Can a horse who didn't race at 2 win the Derby?
Feb 23, 2014 15:06:07 GMT -5
Post by Evelyn on Feb 23, 2014 15:06:07 GMT -5
I don't Wiz will like this article (!) but I thought it was good history.
A Significant Strike Against Bayern
By Jon White
HRTV site
The superlatives were flying after Bayern’s 15-length allowance victory in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita Park last Thursday. The Offlee Wild colt completed his journey in 1:35.77 and was assigned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure.
But the strong belief here is Bayern has a significant strike against him with regard to his chances of winning this year’s Kentucky Derby -- i.e., he did not race as a 2-year-old. A considerable amount of evidence shows us it is very difficult to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2.
Everyone knows how hard it is sweep the Triple Crown. It is considered one of the most difficult feats in all of sports, not just racing.
But while there have been 11 Triple Crown winners, only one horse -- Apollo in 1882 -- has ever won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old.
There now have been 131 straight Kentucky Derby winners who competed at 2. Not only that, the total score is a lopsided 138-1 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2 vs. those who did not.
Whether or not a horse started as a 2-year-old is one of my nine key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from both a tactical and historical perspective. For each of the nine categories in which a horse doesn’t qualify, the horse gets a strike. The total number of strikes for a horse can’t be ascertained until they have made their final start before the Kentucky Derby.
Am I saying it’s impossible for Bayern to win this year’s Run for the Roses? No. He obviously is a very talented colt. And pure talent can overcome a lot.
What I am saying is that even though Bayern obviously is an exceptional colt, the odds are against him winning the Kentucky Derby because he did not start at 2.
Curlin was a exceptional colt, too. But as talented as he was, he finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby without having competed at 2.
Bodemeister also was an exceptional colt. But as talented as he was, he finished second in the 2012 Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2.
Speaking of Bodemeister, in the winner’s circle following Bayern’s dazzling victory last week, his trainer, Bob Baffert, said it was a performance that reminded him of Bodemeister, who also was conditioned by Baffert.
“When [Bayern] kicked away, I got goose bumps,” Baffert was quoted as later saying in a story written by Jennifer Wirth for The Saturday Post. “He reminded me a little of Bodemeister when I first stretched him out.”
In Bodemeister’s career debut, he finished second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita in January. In his next start on Feb. 11, Bodemeister won by 9 1/4 lengths and completed one mile in 1:34.45 while recording a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
It is interesting that in Wirth’s story, when Baffert was asked about Bayern’s Kentucky Derby potential, the Hall of Fame trainer “exercised the caution and hope that comes with experience,” as Wirth put it.
“I think he’s a very talented colt that still needs to prove to me that he can train and handle the rigors of the Derby trail,” Baffert said. “I am going to let him tell me. He got a little bit of a late start, so I am not going to push him. If it happens, it happens.”
After Bodemeister’s big maiden win, Baffert ran him in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe. Bodemeister finished second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe, then romped to a 9 1/2-length victory in Oaklawn Park’s Arkansas Derby before finishing second to I’ll Have Another in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
“I’ll either run [Bayern] in the San Felipe or skip it and wait for the Santa Anita Derby,” Baffert said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Steve Andersen.
At this same time last year, Verrazano was the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby as a result of his two victories from as many career starts. He won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race by 7 3/4 lengths when unveiled at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 1, then really had people buzzing after he registered a 16 1/4-length triumph and was assigned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race at Gulfstream on Feb. 2. But as talented as Verrazano is, he finished 14th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby without having competed at 2.
Going back to 1956, horses who did not start at 2 are a combined 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, just five horses who did not race at 2 managed to even place or show in the Run for the Roses -- Agitate (third in 1974), Reinvested (third in 1982), Strodes Creek (second in 1994), Curlin (third in 2007) and Bodemeister (second in 2012).
From 1956 through 2013, these are the 50 horses to try and win the roses without having started at 2:
No Regrets (finished 7th in 1956)
Gone Fishin’ (8th in 1958)
Our Dad (15th in 1959)
Gleaming Sword (14th in 1968)
Fourulla (19th in 1971)
Big Spruce (7th in 1972)
Kentuckian (10th in 1972)
Dr. Neale (15th in 1972)
Forego (4th in 1973)
Twice a Prince (12th in 1973)
Agitate (3rd in 1974)
Confederate Yankee (12th in 1974)
Media (5th in 1975)
Bold Chapeau (8th in 1975)
Amano (4th in 1976)
On the Sly (5th in 1976)
Affiliate (9th in 1977)
Best Person (15th in 1977)
Chief of Dixieland (9th in 1978)
Great Redeemer (10th in 1979)
Flying Nashua (8th in 1981)
Reinvested (3rd in 1982)
Air Forbes One (7th in 1982)
Wavering Monarch (12th in 1982)
Majestic Shore (eased in 1984)
Irish Fighter (11th in 1985)
Wheatley Hall (6th in 1986)
Zabaleta (12th in 1986)
Pendleton Ridge (13th in 1990)
Corporate Report (9th in 1991)
Alydavid (14th in 1991)
Devil His Due (12th in 1992)
Disposal (18th in 1992)
Strodes Creek (2nd in 1994)
Pulpit (4th in 1997)
Desert Hero (13th in 1999)
Valhol (15th in 1999)
Wheelaway (5th in 2000)
Curule (7th in 2000)
Trippi (11th in 2000)
Atswhatimtalknabout (4th in 2003)
Song of the Sword (11th in 2004)
Greeley’s Galaxy (11th in 2005)
Showing Up (6th in 2006)
Curlin (3rd in 2007)
Summer Bird (6th in 2009)
Dunkirk (11th in 2009)
Midnight Interlude (16th in 2011)
Bodemeister (2nd in 2012)
Verrazano (14th in 2013)
Prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby, Steve Crist expressed the opinion in the Racing Form that it seems “silly” to give credence to so-called Derby “rules” such as considering it important that a horse raced as a 2-year-old. I, on the other hand, think it’s silly to ignore the overwhelming evidence that it’s a tall order for a horse to try and win the Kentucky Derby without having competed at 2.
“Over the last decade we have seen one Derby ‘rule’ after another broken by winners who did not seem to have the requisite foundation or recent experience,” Crist wrote. “It seems silly to cling to old maxims in a rapidly changing game. Tom Ainslie, the dean of American handicapping authors, 50 years ago advised players never to bet on a horse who had not run in the last 14 days. It was sound advice at the time, but today would disqualify the majority of horses on any given day of racing.”
I do agree with Crist that the Thoroughbred racing game of today is vastly different than it was back in the day. And one of these years, somebody -- perhaps even Bayern this year -- probably will come along and win the roses without having started at 2, especially considering today’s Thoroughbreds generally make far fewer starts than they once did.
But I prefer to have the odds with me rather than against me whenever I am trying to pick a winner. And the odds, as evidenced by the score of 138-1, simply are not in your favor if you bet on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby who did not race at 2.
By the way, as I have pointed out in this column in the past, a compelling case can be made that the only horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 was quite fortunate to do so.
According to a 2007 Lexington Herald-Lexington story written by Maryjean Wall, the Kentucky Derby win by Apollo was “considered one of the biggest upsets of that era.” The Brooklyn Daily Eagle reported that Apollo “was hardly thought of before the race and was given but very scanty attention by the betting ring.”
In 1882, the Kentucky Derby was a 1 1/2-mile event. It did not become a 1 1/4-mile race until 1890.
The track was muddy for the 1882 Kentucky Derby. According to Wall’s story, Runnymede had a reputation for disliking a muddy track. Not only that, while Runnymede did race at 2, the Kentucky Derby was his first start at 3. Apollo had raced three times at 3 in New Orleans prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Inasmuch as Runnymede was trying to win a 1 1/2-mile race in the mud in his first start of the year, he actually acquitted himself well to finish second, only a half-length behind Apollo. If Runnymede would have had a prep race and/or the track had been fast for the Kentucky Derby, he probably would have won. And if Runnymede instead of Apollo had won the 1882 Derby, then the score would be 139-0 in terms of in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2 vs. those who did not.
If anybody can pull off the extremely difficult feat of winning the Kentucky Derby with a horse who did not race as a 2-year-old, it might well be an outstanding trainer like Baffert. After all, Baffert and the great Charlie Whittingham are the only two conditioners since 1956 to finish as high as second in the Run for the Roses with a horse who did not start at 2. Whittingham did it with Strodes Creek, Baffert with Bodemeister.
But any way you slice it, even though Bayern is a very talented equine athlete, history is not on his side when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.
A Significant Strike Against Bayern
By Jon White
HRTV site
The superlatives were flying after Bayern’s 15-length allowance victory in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita Park last Thursday. The Offlee Wild colt completed his journey in 1:35.77 and was assigned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure.
But the strong belief here is Bayern has a significant strike against him with regard to his chances of winning this year’s Kentucky Derby -- i.e., he did not race as a 2-year-old. A considerable amount of evidence shows us it is very difficult to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2.
Everyone knows how hard it is sweep the Triple Crown. It is considered one of the most difficult feats in all of sports, not just racing.
But while there have been 11 Triple Crown winners, only one horse -- Apollo in 1882 -- has ever won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old.
There now have been 131 straight Kentucky Derby winners who competed at 2. Not only that, the total score is a lopsided 138-1 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2 vs. those who did not.
Whether or not a horse started as a 2-year-old is one of my nine key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from both a tactical and historical perspective. For each of the nine categories in which a horse doesn’t qualify, the horse gets a strike. The total number of strikes for a horse can’t be ascertained until they have made their final start before the Kentucky Derby.
Am I saying it’s impossible for Bayern to win this year’s Run for the Roses? No. He obviously is a very talented colt. And pure talent can overcome a lot.
What I am saying is that even though Bayern obviously is an exceptional colt, the odds are against him winning the Kentucky Derby because he did not start at 2.
Curlin was a exceptional colt, too. But as talented as he was, he finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby without having competed at 2.
Bodemeister also was an exceptional colt. But as talented as he was, he finished second in the 2012 Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2.
Speaking of Bodemeister, in the winner’s circle following Bayern’s dazzling victory last week, his trainer, Bob Baffert, said it was a performance that reminded him of Bodemeister, who also was conditioned by Baffert.
“When [Bayern] kicked away, I got goose bumps,” Baffert was quoted as later saying in a story written by Jennifer Wirth for The Saturday Post. “He reminded me a little of Bodemeister when I first stretched him out.”
In Bodemeister’s career debut, he finished second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita in January. In his next start on Feb. 11, Bodemeister won by 9 1/4 lengths and completed one mile in 1:34.45 while recording a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
It is interesting that in Wirth’s story, when Baffert was asked about Bayern’s Kentucky Derby potential, the Hall of Fame trainer “exercised the caution and hope that comes with experience,” as Wirth put it.
“I think he’s a very talented colt that still needs to prove to me that he can train and handle the rigors of the Derby trail,” Baffert said. “I am going to let him tell me. He got a little bit of a late start, so I am not going to push him. If it happens, it happens.”
After Bodemeister’s big maiden win, Baffert ran him in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe. Bodemeister finished second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe, then romped to a 9 1/2-length victory in Oaklawn Park’s Arkansas Derby before finishing second to I’ll Have Another in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
“I’ll either run [Bayern] in the San Felipe or skip it and wait for the Santa Anita Derby,” Baffert said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Steve Andersen.
At this same time last year, Verrazano was the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby as a result of his two victories from as many career starts. He won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race by 7 3/4 lengths when unveiled at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 1, then really had people buzzing after he registered a 16 1/4-length triumph and was assigned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race at Gulfstream on Feb. 2. But as talented as Verrazano is, he finished 14th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby without having competed at 2.
Going back to 1956, horses who did not start at 2 are a combined 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby. During this period, just five horses who did not race at 2 managed to even place or show in the Run for the Roses -- Agitate (third in 1974), Reinvested (third in 1982), Strodes Creek (second in 1994), Curlin (third in 2007) and Bodemeister (second in 2012).
From 1956 through 2013, these are the 50 horses to try and win the roses without having started at 2:
No Regrets (finished 7th in 1956)
Gone Fishin’ (8th in 1958)
Our Dad (15th in 1959)
Gleaming Sword (14th in 1968)
Fourulla (19th in 1971)
Big Spruce (7th in 1972)
Kentuckian (10th in 1972)
Dr. Neale (15th in 1972)
Forego (4th in 1973)
Twice a Prince (12th in 1973)
Agitate (3rd in 1974)
Confederate Yankee (12th in 1974)
Media (5th in 1975)
Bold Chapeau (8th in 1975)
Amano (4th in 1976)
On the Sly (5th in 1976)
Affiliate (9th in 1977)
Best Person (15th in 1977)
Chief of Dixieland (9th in 1978)
Great Redeemer (10th in 1979)
Flying Nashua (8th in 1981)
Reinvested (3rd in 1982)
Air Forbes One (7th in 1982)
Wavering Monarch (12th in 1982)
Majestic Shore (eased in 1984)
Irish Fighter (11th in 1985)
Wheatley Hall (6th in 1986)
Zabaleta (12th in 1986)
Pendleton Ridge (13th in 1990)
Corporate Report (9th in 1991)
Alydavid (14th in 1991)
Devil His Due (12th in 1992)
Disposal (18th in 1992)
Strodes Creek (2nd in 1994)
Pulpit (4th in 1997)
Desert Hero (13th in 1999)
Valhol (15th in 1999)
Wheelaway (5th in 2000)
Curule (7th in 2000)
Trippi (11th in 2000)
Atswhatimtalknabout (4th in 2003)
Song of the Sword (11th in 2004)
Greeley’s Galaxy (11th in 2005)
Showing Up (6th in 2006)
Curlin (3rd in 2007)
Summer Bird (6th in 2009)
Dunkirk (11th in 2009)
Midnight Interlude (16th in 2011)
Bodemeister (2nd in 2012)
Verrazano (14th in 2013)
Prior to the 2012 Kentucky Derby, Steve Crist expressed the opinion in the Racing Form that it seems “silly” to give credence to so-called Derby “rules” such as considering it important that a horse raced as a 2-year-old. I, on the other hand, think it’s silly to ignore the overwhelming evidence that it’s a tall order for a horse to try and win the Kentucky Derby without having competed at 2.
“Over the last decade we have seen one Derby ‘rule’ after another broken by winners who did not seem to have the requisite foundation or recent experience,” Crist wrote. “It seems silly to cling to old maxims in a rapidly changing game. Tom Ainslie, the dean of American handicapping authors, 50 years ago advised players never to bet on a horse who had not run in the last 14 days. It was sound advice at the time, but today would disqualify the majority of horses on any given day of racing.”
I do agree with Crist that the Thoroughbred racing game of today is vastly different than it was back in the day. And one of these years, somebody -- perhaps even Bayern this year -- probably will come along and win the roses without having started at 2, especially considering today’s Thoroughbreds generally make far fewer starts than they once did.
But I prefer to have the odds with me rather than against me whenever I am trying to pick a winner. And the odds, as evidenced by the score of 138-1, simply are not in your favor if you bet on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby who did not race at 2.
By the way, as I have pointed out in this column in the past, a compelling case can be made that the only horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 was quite fortunate to do so.
According to a 2007 Lexington Herald-Lexington story written by Maryjean Wall, the Kentucky Derby win by Apollo was “considered one of the biggest upsets of that era.” The Brooklyn Daily Eagle reported that Apollo “was hardly thought of before the race and was given but very scanty attention by the betting ring.”
In 1882, the Kentucky Derby was a 1 1/2-mile event. It did not become a 1 1/4-mile race until 1890.
The track was muddy for the 1882 Kentucky Derby. According to Wall’s story, Runnymede had a reputation for disliking a muddy track. Not only that, while Runnymede did race at 2, the Kentucky Derby was his first start at 3. Apollo had raced three times at 3 in New Orleans prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Inasmuch as Runnymede was trying to win a 1 1/2-mile race in the mud in his first start of the year, he actually acquitted himself well to finish second, only a half-length behind Apollo. If Runnymede would have had a prep race and/or the track had been fast for the Kentucky Derby, he probably would have won. And if Runnymede instead of Apollo had won the 1882 Derby, then the score would be 139-0 in terms of in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2 vs. those who did not.
If anybody can pull off the extremely difficult feat of winning the Kentucky Derby with a horse who did not race as a 2-year-old, it might well be an outstanding trainer like Baffert. After all, Baffert and the great Charlie Whittingham are the only two conditioners since 1956 to finish as high as second in the Run for the Roses with a horse who did not start at 2. Whittingham did it with Strodes Creek, Baffert with Bodemeister.
But any way you slice it, even though Bayern is a very talented equine athlete, history is not on his side when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.
besides where ever your at thats where you are U-Betcha