Road to the Kentucky Derby has a new map
Jan 18, 2013 0:23:07 GMT -5
Post by Jon on Jan 18, 2013 0:23:07 GMT -5
01/17/2013 4:10PM
Road to the Kentucky Derby has a new map
By Jay Privman
Shanghai Bobby has won the Hopeful Stakes, the Champagne Stakes, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and is the overwhelming favorite to be named champion 2-year-old of 2012 when the Eclipse Awards are held Saturday, Jan. 19, at Gulfstream Park. Yet in terms of eligibility for the May 4 Kentucky Derby, this accomplished, decorated colt is a mere 20 points in front of horses who have never even raced.
After more than 25 years of using graded stakes earnings as the criterion for entry to oversubscribed fields for the Derby, Churchill Downs has switched to a system based on points, one that discounts 2-year-old form and turf races, eliminates sprints and races restricted to fillies, and puts a premium on the final two rounds of Derby preps, beginning in late February.
Cash is no longer king. It’s a new world, with nuances that trainers with Derby prospects are seeking to comprehend.
“The approach I’m taking is that I’m trying not to worry too much about it,” said Todd Pletcher, who trains Shanghai Bobby and several other top Derby contenders, such as Overanalyze and Violence. “You have to manage your horse the way you normally would and hope you earn enough points to get in.”
That said, Pletcher – who won the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 – realizes that a subpar race close to the Derby could be catastrophic.
“You certainly don’t want that if you don’t have enough points,” Pletcher said. “A lot of horses have flopped in their final Derby prep and gone on to win the Derby. The key is to have enough points before the flop.”
[MORE: Kentucky Derby prep schedule | Kentucky Derby point standings]
Under the new system, the Florida Derby is one of seven races offering the maximum amount of points to the Derby. Those races are worth 170 points, with 100 to the winner, 40 to second, 20 to third, and 10 to fourth. In years past, Pletcher said he figured about $200,000 in graded earnings usually was needed to make the Derby, which is restricted to 20 runners. He thinks the equivalent now will be about 40 points. But like everyone else, he’s guessing.
“The way the program was set up before, if you finished 1-2-3 in that final round of preps, and you had earned something else along the way, you were in, and it might be close to the same now,” Pletcher said. “If the same group of horses is earning points, you might have six to eight with 200 points, and then a big drop off. It’s hard to get a line on what the magic point number will be, the number that will be what $200,000 in earnings was before. I’m guessing 40 points or so, but I don’t know.”
No one does.
“I think it’s going to take a couple of years for trainers to fully grasp this,” said Rick Hammerle, racing secretary at Santa Anita, whose Santa Anita Derby is one of the races offering 100 points to the winner.
The most significant change is that not a single spot in the Derby field is already taken. In the past, the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, CashCall Futurity, and Delta Downs Jackpot would already have enough cash to make the Derby field. Now, because the final round of preps are so much more important, there is the likelihood that many more trainers will point to those races, and their field sizes will swell.
“No question,” said Nick Zito, a two-time Derby winner. “If you want to participate in the Derby, you have to backload it. You have to be careful which prep you go in, because you could blow it all in one race.
“But if you win the Fountain of Youth,” Zito said, referring to one of eight Derby preps worth 50 points to the winner, “you’re probably in. If you get to Florida Derby Day without enough points, you could blow your chance. But if you run second in the Florida Derby, you’re probably in.”
The importance of the final round of prep races also might force trainers to think about shipping to a wider range of locales for opportunities to accumulate the most points.
“I think you will see some horses go west who normally would have stayed in the East,” Zito said.
“Before the Breeders’ Cup, there’s not a lot of movement with the 2-year-olds,” Hammerle said. “For the most part, the New York horses stay in New York, the Kentucky horses stay in Kentucky. I think this might encourage trainers to head somewhere else to take a shot at points
www.drf.com/news/road-kentucky-derby-has-new-map
Road to the Kentucky Derby has a new map
By Jay Privman
Shanghai Bobby has won the Hopeful Stakes, the Champagne Stakes, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and is the overwhelming favorite to be named champion 2-year-old of 2012 when the Eclipse Awards are held Saturday, Jan. 19, at Gulfstream Park. Yet in terms of eligibility for the May 4 Kentucky Derby, this accomplished, decorated colt is a mere 20 points in front of horses who have never even raced.
After more than 25 years of using graded stakes earnings as the criterion for entry to oversubscribed fields for the Derby, Churchill Downs has switched to a system based on points, one that discounts 2-year-old form and turf races, eliminates sprints and races restricted to fillies, and puts a premium on the final two rounds of Derby preps, beginning in late February.
Cash is no longer king. It’s a new world, with nuances that trainers with Derby prospects are seeking to comprehend.
“The approach I’m taking is that I’m trying not to worry too much about it,” said Todd Pletcher, who trains Shanghai Bobby and several other top Derby contenders, such as Overanalyze and Violence. “You have to manage your horse the way you normally would and hope you earn enough points to get in.”
That said, Pletcher – who won the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 – realizes that a subpar race close to the Derby could be catastrophic.
“You certainly don’t want that if you don’t have enough points,” Pletcher said. “A lot of horses have flopped in their final Derby prep and gone on to win the Derby. The key is to have enough points before the flop.”
[MORE: Kentucky Derby prep schedule | Kentucky Derby point standings]
Under the new system, the Florida Derby is one of seven races offering the maximum amount of points to the Derby. Those races are worth 170 points, with 100 to the winner, 40 to second, 20 to third, and 10 to fourth. In years past, Pletcher said he figured about $200,000 in graded earnings usually was needed to make the Derby, which is restricted to 20 runners. He thinks the equivalent now will be about 40 points. But like everyone else, he’s guessing.
“The way the program was set up before, if you finished 1-2-3 in that final round of preps, and you had earned something else along the way, you were in, and it might be close to the same now,” Pletcher said. “If the same group of horses is earning points, you might have six to eight with 200 points, and then a big drop off. It’s hard to get a line on what the magic point number will be, the number that will be what $200,000 in earnings was before. I’m guessing 40 points or so, but I don’t know.”
No one does.
“I think it’s going to take a couple of years for trainers to fully grasp this,” said Rick Hammerle, racing secretary at Santa Anita, whose Santa Anita Derby is one of the races offering 100 points to the winner.
The most significant change is that not a single spot in the Derby field is already taken. In the past, the winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, CashCall Futurity, and Delta Downs Jackpot would already have enough cash to make the Derby field. Now, because the final round of preps are so much more important, there is the likelihood that many more trainers will point to those races, and their field sizes will swell.
“No question,” said Nick Zito, a two-time Derby winner. “If you want to participate in the Derby, you have to backload it. You have to be careful which prep you go in, because you could blow it all in one race.
“But if you win the Fountain of Youth,” Zito said, referring to one of eight Derby preps worth 50 points to the winner, “you’re probably in. If you get to Florida Derby Day without enough points, you could blow your chance. But if you run second in the Florida Derby, you’re probably in.”
The importance of the final round of prep races also might force trainers to think about shipping to a wider range of locales for opportunities to accumulate the most points.
“I think you will see some horses go west who normally would have stayed in the East,” Zito said.
“Before the Breeders’ Cup, there’s not a lot of movement with the 2-year-olds,” Hammerle said. “For the most part, the New York horses stay in New York, the Kentucky horses stay in Kentucky. I think this might encourage trainers to head somewhere else to take a shot at points
www.drf.com/news/road-kentucky-derby-has-new-map