Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2015 8:52:52 GMT -5
VERY insightful thoughts from Lenny a former contestant in the WSOH...
My strategy is simple, find horses between 3/1 - 5/1
Also my "mentor" will be helping me out...
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What it Takes to Win the Horse Player World Series
To date there have been eight editions of the Horse Player World Series.
The average winning score for those eight years was $3,146 and the median winning score was $3,132.
The highest winning score occurred last year and was $3,926, while the lowest winning score occurred in 2009 and was $2,619.40.
Based on those numbers a target score of $3,200 would be fair but to be on the safe side I’d add 10% to that target and shoot for $3,500.
A score of $3,500 would’ve won seven of the first eight Horse Player World Series.
The Competition
For the first seven editions of the Horse Player World Series players were limited to one entry.
Starting last year players were allowed to earn or purchase multiple entries.
The average field size for the first eight Horse Player World Series was 688 and the median field size was 681.
The highest field size occurred in 2005 and was 768, while the lowest field size occurred in 2010 and was 599.
To put that in perspective the average field size for the Horse Player World series is more than 200 players higher than the last two National Handicapping Championships.
Two Strategies for Winning the Horse Player World Series
There are two basic strategies for winning the Horse Player World Series.
The first is to look for mid to high priced horses focusing on those in the 5/1 to 15/1 range for most bets aiming for a moderate strike rate.
The second is to focus on short to mid priced horses in the 5/2 to 12/1 range for most bets aiming for a high strike rate.
With 45 bets spread across three days and over 200 races to choose from either strategy could be used to take down the top prize.
The first strategy is typical of what most handicapping contest players use and works very well in one day contests that consist of 8 to 15 races.
That is the strategy I use on a regular basis and I have had pretty good success doing so.
The second strategy is a bit more conservative and the major advantage is it will allow the player to deviate from the norm.
The Strategy I Will be Using
This year marks the first time I will be playing in the Horse Player World Series and being the contrarian that I am I will be using strategy number two.
I made this decision based on the fact that in order to make money betting on horses you have to deviate from the crowd.
I think the same strategy will give me the best chance of winning the Horse Player World Series.
Most players will pass on horses that are less than 5/1 but as we all know those horses win most of the races and with the format of this contest there is no reason to pass on them.
In a one day handicapping contest with 15 or fewer races this strategy would fail most of the time.
In a three day handicapping contest with 45 races, all of which are optional, I think this strategy will work well.
While my fellow competitors are going for lower percentage mid to high odds horses I will focus on low to mid odds horses that have a much better chance of winning.
I will still keep an eye out for any potential long shots but bets on those horses will be limited.
This strategy may backfire on me but either way I will be sure to let you know how it turns out.
At the very least the Horse Player World Series will be a learning experience and a chance to meet many of the people I interact with and play against throughout the year.
My strategy is simple, find horses between 3/1 - 5/1
Also my "mentor" will be helping me out...
br]
What it Takes to Win the Horse Player World Series
To date there have been eight editions of the Horse Player World Series.
The average winning score for those eight years was $3,146 and the median winning score was $3,132.
The highest winning score occurred last year and was $3,926, while the lowest winning score occurred in 2009 and was $2,619.40.
Based on those numbers a target score of $3,200 would be fair but to be on the safe side I’d add 10% to that target and shoot for $3,500.
A score of $3,500 would’ve won seven of the first eight Horse Player World Series.
The Competition
For the first seven editions of the Horse Player World Series players were limited to one entry.
Starting last year players were allowed to earn or purchase multiple entries.
The average field size for the first eight Horse Player World Series was 688 and the median field size was 681.
The highest field size occurred in 2005 and was 768, while the lowest field size occurred in 2010 and was 599.
To put that in perspective the average field size for the Horse Player World series is more than 200 players higher than the last two National Handicapping Championships.
Two Strategies for Winning the Horse Player World Series
There are two basic strategies for winning the Horse Player World Series.
The first is to look for mid to high priced horses focusing on those in the 5/1 to 15/1 range for most bets aiming for a moderate strike rate.
The second is to focus on short to mid priced horses in the 5/2 to 12/1 range for most bets aiming for a high strike rate.
With 45 bets spread across three days and over 200 races to choose from either strategy could be used to take down the top prize.
The first strategy is typical of what most handicapping contest players use and works very well in one day contests that consist of 8 to 15 races.
That is the strategy I use on a regular basis and I have had pretty good success doing so.
The second strategy is a bit more conservative and the major advantage is it will allow the player to deviate from the norm.
The Strategy I Will be Using
This year marks the first time I will be playing in the Horse Player World Series and being the contrarian that I am I will be using strategy number two.
I made this decision based on the fact that in order to make money betting on horses you have to deviate from the crowd.
I think the same strategy will give me the best chance of winning the Horse Player World Series.
Most players will pass on horses that are less than 5/1 but as we all know those horses win most of the races and with the format of this contest there is no reason to pass on them.
In a one day handicapping contest with 15 or fewer races this strategy would fail most of the time.
In a three day handicapping contest with 45 races, all of which are optional, I think this strategy will work well.
While my fellow competitors are going for lower percentage mid to high odds horses I will focus on low to mid odds horses that have a much better chance of winning.
I will still keep an eye out for any potential long shots but bets on those horses will be limited.
This strategy may backfire on me but either way I will be sure to let you know how it turns out.
At the very least the Horse Player World Series will be a learning experience and a chance to meet many of the people I interact with and play against throughout the year.
