Caton Bredar's BC Notes
Oct 28, 2013 22:46:21 GMT -5
Post by Jon on Oct 28, 2013 22:46:21 GMT -5
A lady's thoughts!
Breeders' Cup Ramblings
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October 28, 2013 By Caton Bredar
With four Southern California days under my belt and the fields yet to be set for this year's Breeders' Cup, here are some random thoughts and observations.
--The song remains the same, but the weather sure doesn't. For all the years the Cup has been in California, this is the first time I remember constantly wearing a sweatshirt or jacket. Friday through Monday morning, we've had everything from fog to scattered showers (although few have actually fallen on the Santa Anita strip as of this writing) with few, if any, "ideal" sunny days. All this is particularly relevant for the horses based outside California, who, sometimes, have to contend with a dramatic change in temperatures from their home base to Santa Anita. This year, that shouldn't be a concern. Rain is in the forecast for Monday evening and Tuesday, but the good news is that it's supposed to clear out and be beautiful--moderate temperatures APPROACHING 70 degrees on both BC Friday and Saturday. This is also relevant for packing and assessing workouts; as far as I'm concerned, the track will likely be somewhat different on race days than it's been up to this point. As for that deal about it never raining in CA--this year, not so much.
--Don't believe everything you hear, especially about Sweet Reason or any horse for that matter. New York's great hope out of New York for the BC Juvenile Fillies turned in an easy, somewhat slow mile workout that had everyone scratching her off their lists. I didn't think the work was anything to write home about but also didn't think it was as bad as many made it out to be. Her most recent work in New York was said to be somewhat similar going 7 furlongs (slow, lackadaisical). They're not machines, they are horses, and each is different. Maybe she's the type that saves it for the afternoon. As for the choice of working the filly a mile, trainer Leah Gyarmati came up under Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens, who is known to do some old school, unconventional works such as a slow mile. I remember the time trainers blew horses out a day before the race (or the morning of the race) or worked miles fairly regularly. Whatever the case, the trainer was put in a position I personally think no trainer should have to be in until AFTER a horse runs...defending her training techniques and choices. She knows her horse better than anyone; if Sweet Reason was on your ticket to start with, I would definitely not throw her out off of one work. And that all applies to every trainer and workout for the Breeders' Cup; make your own opinions and don't let others sway you--especially not by second guessing the trainer.
--A few personal notes, in no particular order:
Ever Rider (Marathon) is a rock of a horse with a lot of poise, despite his lack of saddle and head gear. The horse is all muscle, covers the ground beautifully and does it effortlessly. While he's not as accomplished as his Argentinian compadre Calidiscopio, who won the race last year, he's actually better looking physically.
Clenor (Juv Fillies Turf) looked very good in her last work; one of the best of the day to my eye. She seems to be a happy filly, and with a perfect, 3 for 3 in the US combined with European experience, she'll be one of my key horses in that race most likely (although I haven't seen most of the East Coast contingent yet).
Both Beholder and Authenticity look as good as horses can look right now; if you had to handicap the Distaff off looks--it would be a dead heat. I expect no less from Beholder, given her form this year and the fact she's trained by Dick Mandella--who excels at BC in his backyard. Authenticity, on the other hand, is a little surprising as she's never bowled me over in her training. My descriptions of her in the past would include the word "workmanlike". My description of her here at Santa Anita, especially her most recent works in company with We Miss Artie would include the word "wow". Worth noting that Pletcher typically keeps his BC horses in New York until the last minute; a small number including this mare have been in CA for nearly a month.
Untapable (Juvy Fillies) has looked mature, consistent, healthy, happy, good every day. She may be growing into herself at exactly the right time, and she's so far done everything that's been asked of her--even if she was still growing and learning.
I don't know if she can win again, but I have to agree with Buff Bradley when he says Groupie Doll (Filly & Mare Sprint) is better than she was last year. She's all race horse, mentally more focused and in peak condition. She may have to be better, though, as she's facing a tougher field.
In the same race, a horse under the radar (because we often don't talk about a horse we rarely see) is Ismene. Named for the Greek goddess who was, like the dam's name, "Never to Excess", Ismene appeared just the opposite in her pre-dawn workout Sunday, like a rocket in the dark. The Bill Spawr charge (who developed Amazombie) believes she's training well and will be the speed in a race possibly not as speed loaded as you might think. Interesting long shot play in my opinion.
Caracortado (Turf Sprint) looks the best he's ever looked. His breeze on the grass over the weekend (atypical, he usually breezes on the main track) was extremely good.
Tap It Rich (Juvenile) has talent and the look of greatness. That said, he also has the look of green-ness and is one I will likely take a stand against as he tries to buck history by winning the BC in only his second start. He may be good enough physically; everything I see in the morning tells me he's not good enough mentally quite yet.
I didn't see it myself, but a reliable little NY birdie told me Chad Brown was grinning ear to ear after Big Blue Kitten's work (Turf). I know I said you shouldn't rely on others opinions, but with a fleet of outstanding runners in the Cup, the fact that one horse stood out for Brown speaks volumes in my opinion. Can't wait to see what he looks like here in California. The horse, that is--not Chad Brown.
The first day I was in town, I saw a good looking horse that I couldn't identify and made a note to find out who it was. Really caught my eye as a happy, good looking horse. It was Bright Thought (Mile). Take it for what it's worth.
I thought Mucho Macho Man was the horse to beat in the Classic after watching him work Saturday. Then I watched Moreno. And then Monday morning, I watched Game On Dude. I haven't seen defending race winner Fort Larned, or my personal favorite horse Palace Malice yet, so I don't know what to think anymore. Barring anything unforeseen over the next few days, I believe the trio I've seen will run huge races, and if the others show up as they have in the past, we're in for a real treat.
Breeders' Cup Ramblings
Xpressbet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
October 28, 2013 By Caton Bredar
With four Southern California days under my belt and the fields yet to be set for this year's Breeders' Cup, here are some random thoughts and observations.
--The song remains the same, but the weather sure doesn't. For all the years the Cup has been in California, this is the first time I remember constantly wearing a sweatshirt or jacket. Friday through Monday morning, we've had everything from fog to scattered showers (although few have actually fallen on the Santa Anita strip as of this writing) with few, if any, "ideal" sunny days. All this is particularly relevant for the horses based outside California, who, sometimes, have to contend with a dramatic change in temperatures from their home base to Santa Anita. This year, that shouldn't be a concern. Rain is in the forecast for Monday evening and Tuesday, but the good news is that it's supposed to clear out and be beautiful--moderate temperatures APPROACHING 70 degrees on both BC Friday and Saturday. This is also relevant for packing and assessing workouts; as far as I'm concerned, the track will likely be somewhat different on race days than it's been up to this point. As for that deal about it never raining in CA--this year, not so much.
--Don't believe everything you hear, especially about Sweet Reason or any horse for that matter. New York's great hope out of New York for the BC Juvenile Fillies turned in an easy, somewhat slow mile workout that had everyone scratching her off their lists. I didn't think the work was anything to write home about but also didn't think it was as bad as many made it out to be. Her most recent work in New York was said to be somewhat similar going 7 furlongs (slow, lackadaisical). They're not machines, they are horses, and each is different. Maybe she's the type that saves it for the afternoon. As for the choice of working the filly a mile, trainer Leah Gyarmati came up under Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens, who is known to do some old school, unconventional works such as a slow mile. I remember the time trainers blew horses out a day before the race (or the morning of the race) or worked miles fairly regularly. Whatever the case, the trainer was put in a position I personally think no trainer should have to be in until AFTER a horse runs...defending her training techniques and choices. She knows her horse better than anyone; if Sweet Reason was on your ticket to start with, I would definitely not throw her out off of one work. And that all applies to every trainer and workout for the Breeders' Cup; make your own opinions and don't let others sway you--especially not by second guessing the trainer.
--A few personal notes, in no particular order:
Ever Rider (Marathon) is a rock of a horse with a lot of poise, despite his lack of saddle and head gear. The horse is all muscle, covers the ground beautifully and does it effortlessly. While he's not as accomplished as his Argentinian compadre Calidiscopio, who won the race last year, he's actually better looking physically.
Clenor (Juv Fillies Turf) looked very good in her last work; one of the best of the day to my eye. She seems to be a happy filly, and with a perfect, 3 for 3 in the US combined with European experience, she'll be one of my key horses in that race most likely (although I haven't seen most of the East Coast contingent yet).
Both Beholder and Authenticity look as good as horses can look right now; if you had to handicap the Distaff off looks--it would be a dead heat. I expect no less from Beholder, given her form this year and the fact she's trained by Dick Mandella--who excels at BC in his backyard. Authenticity, on the other hand, is a little surprising as she's never bowled me over in her training. My descriptions of her in the past would include the word "workmanlike". My description of her here at Santa Anita, especially her most recent works in company with We Miss Artie would include the word "wow". Worth noting that Pletcher typically keeps his BC horses in New York until the last minute; a small number including this mare have been in CA for nearly a month.
Untapable (Juvy Fillies) has looked mature, consistent, healthy, happy, good every day. She may be growing into herself at exactly the right time, and she's so far done everything that's been asked of her--even if she was still growing and learning.
I don't know if she can win again, but I have to agree with Buff Bradley when he says Groupie Doll (Filly & Mare Sprint) is better than she was last year. She's all race horse, mentally more focused and in peak condition. She may have to be better, though, as she's facing a tougher field.
In the same race, a horse under the radar (because we often don't talk about a horse we rarely see) is Ismene. Named for the Greek goddess who was, like the dam's name, "Never to Excess", Ismene appeared just the opposite in her pre-dawn workout Sunday, like a rocket in the dark. The Bill Spawr charge (who developed Amazombie) believes she's training well and will be the speed in a race possibly not as speed loaded as you might think. Interesting long shot play in my opinion.
Caracortado (Turf Sprint) looks the best he's ever looked. His breeze on the grass over the weekend (atypical, he usually breezes on the main track) was extremely good.
Tap It Rich (Juvenile) has talent and the look of greatness. That said, he also has the look of green-ness and is one I will likely take a stand against as he tries to buck history by winning the BC in only his second start. He may be good enough physically; everything I see in the morning tells me he's not good enough mentally quite yet.
I didn't see it myself, but a reliable little NY birdie told me Chad Brown was grinning ear to ear after Big Blue Kitten's work (Turf). I know I said you shouldn't rely on others opinions, but with a fleet of outstanding runners in the Cup, the fact that one horse stood out for Brown speaks volumes in my opinion. Can't wait to see what he looks like here in California. The horse, that is--not Chad Brown.
The first day I was in town, I saw a good looking horse that I couldn't identify and made a note to find out who it was. Really caught my eye as a happy, good looking horse. It was Bright Thought (Mile). Take it for what it's worth.
I thought Mucho Macho Man was the horse to beat in the Classic after watching him work Saturday. Then I watched Moreno. And then Monday morning, I watched Game On Dude. I haven't seen defending race winner Fort Larned, or my personal favorite horse Palace Malice yet, so I don't know what to think anymore. Barring anything unforeseen over the next few days, I believe the trio I've seen will run huge races, and if the others show up as they have in the past, we're in for a real treat.
