough without taking a first step before it’s absolutely necessary. Trainers with legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders avoid unnecessary confrontations like NFL coaches do with veterans in pre-season games.
Does that mean that a horse that wins the Lecomte or Sham can’t win the Kentucky Derby? Absolutely not. For them the journey becomes longer and tougher. Mo Tom won the Lecomte convincingly Saturday. He’s got a solid 2-year-old resume, too, winning two of his first three starts, including the Street Sense at Churchill, site of the Kentucky Derby. Mo Tom also closed well over a sloppy Churchill surface in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club to finish less than two lengths behind Airoforce and Mor Spirit—a pair of highly-ranked three-year-olds.
So, what’s the problem? There really isn’t one except that keeping a horse in top shape January through May is challenging. It’s been done before; recently, too. California Chrome’s schedule was as demanding as could be and he was able to win in both Louisville and Baltimore.
However, there’s a delicate balance between too much and not enough Kentucky Derby preparation. The best trainers recognize each horse’s individual needs and plan accordingly. If you recall, when American Pharoah returned from the hoof injury that forced him to be scratched from the BC Juvenile, Bob Baffert was ‘up against it.’ The trainer knew he had to make the Rebel Stakes March 14 with the colt if they were to have any chance of being ready to go a mile and one-quarter May 7.
The next approximately 100 days will be precarious for owners and trainers with legitimate Kentucky Derby aspirations. Charges will need to hit marks precisely for them to continue to march down the road toward Louisville. From this point on any hiccups will be significant. And as sand in the hourglass diminishes, so does margin for error.
A quick look at Kentucky Derby contender lists produced by enlightened experts—Bloodhorse.com’s Steve Haskin and Jeffsiegelracing.com’s Jeff Siegel—illustrates just how varied training timetables and race schedules for top 3-year-old runners can be.
Unbeaten, untied and un-scored upon Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Nyquist ought to be ranked first on everyone’s Derby list, right? At least until someone KO’s him. Not so fast backstretch breath. Siegel has him second and Haskin places him fourth! What? That’s okay, Nyquist’s camp is used to getting no respect. Despite winning four out of four, including the Grade 1 FrontRunner around two turns at Santa Anita, the colt still was dispatched at a juicy 4.70-to-one in the BC Juvenile. Consider him the Rodney Dangerfield of this year’s soph class.
Nyquist last raced Oct. 31 at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile and he’s headed for a start in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Feb. 15. So far he’s worked five times at Santa Anita, from three to six furlongs and twice at five furlongs. If all goes well, after the San Vicente he will ship to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby because as a graduate of the 2015 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-olds in training sale he’s eligible for a $1 million bonus if he wins that race. Owner J. Paul Reddam is in the unique position of not really needing the money and of already having won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. Still, a million bucks is a million bucks and it will be interesting to see if trainer Doug O’Neill leans on Nyquist a tad earlier than usual in order to collect the bonus bread.
Siegel and Haskin both have Mohaymen ranked in the top five—Siegel ranks him first and Haskin has him third. He is unbeaten in three starts and last raced November 28 in the Remsen at Aqueduct. Since December 31, he has had three drills at the Palm Meadows Training Center, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is pointing him toward the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Jan. 30.
Brody’s Cause is another 3-year-old who resides in Siegel and Haskin’s top five—the former has him fifth and the latter second. Third in his last start, the BC Juvenile, Brody’s Cause is a confirmed late-running son of Giant’s Causeway who figures to have no problem going a mile and one-quarter. He broke his maiden at Churchill, so there’s another box ticked. Trainer Dale Romans appears to be taking his time with this $350,000 yearling purchase; since Breeders’ Cup he has worked him just once Jan. 18.
Similarities between Siegel and Haskin top five lists end there. The former rounds out his Derby favorites list with Airoforce and Mor Spirit. The latter presents Greenpointcrusader and Exaggerator as top five colts.
Airoforce has proven versatile in three wins—a maiden turf sprint at Kentucky Downs, a yielding turf route Grade 3 stakes at Keeneland, and a mile and one-sixteenth Grade 2 sloppy main track score at Churchill. He’s a mere neck away from being unbeaten in four starts, that narrow coming in the BC Juvenile Turf. Given the entire month of December off by trainer Mark Casse, Airoforce worked four furlongs at Palm Meadows Training Center Jan. 11.
Mor Spirit, trained by Bob Baffert, doesn’t have a 2-year-old resume that matches some of his contemporaries on this list, but he’s a serious Derby threat. Siegel ranks him fourth and Haskell has him seventh. What’s interesting about him is that he hasn’t really had much time off. He’s raced at least once in each month September through December. Nov. 28 he shipped to Churchill Downs and negotiated a sloppy track to be second to Airoforce in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Mor Spirit then returned to his SoCal base and added the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity to his collection Dec. 18. He’s been in steady training since at Santa Anita, working almost every seven days.
Exaggerator, fifth-best for Haskin and twice as far down the list for Siegel, won the Delta Downs Jackpot Nov. 21 last out and probably will return to the races in the Feb. 15 San Vicente at Santa Anita against Nyquist and others. Exaggerator completed an unusual parlay last summer when he broke his maiden at Del Mar and then went cross-country to win the Saratoga Special. He was nailed by Brody’s Cause in the final strides of the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and then ran evenly when fourth in the BC Juvenile. Since Jan. 1 he’s had three works from four to six furlongs spaced six to seven days apart.
Greenpointcrusader is at the top of Haskin’s early Derby contender list and the writer’s almost apologetic about ranking this colt that high. Relax, Stevie, it’s not like Greenpointcrusader hasn’t accomplished anything. Siegel has him rated sixth and, after all, he is the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner!
Greenpointcrusader has been relatively busy this winter at the Palm Meadows Training Center with five workouts for trainer Dominick Schettino beginning Dec. 21 and spaced about seven days apart.
That’s an early look at some of this season’s top 3-year-old Derby contenders and their first steps on the road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby. It’s a very long and arduous journey, crammed into the next 100 days.
