Sunday: 3 G1's 1 G2, 1 G3
Oct 26, 2013 21:49:44 GMT -5
Post by Evelyn on Oct 26, 2013 21:49:44 GMT -5
North of the Border
Paul;ick Report
The Breeders’ Cup looms just a week away, but there’s top-notch racing this weekend across the border with big fields and the potential for building Breeders’ Cup bankrolls.
Sunday at Woodbine, the turf course gets a workout from international shippers and domestic types alike in a pair of Grade 1 races – the E.P. Taylor and the Canadian International.
Elsewhere, bettors will be busy trying to decipher graded stakes races on the final weekend at Keeneland, at Belmont Park, and at Santa Anita, the host site once again for the Breeders’ Cup.
Last weekend, Team Paulick chalked up a victory as Scott Jagow scored with 11-1 longshot Madame Cactus in the Lexus Raven Run Stakes. The 3-year-old filly returned $127 on Jagow’s $100 fictional bankroll.
Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com
Fayette Stakes, Keeneland, Grade 2, 1 1/8 Miles
For trainer Charles LoPresti, this race may well be an instance of ‘no Dan, no problem.’ LoPresti won the Fayette in 2010 with Successful Dan, and then came back and won it again the next year with Wise Dan. This time around, both Dans are unavailable to participate. One is getting a brief respite; the other is preparing to defend his crown in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. With those two looking elsewhere, the stable has called on #1 VILLANDRY to step up and try to give LoPresti a third Fayette win. VILLANDRY has already won going this distance at Keeneland and ran well in a sprint allowance here earlier in the meet while coming off an 11-month layoff. I think the seven-furlong distance that day was simply too short for him, but I also think that race will have tightened the screws and readied him to fire a big one this time around. Lopresti’s numbers in sprint-to-route and second-off-the-layoff scenarios are incredibly strong, and at 8/1 on the morning line this horse is a steal. The majority of his counterparts in here show spotty recent form, and with VILLANDRY you’re getting a horse that loves the distance and is right at home around this oval. I’ll also use him in an exacta with #9 WINNING CAUSE, who is 3-for-4 at Keeneland, and #8 LEA, who has been knocking heads with the likes of Wise Dan and Justin Phillip.
The Play: $40 Win #1 Villandry ($40); $5 Exacta Key Box #1 Villandry / #8 Lea, #9 Winning Cause ($20)
Pattison Canadian International Stakes, Grade 1, 1 1/2 Miles Turf
Even while competing virtually head-to-head with the Breeders’ Cup Turf, this year’s Pattison Canadian International drew a powerful field of 11, with Europe well represented with 3 starters. My top choice in here plays for the home team, though. #8 FORTE DEI MARMI is a force on the Woodbine turf course, having won 4-of-7 starts on it, including three straight graded stakes races. He was a close-up 3rd in last year’s International, a race in which #5 JOSHUA TREE took the field wire-to-wire. JOSHUA TREE is back again this year, and everyone knows he adores this oval. He has won this race twice previously – and ran second another time – and always brings his ‘A-game’ to Woodbine. He’s impossible to discount, especially with a top international rider like Ryan Moore in the saddle. Finally, I’m giving a look to #11 SLUMBER. He stepped up into Grade 1 company last time out with moderate success in Belmont’s Turf Classic, and his closing kick should appreciate the long Woodbine stretch. Plus with the potent combo of Bill Mott and Mike Smith in his corner, you’d be tossing him at your peril.
The Play: $10 Win #8 Forte Dei Marmi ($10); $5 Exacta Box #5 Joshua Tree, #8 Forte Dei Marmi, #11 Slumber ($30)
Paulick Report Handicapper: Scott Jagow, Editor-in-Chief
Autumn Miss Stakes, Santa Anita, Grade 3, 1 Mile Turf
The question in this race is: Did favorite WISHING GATE move up because of the Del Mar turf or is she just an improving 3-year-old with tons of potential? I’m banking on the latter. The daughter of Indian Charlie’s form dramatically improved in her previous two races – both on the Del Mar turf – but the fact that she was narrowly defeated in her last by top-notch filly Discreet Marq makes me think she’s figured things out. In an 11-horse field, she’s the kind of favorite to play with instead of against. I like a trio of fillies here to make it a race, so I’ll play an exacta key.
The Play: $10 exacta key, #10 Wishing Gate/#5 Oscar Party, #9 Need You Now, #11 Journey On ($30)
EP Taylor Stakes, Woodbine, Grade 1, 1 1/4 Miles Turf
Tough race, but I like the two Michael Matz runners who finished one-two in the Canadian Stakes last month at Woodbine. MINAKSHI won off a bit of a layoff and COLONIAL FLAG raced wide but almost caught her. I lean toward Colonial Flag, but I also like MOMENT IN TIME, an Irish-bred whose form is only sullied by two recent performances in Group 1 company in England. Sounds like an exacta box to me.
The Play: $5 Exacta box, #2 Colonial Flag/#4 Minakshi/#5 Moment In Time ($30)
Canadian International, Woodbine, Grade 1, 1 1/2 Miles Turf
Whether he’s the favorite or not, JOSHUA TREE is the horse to beat. He’s only raced three times in North America amid 26 career races, and all three starts have come in this event. Oh, and he’s won twice and finished 2nd the other time. Sounds like a play against? What the heck. I’ll take a shot with NOW WE CAN, a German-bred whose 2nd-place finish at Longchamp last month looks pretty good, since it was to Orfevre, 2nd-place finisher in the Arc de Triomphe and last year’s Japan Cup.
The Play: $20 to win, #7 Now We Can, $10 exacta box, Now We Can/#5 Joshua Tree ($40)
Paul;ick Report
The Breeders’ Cup looms just a week away, but there’s top-notch racing this weekend across the border with big fields and the potential for building Breeders’ Cup bankrolls.
Sunday at Woodbine, the turf course gets a workout from international shippers and domestic types alike in a pair of Grade 1 races – the E.P. Taylor and the Canadian International.
Elsewhere, bettors will be busy trying to decipher graded stakes races on the final weekend at Keeneland, at Belmont Park, and at Santa Anita, the host site once again for the Breeders’ Cup.
Last weekend, Team Paulick chalked up a victory as Scott Jagow scored with 11-1 longshot Madame Cactus in the Lexus Raven Run Stakes. The 3-year-old filly returned $127 on Jagow’s $100 fictional bankroll.
Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com
Fayette Stakes, Keeneland, Grade 2, 1 1/8 Miles
For trainer Charles LoPresti, this race may well be an instance of ‘no Dan, no problem.’ LoPresti won the Fayette in 2010 with Successful Dan, and then came back and won it again the next year with Wise Dan. This time around, both Dans are unavailable to participate. One is getting a brief respite; the other is preparing to defend his crown in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. With those two looking elsewhere, the stable has called on #1 VILLANDRY to step up and try to give LoPresti a third Fayette win. VILLANDRY has already won going this distance at Keeneland and ran well in a sprint allowance here earlier in the meet while coming off an 11-month layoff. I think the seven-furlong distance that day was simply too short for him, but I also think that race will have tightened the screws and readied him to fire a big one this time around. Lopresti’s numbers in sprint-to-route and second-off-the-layoff scenarios are incredibly strong, and at 8/1 on the morning line this horse is a steal. The majority of his counterparts in here show spotty recent form, and with VILLANDRY you’re getting a horse that loves the distance and is right at home around this oval. I’ll also use him in an exacta with #9 WINNING CAUSE, who is 3-for-4 at Keeneland, and #8 LEA, who has been knocking heads with the likes of Wise Dan and Justin Phillip.
The Play: $40 Win #1 Villandry ($40); $5 Exacta Key Box #1 Villandry / #8 Lea, #9 Winning Cause ($20)
Pattison Canadian International Stakes, Grade 1, 1 1/2 Miles Turf
Even while competing virtually head-to-head with the Breeders’ Cup Turf, this year’s Pattison Canadian International drew a powerful field of 11, with Europe well represented with 3 starters. My top choice in here plays for the home team, though. #8 FORTE DEI MARMI is a force on the Woodbine turf course, having won 4-of-7 starts on it, including three straight graded stakes races. He was a close-up 3rd in last year’s International, a race in which #5 JOSHUA TREE took the field wire-to-wire. JOSHUA TREE is back again this year, and everyone knows he adores this oval. He has won this race twice previously – and ran second another time – and always brings his ‘A-game’ to Woodbine. He’s impossible to discount, especially with a top international rider like Ryan Moore in the saddle. Finally, I’m giving a look to #11 SLUMBER. He stepped up into Grade 1 company last time out with moderate success in Belmont’s Turf Classic, and his closing kick should appreciate the long Woodbine stretch. Plus with the potent combo of Bill Mott and Mike Smith in his corner, you’d be tossing him at your peril.
The Play: $10 Win #8 Forte Dei Marmi ($10); $5 Exacta Box #5 Joshua Tree, #8 Forte Dei Marmi, #11 Slumber ($30)
Paulick Report Handicapper: Scott Jagow, Editor-in-Chief
Autumn Miss Stakes, Santa Anita, Grade 3, 1 Mile Turf
The question in this race is: Did favorite WISHING GATE move up because of the Del Mar turf or is she just an improving 3-year-old with tons of potential? I’m banking on the latter. The daughter of Indian Charlie’s form dramatically improved in her previous two races – both on the Del Mar turf – but the fact that she was narrowly defeated in her last by top-notch filly Discreet Marq makes me think she’s figured things out. In an 11-horse field, she’s the kind of favorite to play with instead of against. I like a trio of fillies here to make it a race, so I’ll play an exacta key.
The Play: $10 exacta key, #10 Wishing Gate/#5 Oscar Party, #9 Need You Now, #11 Journey On ($30)
EP Taylor Stakes, Woodbine, Grade 1, 1 1/4 Miles Turf
Tough race, but I like the two Michael Matz runners who finished one-two in the Canadian Stakes last month at Woodbine. MINAKSHI won off a bit of a layoff and COLONIAL FLAG raced wide but almost caught her. I lean toward Colonial Flag, but I also like MOMENT IN TIME, an Irish-bred whose form is only sullied by two recent performances in Group 1 company in England. Sounds like an exacta box to me.
The Play: $5 Exacta box, #2 Colonial Flag/#4 Minakshi/#5 Moment In Time ($30)
Canadian International, Woodbine, Grade 1, 1 1/2 Miles Turf
Whether he’s the favorite or not, JOSHUA TREE is the horse to beat. He’s only raced three times in North America amid 26 career races, and all three starts have come in this event. Oh, and he’s won twice and finished 2nd the other time. Sounds like a play against? What the heck. I’ll take a shot with NOW WE CAN, a German-bred whose 2nd-place finish at Longchamp last month looks pretty good, since it was to Orfevre, 2nd-place finisher in the Arc de Triomphe and last year’s Japan Cup.
The Play: $20 to win, #7 Now We Can, $10 exacta box, Now We Can/#5 Joshua Tree ($40)