Breeders' Cup chat

Breeders' Cup chat
By Jay Cronley | Special to ESPN

I sat down this morning with some people relatively new to the pastime of horse race handicapping. It was their first full Breeders' Cup weekend. Here are the highlights of that discussion.



The questions are theirs, the answers mine.



Question: You said the start of the Classic looked like the start of a Quarter Horse race.



Answer: Yes, the stunt man start altered the entire course of the race. One horse was prevented from running with the eventual winner. The favorite was almost knocked off its feet twice. Had something similar happened to a receiver on the last play in the Super Bowl, four penalty flags would have been thrown.



Q: So why wasn't the winner disqualified?



A: Somebody will have to ask the stewards.



Q: Did anybody ask them?



A: I didn't see it. They're like referees. They're the least interviewed people in sports.



Q: So how do you think the Cup races went?



A: Fine.



Q: Why?



A: There were no spills and typical gigantic payoffs.



Q: How come picking Breeders' Cup winners is so hard?



A: The Breeders' Cup races are more difficult than most because almost anybody could win any race. At the tracks in the sticks on a Thursday, half the horses in a race can't win because they're off physically or because of severe riding or training shortcomings. But the prices are through the roof in a Cup race. Bet a little, win a lot.



Q: Can anybody actually win money over the long haul in horse racing?



A: Sure. Exotic wagers, the Pick 3s, 4s and 6s routinely pay big sums of money. But handicapping horses successfully is like a first or second job. It takes time and skill, and understanding from anybody close by. Big payoffs come from public mistakes. Every so often a good number shows up on something you like. Even Las Vegas football odds makers occasionally put out a bad number, like Denver at New England being considered competitive. Getting big money on horses that should win is a gift. Patience is a key horse handicapping ingredient, which is why everybody else is over there pounding the slots.



Q: Where do people get some of those really nutty upset winners?



A: It's probably the owner or lucky number or funky name players.



Q: What's the best of horse racing?



A: One, Kentucky Derby. Two, Breeders' Cup Classic. Three, the Breeders' Cup race involving the best grass horse. Four, the Preakness. Five, maybe the Belmont Stakes.



Q: What's wrong with horse racing as a whole?



A: Most penalties imposed on cheaters are a joke. It's like keeping the star quarterback out of the first half against Podunk State. After months of appeals, a trainer who accidentally gave a horse a stimulant is fined something $75 and suspended Wednesday and Thursday. Trainers suspended in one state can race in another. A lack of universal rules is comically incompetent.



Q: Why are the "expert" pickers so bad?



A: Picking in public is stressful. Internet reaction to a bad run can cause a picker to swear off reading of all types. The pressure is such that pickers gravitate toward 3-5 horses so that there will at least be plenty of company after a loss.



Q: How did you do this Cup weekend?



A: I had five winners, though some might argue four. But if you will refer to the bit preceding Friday's picks, I said that there were two absurdly speedy horses that should be put on top for wins, then discarded from other wagers. These horses were the grass horse Obviously and Classic winner Bayern. Obviously ran as hard as it could and then waited for the tow truck. Bayern added a turn to the Classic, making a left out of the gate and brushing aside numerous contenders, then it kept running and won the race. Included in the sack of winners, I had one straight trifecta Friday, and listed all top four finishers in a grass race Saturday, for a payoff of more than $1,200 on a $2 box wager.



Q: What about next year's Breeders' Cup weekend?



A: It is at the epicenter of bluegrass and blueblood, Keeneland in Kentucky. Next up for some, the double at Finger Lakes.