southwest stakes
Feb 17, 2014 4:47:51 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2014 4:47:51 GMT -5
unlike some, I will not interject my opinion where it doesn't belong. since I am out of the contest this week, I wont post an opinion on that thread. I also will not comment on or bash another persons opinion, regardless of how fool hearty it may be. let me just make this clear......... I DO NOT LOVE ANYTHING IN THIS RACE!! this is not a guarantee nor is it a strong play. I will not try to make it sound that way before or after the race, as some like to do. this is also one of the few times a week I will post even an opinion, and even fewer when I will take the time to explain it. unlike some who seem to have multiple opinions a day, even double digit sometimes.
this is a very wide open race. my opinion on this race is going o differ from that of most of you, and it has nothing to do with the fact that I do not like lukas.
lets start with the favoites.
strong mandate- this horse will be 6/5 or less more then likely, and offers no value. but even worse, he is in no way a sure thing here. IF he runs his best race, he does figure to be tough, but still not a sure thing. the problem is, I doubt that will happen. first off, lukas has NEVER been known as a trainer to win first time out or fire fresh off of a layoff. he usually races his horse intoshape rather then works them. even when he was so strong back in the day with his babies, they usually improved big time second time out. look at his most recent top horses. oxbow and wtc both got better with the more racing they had. the problem with that way of training with todays horses is sometimes they go sore before they get into top condition, which is another thing lukas is famous for. over racing his horses. secondly, his two best races by far were his two sprints AFTER his debut. one of which was in a very weak grade 1 race in the mud, where only one horse has really returned to do anything, and that was in another weak race with a bloated purse in the DED million. look at his two mile or longer races against top competition. her absolutely stunk in the hopeful, never running a step. then, he ran a fading third in the bc after setting the pace in what ALL of you argued was a speed favoring and totally biased track. remember that? if it was so speed favoring and biased, why didn't he hang on? all serious question marks for a horse that is going to be the heavy favorite. I will definitely pass on this guy, at least for today. if he runs a big race, I will rethink my opinion before the next derby prep.
tapiture- another short priced semi layoff horse, although I do like this one better then mandate. assmussen is much better off the layoff, and this guy does seem to be improving with each start and finished a lot stronger then most in here in his last race, closing well after being midpack into a crawling first quarter last time. he came hom in 31 3/5 pulling away over a lot slower track then mandate came home in 33 4/5. that's an eleven length switch the last 2 1/2 furlongs!! plus tapiture appears a lot more likely to be able to sit and pounce then mandate who wil probably want the lead and have a hard time getting it with kendalls boy stretching out and tanzanite cat and walt in the race. I wouldn't bet this guy to win at 3-1, but I would definitely include him in any exotics plays.
all horses coming out of the smarty jones stakes- speed dominated this race as the first three finishers ran 1-2-3 all the way. coastline ran the weakest race of the three after sitting the perfect trip and not beng able to get by either one of the other two late. this was the second straight disappointing effort for him. I bet him last time and I have seen enough. unless he floats up big time in price, I would nt even use him on my tickets anywhere. tanzanite cat and walt fought pretty much the whole race and still hel on well, althou I do think it may have been bias aided that day. if you watch the race though, they were going pretty evenly to the wire when the jock on walt went to the right handed whip and the horse shifted in late almost brushing the rail and briefly losing his action late. otherwise it would have been a head bob either way. plus walt was bellyhooked inside oh him the whole way and adds what might be much needed blinkers in here. I don't love either one of them but they both have a shot and I would lean towards walt slightly as the better of the two.
that leaves the only other runner exiting that race. the #10 horse, fire starter- I made a comment to George last tim about this hors that I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole, and I didn't. but betting the races and handicapping is all about adjustments. to me, this horse ran as well if not better then anyone in that race. it was his first start back in hobbys barn after being shipped to dutrow for one race, never a good move to play a horse exiting a juice barn after just one start. that's why I wouldn't touch him last time. he goes to dutrow for one race and he runs his eyeballs out, then ships bck and loses the juice while going back to the middle of the road trainer who had him previously. perfect time for a regression in his last if there was going to be one. but instead, he actually ran even better in the stakes debut. he was the only horse to make up any ground in the race after getting extremely rank and HTR on the first turn, costing him 3-4 lengths and poition. he still neve quit and was making up grounf into a biased track. if you liked him last time georgie, don't give up yet. plus he will be 20-1!! that's my play in the race.
kendalls boy- one I was looking at and leaning towards for a while, but the more I look, the less I like him. he ran one big bloated number first time out, that some might be fooled into getting too excited about.but it was a lightening fast track that day, and I don't think even havan has come close to repeating that number in either the champagne or the bc race. pluslook at this guys two subsequent wins. no where near that number he earned first time out. I think the 84 he earned last time is more his ceiling, and even that was in sprint and in a race wher he received no pace pressue through slow fractions. something not likely to happen today. I think he will get bet down, and though he is definitely a contender, he is a horse I think will be overbet and I will try to beat. like strong mandate, a contender who is going to fool some into over estimating them.
of the others, I know very little about the Calhoun horse other then he is in a barn that wins a lot of races with a lot cheaper stock then most. he is another who appears to be improving and can handle the extra distance. not sure about his competition he has faced though.
both paganol and bourbonize come out of races where all the speed stopped. the races just fell apart in front of them and even though they were on off tracks, they were exceptionally slow. in fact, I would play the 9 son of Dixie before the 11, bourbonize. he did all the work inside of a 4 horse duel last time and was the only survivor late in a race where closers dominated. I don't thinhe is good enough but I would play him befor the other one who beat him.
ride on curling- just a horse I have never really had a strong feeling about, but is definitely capable on his best day. don't really like him to much tough.
I will be keying the 6 and the 10 first and second in the exactas and tris with the 1.2,4,8, and 9. and pressing them with the 2. in fact if I had a mythical bankroll of say 500 dollars I would play this.......
.50 tris
6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10=30.00
1,2,4,6,8,9,10
6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10=30.00
2,6,10
2,6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10=15.00
2,6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10
2,6,10=15.00
.50 tri boxes
12610
24610
26810
26910=48.00
5.00 exactas
6 with 1248910
1248910 with 6
10 with 124689
124689 with 10=120.00
10.00 exacta box
2-6
2-10= 40.00
5.00 exacta box
6-10=10.00
40.00 wp #6
56.00 wp #10= 192.00
total 500.00
this is a very wide open race. my opinion on this race is going o differ from that of most of you, and it has nothing to do with the fact that I do not like lukas.
lets start with the favoites.
strong mandate- this horse will be 6/5 or less more then likely, and offers no value. but even worse, he is in no way a sure thing here. IF he runs his best race, he does figure to be tough, but still not a sure thing. the problem is, I doubt that will happen. first off, lukas has NEVER been known as a trainer to win first time out or fire fresh off of a layoff. he usually races his horse intoshape rather then works them. even when he was so strong back in the day with his babies, they usually improved big time second time out. look at his most recent top horses. oxbow and wtc both got better with the more racing they had. the problem with that way of training with todays horses is sometimes they go sore before they get into top condition, which is another thing lukas is famous for. over racing his horses. secondly, his two best races by far were his two sprints AFTER his debut. one of which was in a very weak grade 1 race in the mud, where only one horse has really returned to do anything, and that was in another weak race with a bloated purse in the DED million. look at his two mile or longer races against top competition. her absolutely stunk in the hopeful, never running a step. then, he ran a fading third in the bc after setting the pace in what ALL of you argued was a speed favoring and totally biased track. remember that? if it was so speed favoring and biased, why didn't he hang on? all serious question marks for a horse that is going to be the heavy favorite. I will definitely pass on this guy, at least for today. if he runs a big race, I will rethink my opinion before the next derby prep.
tapiture- another short priced semi layoff horse, although I do like this one better then mandate. assmussen is much better off the layoff, and this guy does seem to be improving with each start and finished a lot stronger then most in here in his last race, closing well after being midpack into a crawling first quarter last time. he came hom in 31 3/5 pulling away over a lot slower track then mandate came home in 33 4/5. that's an eleven length switch the last 2 1/2 furlongs!! plus tapiture appears a lot more likely to be able to sit and pounce then mandate who wil probably want the lead and have a hard time getting it with kendalls boy stretching out and tanzanite cat and walt in the race. I wouldn't bet this guy to win at 3-1, but I would definitely include him in any exotics plays.
all horses coming out of the smarty jones stakes- speed dominated this race as the first three finishers ran 1-2-3 all the way. coastline ran the weakest race of the three after sitting the perfect trip and not beng able to get by either one of the other two late. this was the second straight disappointing effort for him. I bet him last time and I have seen enough. unless he floats up big time in price, I would nt even use him on my tickets anywhere. tanzanite cat and walt fought pretty much the whole race and still hel on well, althou I do think it may have been bias aided that day. if you watch the race though, they were going pretty evenly to the wire when the jock on walt went to the right handed whip and the horse shifted in late almost brushing the rail and briefly losing his action late. otherwise it would have been a head bob either way. plus walt was bellyhooked inside oh him the whole way and adds what might be much needed blinkers in here. I don't love either one of them but they both have a shot and I would lean towards walt slightly as the better of the two.
that leaves the only other runner exiting that race. the #10 horse, fire starter- I made a comment to George last tim about this hors that I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole, and I didn't. but betting the races and handicapping is all about adjustments. to me, this horse ran as well if not better then anyone in that race. it was his first start back in hobbys barn after being shipped to dutrow for one race, never a good move to play a horse exiting a juice barn after just one start. that's why I wouldn't touch him last time. he goes to dutrow for one race and he runs his eyeballs out, then ships bck and loses the juice while going back to the middle of the road trainer who had him previously. perfect time for a regression in his last if there was going to be one. but instead, he actually ran even better in the stakes debut. he was the only horse to make up any ground in the race after getting extremely rank and HTR on the first turn, costing him 3-4 lengths and poition. he still neve quit and was making up grounf into a biased track. if you liked him last time georgie, don't give up yet. plus he will be 20-1!! that's my play in the race.
kendalls boy- one I was looking at and leaning towards for a while, but the more I look, the less I like him. he ran one big bloated number first time out, that some might be fooled into getting too excited about.but it was a lightening fast track that day, and I don't think even havan has come close to repeating that number in either the champagne or the bc race. pluslook at this guys two subsequent wins. no where near that number he earned first time out. I think the 84 he earned last time is more his ceiling, and even that was in sprint and in a race wher he received no pace pressue through slow fractions. something not likely to happen today. I think he will get bet down, and though he is definitely a contender, he is a horse I think will be overbet and I will try to beat. like strong mandate, a contender who is going to fool some into over estimating them.
of the others, I know very little about the Calhoun horse other then he is in a barn that wins a lot of races with a lot cheaper stock then most. he is another who appears to be improving and can handle the extra distance. not sure about his competition he has faced though.
both paganol and bourbonize come out of races where all the speed stopped. the races just fell apart in front of them and even though they were on off tracks, they were exceptionally slow. in fact, I would play the 9 son of Dixie before the 11, bourbonize. he did all the work inside of a 4 horse duel last time and was the only survivor late in a race where closers dominated. I don't thinhe is good enough but I would play him befor the other one who beat him.
ride on curling- just a horse I have never really had a strong feeling about, but is definitely capable on his best day. don't really like him to much tough.
I will be keying the 6 and the 10 first and second in the exactas and tris with the 1.2,4,8, and 9. and pressing them with the 2. in fact if I had a mythical bankroll of say 500 dollars I would play this.......
.50 tris
6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10=30.00
1,2,4,6,8,9,10
6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10=30.00
2,6,10
2,6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10=15.00
2,6,10
1,2,4,6,8,9,10
2,6,10=15.00
.50 tri boxes
12610
24610
26810
26910=48.00
5.00 exactas
6 with 1248910
1248910 with 6
10 with 124689
124689 with 10=120.00
10.00 exacta box
2-6
2-10= 40.00
5.00 exacta box
6-10=10.00
40.00 wp #6
56.00 wp #10= 192.00
total 500.00
