Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2014 23:01:19 GMT -5
time for a rare play for me these days with these shitty race cards spread throughout the country.
the first two races in the pick four I really have no betting opinion on. I like the 4 favorites in the first leg (race2) and the chalk the best. it is not a bettable race other then in the pick four.
you have basically the same situation in the second leg, the WILLARD PROCTOR STAKES. the only real throwout for me is the first time starter, the #5. I would say however that I do like the 1 and the 4 the best over the 2 over the 3 and 6. once again not a bettable race unless the either one of my top two gets hammered and the other goes off at at least 3-1.
now where it gets interesting. races 4 and 5.
race 4 to me has 3 throwouts and 5 possibilities, and my two top picks. I cant see 7,9,or 10 having any chance. I wont use them anywhere. the 1,2,3,5, and 6 are all possibilities for one reason or another, but I don't really like them either. one has faded in every start at this distance against this kind. his only two decent starts were his last two at over a furlong less and against fading qh's. two is a 210,000 purchase by curlin who debuts for 20.000 with slow works for reddam and oneil? pass. three, five, and six just look as ordinary as can be and have had plenty of chances. that leaves 4 and 8. I do like 8 better but I will use them both equal. four debuted last year at del mar and did nothing, then layed up for mine months after the debut, indicating something went wrong. maybe he bucked shins, or any number of things. then he comes back off of 3 sporadic works and shows slight speed and stops again in a race he clearly needed. then another work in good time and a shorter trip in a race over the tack that was much improved and btl. showing speed and racing wide on opening day when the inside was a freeway and the outside horses were hanging all day. now this is his 3rd off the layoff and he catches a a very talent starved field. he definitely has a shot.
now the 8. all im going to say is its every angle play in the book. route back to sprint off of one race in a debut where he walked out of the gate and never picked up his feet. got a little action first time out off of slow works, and has now worked much better 3 times in a row since. he adds blinkers for this, gets a big rider change, and catches a weak field. he may just be a completely different animal with the blinkers.
I will use 4 and 8 equal on most tickest and spread on maybe one other using all the possibles.
to be continued. nap time.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 2:01:56 GMT -5
race 5
pretty simple really. I think ed made a horrible ml here. you have the 4 horse who is a 3 yr. old coming out of a race in which she was badly overmatch against better, but it was still a restricted race for 3 yr. olds only. she was never a threat and has basically never been a threat in any of her races since she broke her maiden at laurel. she is another perfect example of a plodder. she has no speed and no real kick either. she is just a follower, no matter who she is in against. she got an inflated beyer last time because she was in a stakes race and has done nothing to impress me.
the 3 horse is another just like her, but at least she is older and does get a positive trainer change and a hot rider off the layoff. however she has no speed and has never been on dirt and is another one time winner. the 2 looks overmatched and took 10 starts to break her maiden against claimers, as well as being an apparent turf horse.
that leaves 1 and 5. winners of 17 waces between them and 33% of their starts. one a front runner and the other a stalker who figure to get no pressure as long as antongorgi doesn't do something stupid and duel the 1 early. id much rather have delgadillo on the 5, but still figures to get a great tip sitting off the 1 if that one stops. however, I like 1 the best. lone-f stretching out and draws the rail which is huge in my estimation at los al going a mile. shes in great form and this is as good a time as any to try the distance. shes a solid price and a big play in here.
I am going to play these bets...............
race 4.
2.00 tris
48 w 1234568 w 1234568= 120.00
1234568 w 48 w 1234568= 120.00
5.00 exactas
48 w 1234568= 60.00
1234568 w 48= 60.00
10.00 exacxta box
4,8= 20.00
60.00 wp #8= 120.00
total $500.00
race 2
p4's
all .50 plays unless noted
1237
12346
48
15= 40.00
1237
124
48
15= 24.00
1237
14
48
15= 16.00
7
12346
48
15= 10.00x2= 20.00
7
124
48
15= 6.00x3=18.00
7
14
48
15= 4.00x5=20.00
7
12346
48
all= 25.00
7
14
48
all= 10.00
7
12346
1234568
15= 35.00
7
14
1234568
15= 14.00
1237
14
48
all= 40.00
7
14
48
all= 10.00
1237
14
1234568
15= 56.00
7
14
1234568
15= 14.00
total $342.00
depending on whether im live or not in the pick four, I may also play doubles and triples on the 4th and 5th and 3rd, 4th, and 5th and a win bet and exactas in the 5th.
|
|
Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
|
Post by Nostradamus on Jul 13, 2014 13:56:44 GMT -5
Let me help you out a little bit. This is called logical deduction/reduction method.
Race 4:
#5 Triunfo looks the best on paper. He was competitive for 50K at BHP battling for lead at 4 1/2F. Then he ran one off lead at SA 20K in 45/3 at 5 1/2F and finished 2nd, and in last race almost beat 30K at los Al in 45/4 fractions. So lets just compare every horse to him as he sets the obvious standard in the race as the horse to beat.
#4 ran 45/4 at Los Al in last race for only 20K and was farther off the lead than #5 at 30K. In addition in #4's only race at SA he ran 4 length off of Destino at the 4F point. #5 beat Desino in that same race I mentioned above at SA when #5 was only one off in that race and finished 2nd with Destino 3rd. In next race after getting beat by #5 Triunfo, Destino handed the #4 Juwan his azz.
#1 Best Ransom on Feb 15th at SA for 30K broke by 1/2 off lead in 21/3 and was 2 off lead in 45/2 in race that Omar Little ran 2nd. Comining out of this very race Omar Little handed the #5 his azz three races back and the closest the #5 got to Omar Little was 5 lengths off. Therefore the key race horse in all the PP's is Omar Little. Compare all horses in the race off of how well they did against the likes of Omar Little.
So comparing the three horses in the race coming out of the fastest fractional and classiest horseflesh race #1 looks like the best. That is called logical deduction-reduction and Wala the winner is #1 Best Ransom of course. lol.
|
|
Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
|
Post by Nostradamus on Jul 13, 2014 15:17:36 GMT -5
Race 5
This looks like a pretty even race where all the horses look about the same quality. The #1 though is not of the same class level as the others but is the clear speed of the race on the rail and will try to steal it on the lead. That does not bode well for #5 who actually looks just a slight bit better than the two favories #3 & #4. In fact the #5 ran in the same race as #4 and was just off the pace tiring just at the end, so I would say #5 is sligtly better than #4.
#3 does not look like anything special either. However she ran a pretty impressive race in the California Oaks race at GG. They then switched her to turf where she did not run too bad but I don't think any of the horses she ran agaist were that class of animals. Now back to the dirt looks very good for her.
#2 Woody's Wharf acually ran better than #3 on turf against the same horse Sensationalize so #2 is in the league of #3 and looks like can run off the pace and make a move at the end.
I think the #1 and #5 will battle all around for the lead and kill each other off as the #5 can on win on the lead. That will leave it up to a strong closer which I think will be The #2 or #3.
Another logical deduction-reduction pick which goes to the #2 and #3.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 16:02:33 GMT -5
Good luck wiz. I haven't scrutinized them, but it looks like some of your pick 4s have been decimated by scratches. Fields are now 7, 4, 9, and 4 horses.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 16:21:53 GMT -5
hey F*nut, how many days of racing have you watched at los al this meet? but yet you suddenly have a strong enough opinion to use deductive reasoning? fortunately once I saw that statement I stopped reading so I don't have to be mind F*ed by your idiocy. but once again, thanks for stalking me and my posts.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 16:23:01 GMT -5
Good luck wiz. I haven't scrutinized them, but it looks like some of your pick 4s have been decimated by scratches. Fields are now 7, 4, 9, and 4 horses. only one important one. it saves me money I guess. I just need to redo my tickets which I just did. |
|
|
|
Post by byanose13 on Jul 13, 2014 18:00:33 GMT -5
Hope your 5 comes or you catch the fav and you looking at a nice hit on the P4.
Good Job Wiz
I took a bath today but I have been on a pretty good roll (with Mohawk!? can you believe it) so maybe it's your turn to roll for awhile.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 18:04:34 GMT -5
no favorite for me. I replayed them and used all for extras and singled five for extras. im live to all 10x and the 5 36x.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 18:06:23 GMT -5
no favorite for me. I replayed them and used all for extras and singled five for extras. im live to all 10x and the 5 36x. There you go, 46x, good job. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 18:07:20 GMT -5
winner!!!!!!!
learn the game re tardnick. play when you have a reason and an edge. not when your sitting at home on your ass bored and trying to act like you have a clue!!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 18:10:26 GMT -5
Pretty good price, too, for those short fields and the biggest price being $7.80.
|
|
|
|
Post by byanose13 on Jul 13, 2014 18:13:38 GMT -5
Did you hit for 46X? WOW What a Hit
That is 5Gs with your WP bet on the 8 if it is for 46X.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 18:34:24 GMT -5
yeah and I ened up playing less then originally and had it way more times.
my final play was this ...........
1237
146
48
5= 12.00x2= 24.00
1237
14
48
5= 8.00x4=32.00
7
146
48
5= 3.00x4=12.00
7
14
48
5= 2.00x10=20.00
7
146
48
2345=12.00x3=36.00
7
146
134568
5= 9.00x2=18.00
1237
14
48
2345= 32.00x2=64.00
1237
14
134568
5= 24.00
7
14
487
2345= 8.00x5=40.00
7
14
134568
5= 6.00x3= 18.00
total play -288 in the pick four
winning tickets= 36x $99.55= $3583.80 returned
bet -500 in the 4th and returned +532 counting scratches.
total play for the day= wagered - 788, returned +4115.80= profit of $3327.80.
should have made way more in that fourth race. I hated everyone other then 4 and 8 and should have just punched the all box for the tris and exactas. that would have been a lot bigger score. plus my horse got bet down bad also. but its still a winning day. something someone else on here hasn't seen for over a year I believe.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 18:34:53 GMT -5
36x nose.
|
|
