Jon
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Post by Jon on Dec 2, 2014 1:04:13 GMT -5
Dortmund top individual pick
Bloodhorse
Two 2-year-olds from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, Dortmund and American Pharoah, paced the individual selections Nov. 30 as the first future wager pool for the 2015 Kentucky Derby concluded.
Kaleem Shah's Dortmund, a son of Big Brown, is 2-for-2 in his brief career for three-time Derby winner Baffert. Yet to make his first stakes appearance, Dortmund closed as the top individual choice at 9-1, bet down from 50-1 on the morning line.
Meanwhile, Zayat Stables' two-time grade I winner American Pharaoh, who opened at 12-1 on the early line, finished at those same odds.
The mutuel field, as is almost always the case in the early future wagering, closed as the 3-5 favorite among the 24 betting interests listed in pool 1.
Others of greatest interest to bettors at this early stage were Texas Red at 14-1 and Carpe Diem at 15-1.
A total of $185,492 was wagered on the opening win pool, which started Nov. 28 and concluded at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 30. An additional $49,082 was bet on exactas.
Three additional Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools are scheduled in the months leading up to Derby 141. The dates for those pools are:
KDFW Pool 2: Friday, Feb. 6 through Sunday, Feb. 8 (12 weeks in advance of Derby)
KDFW Pool 3: Friday, Feb. 27 through Sunday, March 1 (nine weeks in advance of Derby)
KDFW Pool 4: Friday, March 27 through Sunday, March 29 (five weeks in advance of Derby)
Next year's Kentucky Derby is May 2.
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Jon
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Post by Jon on Dec 2, 2014 1:07:05 GMT -5
Science fiction pools
By Jay Cronley | Special to ESPN
According to Churchill Downs, it's Kentucky Derby time.
The first Derby future pool has come and come and gone, with a horse called Dortmund, which is a city in Germany -- and with "Dortmunder" being the lead character in Donald E. Westlake's funny series of novels about hustlers who can't quite get where they want to be -- emerging as the Pool 1 short horse at 9-1. Dortmund is regarded as a top Kentucky Derby contender because it won an allowance race at Churchill Downs. This shows why five to 25 bucks is plenty to wager on future pool number one. The odds of Dortmund reaching the post as the Derby favorite are approximately the moon-to-one. The shortest wagering interest from Pool 1 was the field at 3-5, or all others than the top 23 single horses listed. True, two or three-year olds sometimes come from somebody's back yard to win graded races and emerge with the dreaded "trendy" tag. But taking odds of 3-5 on something that has not yet run many good licks sounds draining.
It's pretty weird to find a future pool pop up in the year preceding the May Kentucky Derby race. This is the first time it has happened, which explains why peanuts were invested on Pool 1, something like $230,000, which is about what the owner of a tech takeover company prospect might have put on California Chrome to show in its turf victory at Del Mar.
When it comes to fun, it doesn't get much better than a horse race future bet. Advance pools on team sports usually run to form, which is to say that that the Bears probably aren't going to get there at 25-1. There are some straight-up future wagers that are inviting, such as over and under numbers on total wins. But there's nothing like having a ticket on California Chrome at 30-something-to-1 tucked into the pages of an old book for three months over the winter. Hope is a key element in any wager. Sitting on a $50 ticket with a big price attached to it is a pleasant experience.
Buying a future ticket is like buying a house as-is. If something quits working, you own it.
California Chrome is a galloping advertisement for Kentucky Derby future pool wagers. It won a couple of races and threw in a clunker and almost ran past its teeth in its workouts.
So how do you find one like that before the whole world saddles up?
The best guess is that you need to have lunch with somebody who owns a million-dollar horse and have it whispered to you that the animal is even better than anybody thought. The Derby future pool is one occasion where smart money is a chief handicapping feature. Smart money at a $5,000 claiming race is often chased to the windows by a few beers. All smart money ever means is somebody connected to a horse is pretty sure it is really fast. Smart money knows little about contenders. That, plus karma, is why smart money often runs second. But smart money here, at a future pool, could be just the ticket.
You might guess that $220,000 of the $230,000 wagered on Pool 1 was put forward by owners.
The next future pool is at least in the year in which the Derby will be run. Pool 2 is Feb. 6-8.
Those in search of winning a lot after investing a little would be well advised to jump into this pool because the one thing seasoned gamblers are good at is playing the blatantly obvious. A 30-1 horse from Pool 2 can put up a big win and show up at 5-1 in Pool 3.
So that's all we have to do. Find a horse that is getting bet in Pool 2 for no apparent reason and hope to ride the coattails of its sneaky connections.
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