Playing Favorites
Dec 31, 2014 18:38:07 GMT -5
Post by Evelyn on Dec 31, 2014 18:38:07 GMT -5
Do you play them straight or use only in exotics?
Favorite things
By Jay Cronley | ESPN
The horse won by ten, a dozen, who can tell exactly when you have to turn your head to the left to see who was about to finish next.
"Stupid thing was the chalk," a horse player said, tearing his losing ticket into tiny pieces and scattering them in a wide arc at the rail. These ticket pieces were not spread like confetti at a celebration. It was more like they were disposed of, like a bill that couldn't be paid.
The horse player obviously didn't need any more proof of a losing effort for the IRS. And the way he ripped the ticket into tiny pieces seemed to be aimed at keeping anybody from seeing what a dumb wager he had just made, a "value" bet, something like 20 bucks on a 10-1 shot that was finishing just about now.
"It will barely pay even money," the horse player said of the winner.
Such has become the horse race lottery, the routine wild swings at big money.
Which brings up a comparison in horse racing and any other investment endeavor: When was the last time you ever heard a gambler outside a track say this, "Stupid thing only paid one hundred and twenty percent."
"Even money" has become a depressing phrase at the horse race track. It's what the players roll their eyes at. It's what only the winos celebrate. It's what big hitters tip the tellers and servers, tickets with even money winners. Somehow -- probably thanks to fat sports salaries and big contest winners on TV -- losing on a long shot has come to be considered better -- more sporting at least -- than winning with the chalk.
By comparison, winning on favorites in other sports is often considered to be pure genius. About 475 of the approximately 500 pro football analysts on national television are strutting around while reminding everybody that he or she had Seattle and New England to play in the next Super Bowl. The thing is, so did little Bobby next door, age eight, and Aunt Martha, age 93. Who you like in college hoops? Kentucky and Duke? Pure brilliance. Who you like in the $5,000 claimer? The chalk? What are you, a glutton for agony?
Taking a better look at horse race favorites is a good way to start the year 2015.
Upon occasion, favorites can be great.
You can find one that can't lose unless it trips and falls and put half a million on it and pick up fifty grand on it to show just like that. Or you can put a playable favorite in a pick 3, a pick 4 or a pick 6 and win at least much as you deserve, usually more.
Many fat pick 3, 4 or 6 payoffs involve at least one favorite.
And most pick 3, 4 or 6 payoffs pay more than you would have guessed.
Big-time gambling syndicates pool monies and try to buy gigantic pick 6 carryovers at coastal and spa tracks. Wednesday night in the sticks, Thursday afternoon in the boonies, put together a couple of favorites, a 3-1 horse and a 5-1 shot, hit it, and you'll wonder why you ever bet anything else.
With floating doubles and 50-cent and dollar bets all over the programs, all you need is one good favorite to make your week.
A good favorite is one whose worst is still better than the best of most of the rest. Some of the best favorites turn up where you least expect to find them -- as first-time starters in maiden special races at odds-on prices. A maiden special race with something going off at 1-2 is the only place I have consistently found smart money -- or greedy connections -- at the race track. Another good favorite is one that has been in open company and is up against, or down against, state-bred horses with similar numbers. Other good favorites are coming off impossible gates or improper distances or trouble. The trouble with trouble is early trouble can be deceiving because who knows what would have happened later in the race. Upon occasion, the best young horses in short fields are simply gifts.
Given fat purses fortified by slot machine and casino profits, horses dropping down are no longer semi-automatic bad favorites. It used to be that most horses dropping down in class were broken. Anymore, some drop down and swoop in for the cash while hoping not to be claimed. Other bad favorites are cheap horses off a win. Anything off a big win is a big risk. Look at it this way. If there are a couple of ways a horse could lose versus this field, it probably will lose.
Here's the idea. Try to turn chalk into gold dust.
Favorite things
By Jay Cronley | ESPN
The horse won by ten, a dozen, who can tell exactly when you have to turn your head to the left to see who was about to finish next.
"Stupid thing was the chalk," a horse player said, tearing his losing ticket into tiny pieces and scattering them in a wide arc at the rail. These ticket pieces were not spread like confetti at a celebration. It was more like they were disposed of, like a bill that couldn't be paid.
The horse player obviously didn't need any more proof of a losing effort for the IRS. And the way he ripped the ticket into tiny pieces seemed to be aimed at keeping anybody from seeing what a dumb wager he had just made, a "value" bet, something like 20 bucks on a 10-1 shot that was finishing just about now.
"It will barely pay even money," the horse player said of the winner.
Such has become the horse race lottery, the routine wild swings at big money.
Which brings up a comparison in horse racing and any other investment endeavor: When was the last time you ever heard a gambler outside a track say this, "Stupid thing only paid one hundred and twenty percent."
"Even money" has become a depressing phrase at the horse race track. It's what the players roll their eyes at. It's what only the winos celebrate. It's what big hitters tip the tellers and servers, tickets with even money winners. Somehow -- probably thanks to fat sports salaries and big contest winners on TV -- losing on a long shot has come to be considered better -- more sporting at least -- than winning with the chalk.
By comparison, winning on favorites in other sports is often considered to be pure genius. About 475 of the approximately 500 pro football analysts on national television are strutting around while reminding everybody that he or she had Seattle and New England to play in the next Super Bowl. The thing is, so did little Bobby next door, age eight, and Aunt Martha, age 93. Who you like in college hoops? Kentucky and Duke? Pure brilliance. Who you like in the $5,000 claimer? The chalk? What are you, a glutton for agony?
Taking a better look at horse race favorites is a good way to start the year 2015.
Upon occasion, favorites can be great.
You can find one that can't lose unless it trips and falls and put half a million on it and pick up fifty grand on it to show just like that. Or you can put a playable favorite in a pick 3, a pick 4 or a pick 6 and win at least much as you deserve, usually more.
Many fat pick 3, 4 or 6 payoffs involve at least one favorite.
And most pick 3, 4 or 6 payoffs pay more than you would have guessed.
Big-time gambling syndicates pool monies and try to buy gigantic pick 6 carryovers at coastal and spa tracks. Wednesday night in the sticks, Thursday afternoon in the boonies, put together a couple of favorites, a 3-1 horse and a 5-1 shot, hit it, and you'll wonder why you ever bet anything else.
With floating doubles and 50-cent and dollar bets all over the programs, all you need is one good favorite to make your week.
A good favorite is one whose worst is still better than the best of most of the rest. Some of the best favorites turn up where you least expect to find them -- as first-time starters in maiden special races at odds-on prices. A maiden special race with something going off at 1-2 is the only place I have consistently found smart money -- or greedy connections -- at the race track. Another good favorite is one that has been in open company and is up against, or down against, state-bred horses with similar numbers. Other good favorites are coming off impossible gates or improper distances or trouble. The trouble with trouble is early trouble can be deceiving because who knows what would have happened later in the race. Upon occasion, the best young horses in short fields are simply gifts.
Given fat purses fortified by slot machine and casino profits, horses dropping down are no longer semi-automatic bad favorites. It used to be that most horses dropping down in class were broken. Anymore, some drop down and swoop in for the cash while hoping not to be claimed. Other bad favorites are cheap horses off a win. Anything off a big win is a big risk. Look at it this way. If there are a couple of ways a horse could lose versus this field, it probably will lose.
Here's the idea. Try to turn chalk into gold dust.