Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 2:17:44 GMT -5
SO SUPPOSEDLY (ACCORDING TO CERTAIN MEMBERS) CA. IS FULL OF DRUG USING TRAINERS, SORE HORSES, DEADLY TRACKS, AND FRONT RUNNING SPEED TYPES WHO CANT RATE OR ROUTE, RIGHT? BUT LETS LOOK AT THIS YEARS (OR 2012 FOR THAT MATTER) 3 YR. OLDS AND HOW THEY DID AND WHERE THEY ARE NOW COMPARING CA. AND SAY NEW YORK.............
CA.'S TOP 3 YEAR OLDS THROUGH OUT THE YEAR, FROM START TO NOW..........
SHARED BELIEF- IN TOP FORM AN CURRENTLY RUNNIG. STILL UNDEFEATED
CA. CROME- WINNER OF SIX IN A ROW INCLUDING THE SANTA ANITA AND KENTUCKY DERIES AS WELL AS THE PREAKNESS. LEADER FOR 3 YR. OLD OF THE YEAR AND BACK IN TRAINING NEXT WEEK AFTER A BRIEF REST.
CANDY BOY- STILL IN TRAINING AND SOUND AS CAN BE. GRINDING AWAY, BUT JUST NOT AS GOOD AS THE TOP ONES RIGHT NOW.
BAYERN- IN TOP FORM, HEALTHY, AND ONE OF THE FAVORITES FOR THE HASKELL AND TRAVERS RIGHT NOW. JST SET A TRACK RECORD IN A GRADE 1 IN NEW YORK, NOT AT HOME IN CA.
NOW FOR THE TOP 3 YR. OLDS IN NEW YORK................
HONOR CODE- INJURED BEFORE HE COULD MAKE A START. THEN INJURED AGAIN AFTER ONE START AND HASNT RUN SINCE.
HAVANA- SAME STORY AS ABOVE.
STRONG MANDATE- GOT WORSE WITH EVERY START AND NOW FINISHED THANKS TO DR. KEVORKIAN.
UNCLE SIGH- INJURED AND DONE FOR THE YEAR.
SAMRAAT- INJURED AND DONE FOR THE YEAR.
WICKED STRONG- STILL PLODDING ALONG PASSING TIRED HORSES AND HOPING TO FIND ANOTHER FIELD WHERE ALL THE SPEED KILLS EACH OTHER AND STOPS LIKE IT FOR HIM IN THE WOOD MEMORIAL.
HMMMM, IM CONFUSED. WHERE EXACTLY IS IT UNSAFE TO RACE AGAIN?
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Post by Evelyn on Jul 22, 2014 20:01:35 GMT -5
Oh please - How about New Year's Day? And horses get injured - it happens. Bayern missed the TC because of injury! Shared Belief also.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2014 22:29:43 GMT -5
new years day was last year, and that was a bad step during a race, not a break down due to an extended campaign but even so, thas one horse and it was last year, almost 9 months ago. Bayern missed 2 months, is back in action, and it wasn't racing or track related. he had a bad hoof infection. had nothing to do with racing. both he and shared belief are both back at the top of theor game though. nothing career or campaign ending. the point is, even if you use those three instances, which is a stretch, that the way you and others like to make it sound is as if it is so much more dangerous or detrimental to a horses safety to race out here then other places. that clearly is not the case. but keep telling yourself whatever you need to to believe it ev.
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Post by Evelyn on Jul 24, 2014 8:45:43 GMT -5
No Wiz - Not unsafe for all of CA - just that polycrap at Del Mar - which thankfully is being replaced. The other difference is NY has a database for injuries. CA does not. So no one knows how many horses are injured in the mornings. You're simply too biased to have anyone respond to this drivel that you posted. It's BS and you know it!
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jul 24, 2014 21:13:34 GMT -5
new years day was last year, and that was a bad step during a race, not a break down due to an extended campaign but even so, thas one horse and it was last year, almost 9 months ago. Bayern missed 2 months, is back in action, and it wasn't racing or track related. he had a bad hoof infection. had nothing to do with racing. both he and shared belief are both back at the top of theor game though. nothing career or campaign ending. the point is, even if you use those three instances, which is a stretch, that the way you and others like to make it sound is as if it is so much more dangerous or detrimental to a horses safety to race out here then other places. that clearly is not the case. but keep telling yourself whatever you need to to believe it ev. That lightning fast Santa Anita track is a proven death trap. I think it is not even a matter of debate.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2014 22:09:04 GMT -5
No Wiz - Not unsafe for all of CA - just that polycrap at Del Mar - which thankfully is being replaced. The other difference is NY has a database for injuries. CA does not. So no one knows how many horses are injured in the mornings. You're simply too biased to have anyone respond to this drivel that you posted. It's BS and you know it! whats bs? everything I posted about those horses is true. if your too biased to see it I cant help that.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2014 10:17:28 GMT -5
Objectively speaking, the Jockey Club has a database that both NYRA and Del Mar (as well as a dozen or two other tracks) contribute information to.
When one looks at the breakdowns over a period of time, especially at a particular track, statistically the sample is just too small to make a concrete judgment about the overall safety of a track. For example, in 2012 there were five fatalities on the Del Mar main track out of more than 2000 starters. Last year there was only one out of 2000 starters. Does that mean that the track last year was five times "safer" than the previous year? Without knowing the details of the fatalities, it's impossible to know if it was the track's fault or the horse in any particular case was a "walking time bomb", who might have broken down just walking around the shed row.
The same thing with Saratoga a year or two ago - there was a hue and cry about several fatalities on the turf course. People were talking about the "dangerous" turf course, when it could just have been several unsound horses that happened to have run over the same course in a period of a couple of weeks.
A good example is the 1991 Belmont Park Breeders' Cup (maybe 1990?), when Go For Wand broke down. She was the third horse to die on the track THAT DAY, and afterward all the bleeding hearts, without facts, claimed that the track was dangerous! Well, it turns out that in the Sprint, Mr. Nickerson had a fatal heart attack (surely not because of the track surface) and Shaker Knit tripped over him and was fatally injured. So right there, with the details we see that the "dangerous" track that "killed" three horses that day really wasn't as dangerous as some would like us to believe.
Statistically speaking, what's the difference between 5 in 2000 or 1 in 2000? Really negligible.
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cait
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Post by cait on Jul 25, 2014 12:21:50 GMT -5
geo - the jc database is annual and doesn't really update until like march of the next year right? andi don't think it includes workouts - the nyra database is much more comprehensive - i don't if any tracks besides ny has similar
as to you question - it's not negligible to 4 owners and trainers and ex riders and jocks!
bleeding hearts? nah - just horse lovers
wizzie - no - noting wrong - just not many details re cali breakdowns - lol that's why it's biased - unless you're saying there weren't many cali thoros on the tc trail? i actually loved new years day, despite his trainer - hope your fave bayern makes it thru the year!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2014 13:45:23 GMT -5
I guess "statistically speaking" means nothing.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2014 21:53:41 GMT -5
and I hope crap daddy makes it back home to shitsville safely..............where he belongs running against shit!!
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Post by Evelyn on Jul 26, 2014 16:25:54 GMT -5
I'll ignore your snarky response George but can you answer the question? Is that true that the NYRA databse icludes breakdowns during training rather than just during races? The Jockey Club's is races only?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 17:07:06 GMT -5
EXACTLY WHAT GEORGE SAYS IS TRUE. BOTH OF YOU WANTED TO JUMP ALL OVER BAFFERT FOR WHAT HAPPEND OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. YES IT SUCKED, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF? THOSE NUMBERS HAVE NOW EVENED THEMSELVES OUT. WHAT HAPPENED WAS AN ABBERRATION NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGE WISE. IT JUST THREW EVERYTHING OUT OF WHACK AND GAVE THE HATERS (OF WHICH THERE ARE PLENTY AROUND HERE) AN EXCUSE AND FREE PASS TO SPEW THEIR NONSENSE. YES CAIT, WE ALL KNOW ABOUT THE WNERS, TRAINERS, JOCKS, SHOERS, VETS, SNACK BAR WORKERS, VALET PARKERS, AND SO FORTH. NO ONE WANTS TO SEE THE HORSES GET HURT. BUT ITS PART OF RACING SO GET USED TO IT AND STOP JUMPING DOWN CERTAIN PEOPLES THROATS FOR STUFF THAT IS NOT REALLY STTISTICALLY VALID JUST SO YOU CAN HATE ON PEOPLE FOR YOUR OWN REASONS. JUST AS MANY HORSES BREAK DOWN AT SARATOGA AS THEY DO OUT HERE IN THE LONG RUN.
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Post by Evelyn on Jul 26, 2014 17:23:45 GMT -5
Nobody jumped down anyone's throat! Goerge's reply was snarky and meaningless. Can you answer the question? Damn - you 2 are over the top contentious! I do agree about "haters" though. You are the biggest LOL No one is as nasty as you with their dislikes(Lukas, Frac Daddy, Durkin etc.) Once again Wiz - you can have your opinions but stop bashing people who disagree with you. It's unbecoming LOL You consistently ALWAYS assume the worst. How sad that you're such a negative person.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 17:40:10 GMT -5
LOLOL. I DONT HATE CRAP DADDY. IM JUST NOT GOING TO TRY TO TURN SOMETHING INTO SOMETHING IT ISNT. HE IS NOT A GRADE 1 OR TOP NOTCH HORSE AND NEVER WILL BE, AND LISTENING TO OTHER IMAGINE HE IS IS HILLARIOUS. JUST BECAUSE I DONT FAWN OVER HIM LIKE A PUPPY DOG, THST MEANS I HATE HIM? STOP THE BS. I DONT HATE DURKIN EITHER. HE IS JUST A VERY BAD ANOUNCER AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER. LUKAS? YES I HATE HIM. BUT I DONT BASH HIM ANYMORE OR UNFOUNDEDLY THEN YOU OR ESPECIALLY CAIT DOES BAFFERT OR WEST COAST RACING, YET YOU NEVER SAY SQUAT TO OR ABOUT HER DOING IT. TOTALLY BIASED. NOT NEGATIVE. JUST REALISTIC.
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Post by Evelyn on Jul 26, 2014 17:52:56 GMT -5
Fan over him? They seem to agree he's a notch below "Top Horse" but he's still a ery nice horse. Show me where I've bashed Bob? I did question the 7 mysterious deaths but you are completely wrong when you call be a Baffert hater. Yes - Cait does hate him but not me. And I really like Jill and have responded to some not nice comments about her. So back up your accusations wth facts or just STFU about things where your assumptions are wrong.
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Post by Evelyn on Jul 26, 2014 17:54:20 GMT -5
Also - back up the accusations that Cait has recently bashed the West Coast or Bob? Yes - the track surface at Del Mar but me too regarding that - and you also!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 18:28:07 GMT -5
ev, every post she makes has a backhanded comment attached to it about the west coast. that's just a reality. some of them are funny I admit and harmless, but they are still there. but like I said, when that happens it just gets brushed aside and you say nothing. also I have never said the track surface at del mar is any less safer then any other synthetic track. I just don't bet any of them.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 19:23:42 GMT -5
I'll ignore your snarky response George but can you answer the question? Is that true that the NYRA databse icludes breakdowns during training rather than just during races? The Jockey Club's is races only? Tell you what, I'll "answer the question" when the obnoxious comment about my post is moved. The fact is that the Jockey Club database is the industry standard, and the ONLY way tracks across the country can be compared and judged. If that's all that is currently available, it shouldn't be casually dismissed to prove a (misguided) point. STATISTICALLY SPEAKING (not SNARKY), the difference between 1 death in 2000 and 5 deaths in 2000 is STATISTICALLY negligible. When a plane loaded with about 200 people crashed at SFO last year and only one person died, officials were relieved and thankful. Of course, for that one person and her family the incident was devastating. But STATISTICALLY SPEAKING, it was a huge relief to officials. But to dismiss my comment with, yes, a truly SNARKY comment is childish and unreasonable. We're talking about less than 1/4 of a percent vs. 1/20 of a percent - 5 in 2000 vs. 1 in 2000, and that's without even analyzing the reasons for the deaths. Regardless of the emotion and opportunity to take a snipe at someone, the difference is negligible. Dance With Fate suffered a fatal injury during training on the track at Del Mar. It will go down as a "training fatality", but was it the fault of the track? NO. If the same type of incident had happened on the track before or during a race, it would have been characterized as a racing fatality. That could very well have been similar to one of the 5 mentioned above. But, it was a freak accident that resulted in a fatality. Two years from now when people are looking at statistics, the circumstances will be forgotten and will just be part of a "number". I know this is probably too deep and theoretical, but it's also reality.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 19:27:02 GMT -5
Nobody jumped down anyone's throat! Goerge's reply was snarky and meaningless. Can you answer the question? Damn - you 2 are over the top contentious! I do agree about "haters" though. You are the biggest LOL No one is as nasty as you with their dislikes(Lukas, Frac Daddy, Durkin etc.) Once again Wiz - you can have your opinions but stop bashing people who disagree with you. It's unbecoming LOL You consistently ALWAYS assume the worst. How sad that you're such a negative person. Do you know anything about statistics? Amazing, we're talking about a game and industry that LIVES on statistics, yet when they're brought up in a discussion that doesn't comply with the party line, it's "snarky" and "meaningless". What specifically was "snarky"? Why specifically was it "meaningless"? I doubt we'll see a reasonable reply.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2014 20:47:05 GMT -5
this is definatel;y something I agree with.
when I bring up the fact that a trainer is 1 for 60 and is someone I would never bet or is a bad trainer. im usually hit with a response like "well at least he didn't have 7 horses die" or "he loves his horses and gives them sugar cubes". what the hell does thsat have to do with how good a trainer someone is? as George said, this is a sport that survives on stats, percentages, and results, not how much a trainer loves his horses. why is it snarky to use statistics? why is it mean to point out that one person is more successful then another? that's what this game and industry is built on. competition and winning and losing. these aren't show horses. its racing and gambling and if your not successful at it then you are a loser.
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