Belmont Bob's Picks for Belmont Derby Day $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Jun 5, 2015 21:15:39 GMT -5
Post by Nostradamus on Jun 5, 2015 21:15:39 GMT -5
Race 1) #1 Stanford
This is surely the class and speed of the race running against much better horses (Materiality, International Star), although sure he can be beat - but when you are picking you just have to pick the winner and best horse in the race. lol.
Race 2) #2 Wisecracker
First two races were pretty good in class company but the last race won in 95 speed rating was a breakout race that established him as a very good horse - only has to beat Tiz Shea D but I think he outclasses this horse a little.
Race 3) #3 Competitive Edge
Clear class and speed winning 4 in a row - could get beat but I would not bet against it. Another one where you just have to pick the winner and not try to beat him.
Race 4) #2 Bellarmine
This horse has always been competitive and has shown up in a lot of key races in the past. Comes out of one of the biggest key races on the dirt that had a lot of very good horses. Now tries the turf for the 2nd time. In first try on the turf was just off pace by one length all the way around at 1 1/8 against Graded winner Hardest Core. This horse is worth a shot at 30-1 morning line. I think he could be a turf sprinter.
Race 5) Princess Violet
OK you have to beat Untapable. However Princess Violet was in the lead all the way around against Untapable last year in the Mother Goose before fading to 2nd by 9 lengths in the end. Now has had more time to mature while Untapable has had more time to get older. Worth a bet against the chalk. Princess Violet I believe is one of the top 5 female horses in the country or better.
Race 6) #9 Neck 'n Neck
Ran a real even tight shorter race in a very good key race in last that Protonico won which is a very good sign for stretch out to longer distance. In fact got beat in the last two by Protonico. #3 Call me George ran up the track in that same Protonico race after beating Moreno and Albano in the NO Handicap. Honor Code in the Metro Handicap ran in the same Protonico race and could not run a lick either after coming off of beating monster horse Private Zone at GP who is also entered in the Met Mile.
Race 7) #6 Curalina
Every race that his horse has run in has proven to be a key race. I have seen many many horses that came out of races with Curlina in the top three finishers turn into very good horses. This is a good horse - make no mistake about that.
Race 8) #3 Discreet Marq
This horse looks like overall class as in lifetime has been running against classier horses than the rest and looks to be coming back to that form off of last win.
Race 9) #8 Pants on Fire
This horse ran a very even race at 7F shorter distance against monster Private Zone. This is a tough race but I think off of that tight shorter race stretching out to 1 mile now that Pants on Fire has a good shot for the upset.
Race 10) #10 General a Rod
This horse is definitely the best horse flesh by far in the race. In last race ran just off the pace against the best dirt horses in the country (Moreno, Shared Belief, etc.) - as a 3yo was running against the best and was likely in the top 10 3yo's. Looks like he has come back just as good as he was as a 2yo and 3yo. The question is can he run on the turf. His breeding appears to say yes and at a nice price.
Race 11) #3 Madefromlucky
Looks like a 3 horse race between AP, Madeforlucky and Materiality. I am going for Madeforlucky. I was looking at Materiality but really the fractions of all Materiality's races were not that impressive and the only really good horse he beat was Upstart. Madeforlucky ran competitively against AP twice at OP and had a breakout race in the Peter Pan at Belmont Park in last so I have to give him the nod to beat AP at the stretch out.
Race 12) #10 Ocala Jim
There have been so many horses coming out of an Ocala Jim race that have won over the past few months that I cannot count them on both of my hands. Load up on this key race horse. This is third race off layoff and comes out of very even tight 1 mile run in 1:33 at Belmont - yes!
This is surely the class and speed of the race running against much better horses (Materiality, International Star), although sure he can be beat - but when you are picking you just have to pick the winner and best horse in the race. lol.
Race 2) #2 Wisecracker
First two races were pretty good in class company but the last race won in 95 speed rating was a breakout race that established him as a very good horse - only has to beat Tiz Shea D but I think he outclasses this horse a little.
Race 3) #3 Competitive Edge
Clear class and speed winning 4 in a row - could get beat but I would not bet against it. Another one where you just have to pick the winner and not try to beat him.
Race 4) #2 Bellarmine
This horse has always been competitive and has shown up in a lot of key races in the past. Comes out of one of the biggest key races on the dirt that had a lot of very good horses. Now tries the turf for the 2nd time. In first try on the turf was just off pace by one length all the way around at 1 1/8 against Graded winner Hardest Core. This horse is worth a shot at 30-1 morning line. I think he could be a turf sprinter.
Race 5) Princess Violet
OK you have to beat Untapable. However Princess Violet was in the lead all the way around against Untapable last year in the Mother Goose before fading to 2nd by 9 lengths in the end. Now has had more time to mature while Untapable has had more time to get older. Worth a bet against the chalk. Princess Violet I believe is one of the top 5 female horses in the country or better.
Race 6) #9 Neck 'n Neck
Ran a real even tight shorter race in a very good key race in last that Protonico won which is a very good sign for stretch out to longer distance. In fact got beat in the last two by Protonico. #3 Call me George ran up the track in that same Protonico race after beating Moreno and Albano in the NO Handicap. Honor Code in the Metro Handicap ran in the same Protonico race and could not run a lick either after coming off of beating monster horse Private Zone at GP who is also entered in the Met Mile.
Race 7) #6 Curalina
Every race that his horse has run in has proven to be a key race. I have seen many many horses that came out of races with Curlina in the top three finishers turn into very good horses. This is a good horse - make no mistake about that.
Race 8) #3 Discreet Marq
This horse looks like overall class as in lifetime has been running against classier horses than the rest and looks to be coming back to that form off of last win.
Race 9) #8 Pants on Fire
This horse ran a very even race at 7F shorter distance against monster Private Zone. This is a tough race but I think off of that tight shorter race stretching out to 1 mile now that Pants on Fire has a good shot for the upset.
Race 10) #10 General a Rod
This horse is definitely the best horse flesh by far in the race. In last race ran just off the pace against the best dirt horses in the country (Moreno, Shared Belief, etc.) - as a 3yo was running against the best and was likely in the top 10 3yo's. Looks like he has come back just as good as he was as a 2yo and 3yo. The question is can he run on the turf. His breeding appears to say yes and at a nice price.
Race 11) #3 Madefromlucky
Looks like a 3 horse race between AP, Madeforlucky and Materiality. I am going for Madeforlucky. I was looking at Materiality but really the fractions of all Materiality's races were not that impressive and the only really good horse he beat was Upstart. Madeforlucky ran competitively against AP twice at OP and had a breakout race in the Peter Pan at Belmont Park in last so I have to give him the nod to beat AP at the stretch out.
Race 12) #10 Ocala Jim
There have been so many horses coming out of an Ocala Jim race that have won over the past few months that I cannot count them on both of my hands. Load up on this key race horse. This is third race off layoff and comes out of very even tight 1 mile run in 1:33 at Belmont - yes!