Handicapping The All-Stakes Arlington Million Pick 4
Aug 15, 2015 1:05:44 GMT -5
Post by Jon on Aug 15, 2015 1:05:44 GMT -5
Don't play Arlington but will look at the Million. Who do you like for the Million?
Handicapping The All-Stakes Arlington Million Pick 4
Dan Keppler
Paulick Report
Arlington Million Day is upon us, and Saturday’s Festival card looks terrific from a betting standpoint, including the Twinspires.com all graded stakes $150,000 guaranteed Pick 4.
The Pick 4 begins with the G3 American St. Leger Stakes in race 7 and is followed by a trio of Grade 1 events – the Secretariat Stakes, the Beverly D. and the Arlington Million.
Here is Paulick Report handicapper Dean Keppler’s take on the sequence.
Race #7: 1-11/16 Miles (Turf) G3 American St. Leger Stakes Purse $350,000 (Post Time 3:42 p.m. CT)
With the likely scratch of THE PIZZA MAN who is double entered in the Arlington Million, this first start of the all-stakes Pick 4 becomes extremely wide open. 3-LUCKY SPEED is likely to move forward making his second start over American soil after finishing fourth in a tight photo at Woodbine in the G2 Nijinsky. This 5-year-old is a Group 1 winner in Germany and his last start was his first in 10 months. He goes 2nd time Lasix.
9-CALVADOS was stuck behind a pedestrian pace along the inside and then forced to steady when blocked in deep stretch in the G3 Stars and Stripes. The 7-year-old gelding galloped out past the winner, but is 0-for-8 since shipping to America. 2-ROMAN APPROVAL is the likely pacesetter but is unproven at today’s extended distance. He’s reunited with Rosario,who has taken the colt off the pace when piloting him at Gulfstream and Belmont. He’ll likely be gunned here, however.
4-CRUCERO was a game winner at long odds winning the San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita for the Desormeaux brothers. He’s been freshened since that effort. 7-HYPER is 10- for-26 lifetime for trainer Chad Brown but is winless since September 2013. 6-THE PIZZA MAN won this race last year and would be a serious threat to repeat but is likely shooting for the Arlington Million instead.
Selections: 3-9-2-4
Race #8: 1-1/4 Miles (Turf) GI Secretariat Purse $450,000 (Post Time 4:17 p.m. CT)
This is a short but contentious group of 3-year-olds assembled for the G1 Secretariat. 2- FORCE THE PASS is on the improve having won two in a row; moves inside, and owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (94) coming out of his victory in the G1 Belmont Derby on July 4. This super consistent colt has never been worse than 1st or 2nd in all 6 career starts for top grass conditioner Alan Goldberg. He deserves to be the morning line favorite but is no shoo-in.
6-HIGHLAND REEL adds Lasix and makes his first start stateside after battling G1 types in France and Ireland. The colt is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who won this race last year with the colt Adelaide and in 2011 with Treasure Beach. 7-WAR DISPATCH is a dangerous European shipper making his second start off the bench for trainer Jean-Claude Rouget. He’s finished close behind Highland Reel. 3-GOLDSTREAM ships in from Italy undefeated going for his sixth straight win for trainer Andreas Wohler ,who is 1 for 11 on American soil with his lone win coming in a maiden event at Woodbine in 2012.
Selections: 2-6-7
Race #9: 1-3/16 Miles (Turf) GI Beverly D Stakes Purse $700,000 (Post Time 5:05 p.m. CT)
The European gals seem to hold the advantage in this year’s running of the Beverly D. 8- EURO CHARLINE won this race last year at nearly 11-1 and is a deserving favorite to repeat coming off a sharp runner-up prep effort in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket for trainer Marco Botti. This conditioner is 3 for 6 (50%) in straight stakes races at Arlington with a $5.40 ROI. The 4-year-old filly was flattered in her last effort when finishing a length behind Amazing Maria, who came back to win a G1 at Deauville. She sheds 10 pounds today and picks up top American grass rider Jose Lezcano.
10-SECRET GESTURE has been freshened for this and was only beaten two lengths in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. This 5-year-old mare has run extremely well off layoffs before. 9-WEDDING VOW is wheeled back off less than two weeks rest for world-class trainer Aidan O’Brien who is 3 for 8 (38%) in Arlington Park stakes events over the years, but only 3 for 30 with horses returning in 8 to 30 days. This 3-year-old filly by Galileo is coming off a good second in the G1 Nassau Stakes. 3-STEPHANIE”S KITTEN might be the best hope for the American runners. This multiple (G1) winner has been off form in her last pair for trainer Chad Brown, but has run well over this turf course in the past including finishing second in this event last year. She could rebound here. 6-CARLA BIANCA is a (G3) winner in Ireland and has won 5 of 11 career starts. Trainer Dermot Weld is 0 for 12 in the states, however.
Selections: 8-10-9-3
Race #10: 1-1/4 Miles (Turf) GI Arlington Million Stakes (Post Time 5:48 p.m. CT)
Chad Brown’s Big Blue Kitten has been installed as the tepid 3-1 morning line favorite for the 33rd running of the G1 Arlington Million but has equal chance of finding the winner’s circle with his other entrant 2-SLUMBER. Slumber also benefited from the “rabbit” antics set by Brown’s third entrant 9-Shining Copper (previously trained by Michael Maker) in the G1 United Nations, and finished second behind ML favorite 4-BIG BLUE KITTEN who got the jump on him at Monmouth. He’s been a much-improved horse with the addition of blinkers, and did have some traffic trouble when forced to steady in the UN. Both 7-year-olds draw well in here and have reversed decisions in last two back-to-back Grade 1 events. We’ll give the slight edge to 2-SLUMBER.
Our top selection, however, is 10- TRIPLE THREAT who simply exploded to win his American unveiling in the G2 Monmouth for trainer Bill Mott, flying home in sub-12 seconds once taken off the rail and switched to the outside by Jose Lezcano. This 5-year-old was a graded stakes winner in France, and was coming off an extended layoff when scoring powerfully in his last. He’s had time to regroup, has trained very well at Saratoga, and is likely to move forward off that sharp effort with 2nd time Lasix.
Of the European contingent, we’ll give the John Gosden-trained runner 11-MAVERICK WAVE a chance for a barn that finished 1st at 11-1 with Debussy and 3rd with Tazeez in this event in 2010. Gosden also finished third in 2012 with the colt Colombian. MAVERICK WAVE adds Lasix today and has won 6 of 13 career starts for this top conditioner. A potential longshot is horse for course 7-THE PIZZA MAN who is 9 for 12 over the Arlington turf. He’s won two in row and makes his 3rd start off the bench for trainer Roger Brueggemann, who is 4 for 11 (36%) with this layoff angle with Geroux riding.
Selections: 10-2-4-11
50-CENT PICK 4 PLAY: 2,3,4,7,9 WITH 2,6,7 WITH 8 WITH 2,4,7,10,11 = $37.50
Handicapping The All-Stakes Arlington Million Pick 4
Dan Keppler
Paulick Report
Arlington Million Day is upon us, and Saturday’s Festival card looks terrific from a betting standpoint, including the Twinspires.com all graded stakes $150,000 guaranteed Pick 4.
The Pick 4 begins with the G3 American St. Leger Stakes in race 7 and is followed by a trio of Grade 1 events – the Secretariat Stakes, the Beverly D. and the Arlington Million.
Here is Paulick Report handicapper Dean Keppler’s take on the sequence.
Race #7: 1-11/16 Miles (Turf) G3 American St. Leger Stakes Purse $350,000 (Post Time 3:42 p.m. CT)
With the likely scratch of THE PIZZA MAN who is double entered in the Arlington Million, this first start of the all-stakes Pick 4 becomes extremely wide open. 3-LUCKY SPEED is likely to move forward making his second start over American soil after finishing fourth in a tight photo at Woodbine in the G2 Nijinsky. This 5-year-old is a Group 1 winner in Germany and his last start was his first in 10 months. He goes 2nd time Lasix.
9-CALVADOS was stuck behind a pedestrian pace along the inside and then forced to steady when blocked in deep stretch in the G3 Stars and Stripes. The 7-year-old gelding galloped out past the winner, but is 0-for-8 since shipping to America. 2-ROMAN APPROVAL is the likely pacesetter but is unproven at today’s extended distance. He’s reunited with Rosario,who has taken the colt off the pace when piloting him at Gulfstream and Belmont. He’ll likely be gunned here, however.
4-CRUCERO was a game winner at long odds winning the San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita for the Desormeaux brothers. He’s been freshened since that effort. 7-HYPER is 10- for-26 lifetime for trainer Chad Brown but is winless since September 2013. 6-THE PIZZA MAN won this race last year and would be a serious threat to repeat but is likely shooting for the Arlington Million instead.
Selections: 3-9-2-4
Race #8: 1-1/4 Miles (Turf) GI Secretariat Purse $450,000 (Post Time 4:17 p.m. CT)
This is a short but contentious group of 3-year-olds assembled for the G1 Secretariat. 2- FORCE THE PASS is on the improve having won two in a row; moves inside, and owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (94) coming out of his victory in the G1 Belmont Derby on July 4. This super consistent colt has never been worse than 1st or 2nd in all 6 career starts for top grass conditioner Alan Goldberg. He deserves to be the morning line favorite but is no shoo-in.
6-HIGHLAND REEL adds Lasix and makes his first start stateside after battling G1 types in France and Ireland. The colt is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who won this race last year with the colt Adelaide and in 2011 with Treasure Beach. 7-WAR DISPATCH is a dangerous European shipper making his second start off the bench for trainer Jean-Claude Rouget. He’s finished close behind Highland Reel. 3-GOLDSTREAM ships in from Italy undefeated going for his sixth straight win for trainer Andreas Wohler ,who is 1 for 11 on American soil with his lone win coming in a maiden event at Woodbine in 2012.
Selections: 2-6-7
Race #9: 1-3/16 Miles (Turf) GI Beverly D Stakes Purse $700,000 (Post Time 5:05 p.m. CT)
The European gals seem to hold the advantage in this year’s running of the Beverly D. 8- EURO CHARLINE won this race last year at nearly 11-1 and is a deserving favorite to repeat coming off a sharp runner-up prep effort in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket for trainer Marco Botti. This conditioner is 3 for 6 (50%) in straight stakes races at Arlington with a $5.40 ROI. The 4-year-old filly was flattered in her last effort when finishing a length behind Amazing Maria, who came back to win a G1 at Deauville. She sheds 10 pounds today and picks up top American grass rider Jose Lezcano.
10-SECRET GESTURE has been freshened for this and was only beaten two lengths in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. This 5-year-old mare has run extremely well off layoffs before. 9-WEDDING VOW is wheeled back off less than two weeks rest for world-class trainer Aidan O’Brien who is 3 for 8 (38%) in Arlington Park stakes events over the years, but only 3 for 30 with horses returning in 8 to 30 days. This 3-year-old filly by Galileo is coming off a good second in the G1 Nassau Stakes. 3-STEPHANIE”S KITTEN might be the best hope for the American runners. This multiple (G1) winner has been off form in her last pair for trainer Chad Brown, but has run well over this turf course in the past including finishing second in this event last year. She could rebound here. 6-CARLA BIANCA is a (G3) winner in Ireland and has won 5 of 11 career starts. Trainer Dermot Weld is 0 for 12 in the states, however.
Selections: 8-10-9-3
Race #10: 1-1/4 Miles (Turf) GI Arlington Million Stakes (Post Time 5:48 p.m. CT)
Chad Brown’s Big Blue Kitten has been installed as the tepid 3-1 morning line favorite for the 33rd running of the G1 Arlington Million but has equal chance of finding the winner’s circle with his other entrant 2-SLUMBER. Slumber also benefited from the “rabbit” antics set by Brown’s third entrant 9-Shining Copper (previously trained by Michael Maker) in the G1 United Nations, and finished second behind ML favorite 4-BIG BLUE KITTEN who got the jump on him at Monmouth. He’s been a much-improved horse with the addition of blinkers, and did have some traffic trouble when forced to steady in the UN. Both 7-year-olds draw well in here and have reversed decisions in last two back-to-back Grade 1 events. We’ll give the slight edge to 2-SLUMBER.
Our top selection, however, is 10- TRIPLE THREAT who simply exploded to win his American unveiling in the G2 Monmouth for trainer Bill Mott, flying home in sub-12 seconds once taken off the rail and switched to the outside by Jose Lezcano. This 5-year-old was a graded stakes winner in France, and was coming off an extended layoff when scoring powerfully in his last. He’s had time to regroup, has trained very well at Saratoga, and is likely to move forward off that sharp effort with 2nd time Lasix.
Of the European contingent, we’ll give the John Gosden-trained runner 11-MAVERICK WAVE a chance for a barn that finished 1st at 11-1 with Debussy and 3rd with Tazeez in this event in 2010. Gosden also finished third in 2012 with the colt Colombian. MAVERICK WAVE adds Lasix today and has won 6 of 13 career starts for this top conditioner. A potential longshot is horse for course 7-THE PIZZA MAN who is 9 for 12 over the Arlington turf. He’s won two in row and makes his 3rd start off the bench for trainer Roger Brueggemann, who is 4 for 11 (36%) with this layoff angle with Geroux riding.
Selections: 10-2-4-11
50-CENT PICK 4 PLAY: 2,3,4,7,9 WITH 2,6,7 WITH 8 WITH 2,4,7,10,11 = $37.50
