Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2015 18:56:28 GMT -5
8th race.
wide open. only two throwouts, that being the 3 and 7. i dont really like the 2 and 5 but they do have a chance. same with the 9 but he should like the distance and will at least be a price. 5 should make an easy lead but even if he does i dont think they can carry him this far against this field.
that leaves 1,4, and 6 as my top three and top tier horses. the 1 would have been even money in here if not for her last race which looks bad on paper. it was against better back east though and she could/ should bounce back here. still taking short prices off of regressing form is the way you go broke. tread lightly.
the 4 is a beast in the lane at this track when he is at the top of his game. his numbers arent quite as good as the 1 but if he gets any pace to run at (which may not happen) i think he will be tough.
the 6 is the value play in here. he is trouble prone though and hasnt been running against quite this level. also even though he closes well, im not sure if he really wants this distance. he has a shot though and the price will be right.
i will play 1,4,6 on main tickets and use 2,5,9 on small tickets. possibly pressing the 4.
9th race.
if beholder wins this race you will not hear from me again on this site. she has zero chance at this distance from that post against these males. ZERO!!.
i will use 3,5,7 on main tickets and 8,10 on small tickets. i will bet bayern to win at 4-1 or higher as i know regardless of his form, if he runs his best race, he wins. period.
10th race.
the 8 is very close to a single on all tickets. was tons the best last time, showed he could close as well as show speed, has never run a bad rqace and just lloks tough. his numbers arent as good as i would like for a single, but even at the short price he will be tough. he should sit right off the 5 and draw off in the lane.
i will use 5,7,and 9 on small tickets. thats it.
11th race.
horrible morning line here. whoever mad the 2 horse 12/1 is on monkey crack. she will open at under 7/2 and probably more like 2/1. she has by far the best numbers when he runs his best, is in good form, much the best last time, and has a trainer who has pulled this move many times coming in from new mexico. hes no cinch, but he is the horse to beat.
i like 2 and 7 over 4,8,10. will use 2 and 7 on all tickets and 4,8,10 on small tickets.