Slumps, Speed, And Perfection:Challenges Loom For Contenders
Apr 7, 2015 0:25:27 GMT -5
Post by Jon on Apr 7, 2015 0:25:27 GMT -5
Agree? It's too big of a field. PP plays an important role as do the jockeys. Too bad as the Derby should be about the horses only. I'm watching for Mubtaahij's workouts as he ran so well in dubai - on dirt. Sorry ladies - never liked Mr Z - if he even runs. Hell, if not for the points, Lukas would probably enter Brandi!This Sat will be interesting but I can't help but wonder if it will take much out of those running.
Slumps, Speed, And Perfection: Challenges Loom For Derby Contenders
by Ray Paulick
Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund and Florida Derby winner Materiality don’t know that only seven of 24 horses who came to the Kentucky Derby with perfect records left Churchill Downs still unbeaten. Likewise, Materiality and Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem have no idea that their seven-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has an abysmal record of 1-for-40 when it comes to the Run for the Roses on that first Saturday in May.
With only one major prep race left, Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, where 2014 champion American Pharoah will be heavily favored to improve his record to four wins from five starts, the prospective field is almost set for this 141st Kentucky Derby.
Bob Baffert, with Dortmund and American Pharoah, and Todd Pletcher, with Materiality and Carpe Diem, have the top four contenders on most pre-Derby lists. Either Dortmund, with his 6-for-6 record, or American Pharoah, depending on his upcoming Oaklawn Park performance, will be the likely favorite (right now, I would project Dortmund 7-2 and American Pharoah 4-1). Carpe Diem is the probable third betting choice (6-1) with Materiality (8-1) next in line, followed by Wood Memorial winner Frosted (12-1), with UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij, Sunland Park Derby winner Firing Line, Holy Bull winner Upstart and Louisiana Derby winner International Star (with the most Kentucky Derby points of anyone in the field) in the next flight at around 15-1. The rest, with final positions still to be sorted out, will be 20-1 or higher.
What’s most interesting to me about this field is that the top four contenders all have similar running styles: on or close to the lead. That could make for a mad dash in the mile and a quarter race – not out of the starting gate necessarily, or for the first half-mile, but in the run to the far turn and to the quarter pole.
Dortmund, American Pharoah, Materiality and Carpe Diem aren’t speed crazy, but none of them can be classified as stretch runners, either. So this year’s Derby could set up for someone who finishes strong and can pick up the pieces after an increasingly fast pace into and around that far turn at Churchill Downs.
It’s been 13 years since War Emblem took the Derby field wire to wire and it was 14 years before that when the filly Winning Colors did the same in 1988. Can one of those top four contenders take this field wire-to-wire? That seems doubtful to me, unless several jockeys fall asleep or expect someone else to show the way or contest the lead.
There have been just as many last-to-first winners as front-running victors since 1980: Gato Del Sol in 1982, Ferdinand in 1986, and Mine That Bird in 2009. Several others in that era – including Pleasant Colony, Sea Hero, Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Giacomo, Street Sense and Orb – came from deep in the field.
On the subject of perfection, three unbeaten horses won the Derby over a five-year period last decade (Smarty Jones, 2004; Barbaro, 2006; Big Brown, 2008), but Curlin in 2007, along with the Pletcher-trained Gemologist in 2012 and Verrazano in 2013 suffered their first defeats on Derby day. So did Baffert-trained Indian Charlie, in 1998, his four-race streak snapped by stablemate Real Quiet. In 1990, we had Mister Frisky, the Puerto Rican wonder horse who came to Churchill Downs off 13 wins in Puerto Rico and three at Santa Anita. In 1988, Private Terms was unbeaten in seven starts before finishing ninth in the Derby. There was Sensitive Prince in 1978 and Candy Spots in 1963 (both 6-for-6 before Derby losses) and the most famous of all, Native Dancer, who tasted defeat for the first time in the 1953 Derby after 11 consecutive wins.
The other four “unbeatens” to win the Derby were Seattle Slew (6-for-6, 1977), Majestic Prince (7-for-7, 1969), Morvich (11-for-11, 1922), and the filly Regret (3-for-3, 1915).
There is no getting around Pletcher’s 1-for-40 Kentucky Derby record but most handicappers seem willing to pull out the Etch A Sketch and start anew each spring. As a long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan who knows it’s been 107 years since that team’s last World Series triumph, I understand that anyone can have a bad year or bad decade (or in the case of the Cubs, a bad century).
But Pletcher isn’t the only one in a Kentucky Derby slump. Bob Baffert, who won with three of his first 12 starters, is 0-for-12 since 2002. Mike Maker, trainer of International Star, is 0-for-8. Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Frosted, is 0-for-5.
It’s horse racing, not trainer racing, and despite all the hoopla, the Derby, from a handicapping standpoint, is just another race. It’s an unusual one, in that it will be the biggest field these horses have ever seen, the largest crowd they’ll ever perform in front of, and the longest distance they will have been asked to run. That’s what makes it so challenging, and often, so unpredictable.
In 1979, Spectacular Bid became the sixth winning Derby favorite in eight years (including four years in a row, from 1972-75). He was followed by 20 years of losing favorites until Fusaichi Pegasus snapped that streak in 2000. A more reasonable number of winning favorites, four of 14, have won since then, including Orb in 2013 and California Chrome in 2015.
Most of the prep races run so far in 2014 have been relatively true to form. Will that continue on the first Saturday in May?
Slumps, Speed, And Perfection: Challenges Loom For Derby Contenders
by Ray Paulick
Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund and Florida Derby winner Materiality don’t know that only seven of 24 horses who came to the Kentucky Derby with perfect records left Churchill Downs still unbeaten. Likewise, Materiality and Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem have no idea that their seven-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has an abysmal record of 1-for-40 when it comes to the Run for the Roses on that first Saturday in May.
With only one major prep race left, Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, where 2014 champion American Pharoah will be heavily favored to improve his record to four wins from five starts, the prospective field is almost set for this 141st Kentucky Derby.
Bob Baffert, with Dortmund and American Pharoah, and Todd Pletcher, with Materiality and Carpe Diem, have the top four contenders on most pre-Derby lists. Either Dortmund, with his 6-for-6 record, or American Pharoah, depending on his upcoming Oaklawn Park performance, will be the likely favorite (right now, I would project Dortmund 7-2 and American Pharoah 4-1). Carpe Diem is the probable third betting choice (6-1) with Materiality (8-1) next in line, followed by Wood Memorial winner Frosted (12-1), with UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij, Sunland Park Derby winner Firing Line, Holy Bull winner Upstart and Louisiana Derby winner International Star (with the most Kentucky Derby points of anyone in the field) in the next flight at around 15-1. The rest, with final positions still to be sorted out, will be 20-1 or higher.
What’s most interesting to me about this field is that the top four contenders all have similar running styles: on or close to the lead. That could make for a mad dash in the mile and a quarter race – not out of the starting gate necessarily, or for the first half-mile, but in the run to the far turn and to the quarter pole.
Dortmund, American Pharoah, Materiality and Carpe Diem aren’t speed crazy, but none of them can be classified as stretch runners, either. So this year’s Derby could set up for someone who finishes strong and can pick up the pieces after an increasingly fast pace into and around that far turn at Churchill Downs.
It’s been 13 years since War Emblem took the Derby field wire to wire and it was 14 years before that when the filly Winning Colors did the same in 1988. Can one of those top four contenders take this field wire-to-wire? That seems doubtful to me, unless several jockeys fall asleep or expect someone else to show the way or contest the lead.
There have been just as many last-to-first winners as front-running victors since 1980: Gato Del Sol in 1982, Ferdinand in 1986, and Mine That Bird in 2009. Several others in that era – including Pleasant Colony, Sea Hero, Grindstone, Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Giacomo, Street Sense and Orb – came from deep in the field.
On the subject of perfection, three unbeaten horses won the Derby over a five-year period last decade (Smarty Jones, 2004; Barbaro, 2006; Big Brown, 2008), but Curlin in 2007, along with the Pletcher-trained Gemologist in 2012 and Verrazano in 2013 suffered their first defeats on Derby day. So did Baffert-trained Indian Charlie, in 1998, his four-race streak snapped by stablemate Real Quiet. In 1990, we had Mister Frisky, the Puerto Rican wonder horse who came to Churchill Downs off 13 wins in Puerto Rico and three at Santa Anita. In 1988, Private Terms was unbeaten in seven starts before finishing ninth in the Derby. There was Sensitive Prince in 1978 and Candy Spots in 1963 (both 6-for-6 before Derby losses) and the most famous of all, Native Dancer, who tasted defeat for the first time in the 1953 Derby after 11 consecutive wins.
The other four “unbeatens” to win the Derby were Seattle Slew (6-for-6, 1977), Majestic Prince (7-for-7, 1969), Morvich (11-for-11, 1922), and the filly Regret (3-for-3, 1915).
There is no getting around Pletcher’s 1-for-40 Kentucky Derby record but most handicappers seem willing to pull out the Etch A Sketch and start anew each spring. As a long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan who knows it’s been 107 years since that team’s last World Series triumph, I understand that anyone can have a bad year or bad decade (or in the case of the Cubs, a bad century).
But Pletcher isn’t the only one in a Kentucky Derby slump. Bob Baffert, who won with three of his first 12 starters, is 0-for-12 since 2002. Mike Maker, trainer of International Star, is 0-for-8. Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Frosted, is 0-for-5.
It’s horse racing, not trainer racing, and despite all the hoopla, the Derby, from a handicapping standpoint, is just another race. It’s an unusual one, in that it will be the biggest field these horses have ever seen, the largest crowd they’ll ever perform in front of, and the longest distance they will have been asked to run. That’s what makes it so challenging, and often, so unpredictable.
In 1979, Spectacular Bid became the sixth winning Derby favorite in eight years (including four years in a row, from 1972-75). He was followed by 20 years of losing favorites until Fusaichi Pegasus snapped that streak in 2000. A more reasonable number of winning favorites, four of 14, have won since then, including Orb in 2013 and California Chrome in 2015.
Most of the prep races run so far in 2014 have been relatively true to form. Will that continue on the first Saturday in May?
