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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 22:49:46 GMT -5
and once again, I have never seen the words mortal lock, cinch, and monster used so loosely
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Post by bloodstock64 on Jun 6, 2013 23:30:19 GMT -5
May jump back on Vyjack. Rudy juice may sing New York New York.
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 7, 2013 1:13:54 GMT -5
Nick that's just it. I don't think he ran bad at all in the Peter Pan considering it was his first start in top graded company. We're seeing a horse who is improving and will move up at the distance. I think he handled the sloppy track in the Peter Pan fine but just wasn't as accustomed to having the mud hitting him in the face. Still, he made a pretty good run to finish fifth beaten as I pointed out only a slim margin for show money. He's got plenty of room to improve off of that effort but believe me, if I'm wrong, I have no problem taking the heat and letting everyone know why I was wrong. I did like Palace Malice in the Derby but feel he was taken completely out of his game going to the front and setting those suicidal fractions. Hopefully we'll see him be allowed to relax early in the Belmont. And for the record, don't think for a second that I've abandoned my boy, Orb. I'm not picking him to win but I do believe that he is the horse to beat. I fully expect him to rebound off of his poor effort in the Preakness. Whether that will be good enough to win remains to be seen. But like I said, the mile and 1/2 distance of the Belmont is an anomaly these days in American Racing so truly anything can and often does happen.
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Post by eliteone on Jun 7, 2013 8:13:57 GMT -5
We here at Quantum U see Freedom Child as a paper tiger. He was drifting out at 1 1/8th even though he was all alone. When he puts on the 10 lbs and adds 3/8ths and has Gary breathing on him he's lucky if he finishes. He also had his preferred surface. FC will be a factor in the race and then fade.
Gary Stevens is going to go all out to get the lead here. Palace Malice should be sitting in the cats cradle and blow past them just into the far turn.
A good number of storm paths here at Quantum U are showing Golden Soul and Oxbow second and third.
Should Palace move TOO early and face MAXIMUM resistance, some charts show him life and death with Golden Soul. Even losing to GS on a few storm paths. Weighing horseflesh show more of an open length win by Palace Malice.
One thing is for sure. If Palace Malace does win it then we may finally see an elevation of this crop. Being from Curlin the sky is the limit. Palace still has that Quantum Potential to be a good one.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 7, 2013 22:13:21 GMT -5
We here at Quantum U see Freedom Child as a paper tiger. He was drifting out at 1 1/8th even though he was all alone. When he puts on the 10 lbs and adds 3/8ths and has Gary breathing on him he's lucky if he finishes. He also had his preferred surface. FC will be a factor in the race and then fade. Gary Stevens is going to go all out to get the lead here. Palace Malice should be sitting in the cats cradle and blow past them just into the far turn. A good number of storm paths here at Quantum U are showing Golden Soul and Oxbow second and third. Should Palace move TOO early and face MAXIMUM resistance, some charts show him life and death with Golden Soul. Even losing to GS on a few storm paths. Weighing horseflesh show more of an open length win by Palace Malice. One thing is for sure. If Palace Malace does win it then we may finally see an elevation of this crop. Being from Curlin the sky is the limit. Palace still has that Quantum Potential to be a good one. Freedom Chlld cannot be evaluated as a paper tiger or the real deal yet off of his Past Performances. He is one or the other but any judgment at this time is pure speculation. He has not yet disproved that he is not a true class horse and possibly the best of this 3yo bunch. Therefore he is the horse to beat as all the others have already proved that they are very limited. Golden Soul is a sucker bet just like Java's War. A very deep closer at 1 1/8 mile who your typical inexperienced gambler extrapolates to mean that he will close even better at 1 1/2 mile since it is a longer race. No it don't work like that. Just look at 4 races back at 1mi 70 yds at FG where finished 11 lengths behind Oxbow after running 7 lengths off all the way around. That is the true Golden Soul. Besides Revolutionary is a much better horse than Golden Soul so that bumps Golden Soul out of the top finishers right there. Oxbow does not have any ability whatsoever to battle for the lead at 1 1/2 with Freedom Child or Palace Malice nor does he have the turn of foot to run anything down at the end. You can just forget about that scenario. |
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 7, 2013 22:45:33 GMT -5
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 8, 2013 0:45:41 GMT -5
dude listen to yourself. you make no sense and contradict yourself at every turn. in one sentence you say freedom child is not a paper tiger and cannot be evaluated as one at this time and everything is pure speculation with him. then in another post or even sentence on the same post, you say he is the horse to beat and a guarantee to be in the top three along with pm. which one is it? you are absolutely cracked in the head dude, reguardless of what happens tomorrow. now I know how you won that 16k on Preakness day. like the old saying goes, god takes care of the stupid!! lol
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Post by eliteone on Jun 8, 2013 8:58:00 GMT -5
On Incognito...We do not find fault with anyone going this direction is a race like this. That being said, we personally wouldn't bet him, even with Whiz's money.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 8, 2013 11:04:56 GMT -5
dude listen to yourself. you make no sense and contradict yourself at every turn. in one sentence you say freedom child is not a paper tiger and cannot be evaluated as one at this time and everything is pure speculation with him. then in another post or even sentence on the same post, you say he is the horse to beat and a guarantee to be in the top three along with pm. which one is it? you are absolutely cracked in the head dude, reguardless of what happens tomorrow. now I know how you won that 16k on Preakness day. like the old saying goes, god takes care of the stupid!! lol That was good for a good laugh. Thanks  Hey I don,t have to make perfect sense. This is horse racing and sometimes picking horses can lead to a few contradictions.  As long as you get the winner in the end  He is the only horse that has not proven who he is yet and therefore can be anything based on this PP's. The others have already showed who they are. Freedom Child has never really ran a bad race yet other than his first race out and has never got beaten badly by real class horse, except for the Wood where he was declared a non-starter because the starter held him by the neck out the gate. The others in the race have got beat by class horses when the were put in over their heads. Freedom Child has yet to run a bad race. That is why he could be very good. Any horse that wins by 13 in the Peter Pan must be a really good horse. There were some pretty good horses in that race. That was no easy or fluke race. That race confirmed his class and that his 2nd place finish to Orb after leading him all the way around with Revolutionary 3rd as a 2yo was not just by luck. It was because he is on the level of an Orb and Revolutionary. I look for past good races a horse ran against class horses and look for follow up races which confirm those previous races were valid in regards to indicating what class level a horse has. Freedom Child has now double confirmed that that 2yo race was a valid indication that he is really on the same level of class as Orb and Revolutionary and the Peter Pan has also validated that his front running style in that the front running 2yo race is his true running style and that he has the ability to carry himself at a long distance so is better overall horse than Revolutionary and Orb the longer they go. That is it in a nutshell. |
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 8, 2013 12:08:54 GMT -5
We can agree to disagree on this one Nick. I'll take the 20-1 odds on a horse who is improving with every start, has the right pedigree, the righf running style, the right connections and one who's been training great coming into the race. I've liked this horse for the Belmont for a while now and nothing I've seen has changed my mind. And for the record, the Sheikhs have not been totally without success in the Triple Crown. Bernardini and Jazil are a testament to that.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 8, 2013 12:38:45 GMT -5
Incognito could happen this is a horse race after all. I just think the Sheik just wants to have something to run today in the Belmont and he is taking a shot. Good luck.
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cait
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Post by cait on Jun 8, 2013 13:04:40 GMT -5
well now, track is improving - that's encouraging - ya know, we keep saying this is a slow bunch but the fact is all horses are running slower than the past - is it the track surfaces? this bunch is fairly "equal" so racing luck is going to be a factor what looks like will be the scenario on paper may not be the way it plays out - none of them look great on paper! really think this is a race to study the post parade - rationally (lol) think it comes down to orb and oxbow based on what's happened so far, the connections, the home track advantage for orb and so forth - think this a race where those split second jock decisions will play a major role - both have excellent smart jocks - sure - it's a field where anyone could jump up and surprise - now - as to my irrational pick? - just saw an interview with mcpeek - the 1 post is bad - simple as that - the plan to go to the lead? dunno - depends on how garcia uses his head clock - frac d is bred to run all day but he's never been a front running sort - and he is apparently a bit of a bad boy head case (yeah - my kinda guy lol) maybe they should see if prozac is allowed? along that same vein - will look more at the girls UB and rosie but am not sure if she's entered because hometown mike likes a party and to swing for the fences or because her connections really think she has a shot - she's a big girl but she's not rags to riches nick - i can't put as much emphasis on 2 yr old races as you do - the peter pan has always been a decent prep but this year's peter pan is not a gauge for me - not a great field, ridiculously bad track and many were prepping so the run away win is not that impressive to me because no one even tried to close the gap as they were not going to go all out with the belmont the goal - it may have been a great "grow up" prep for incognito - i do like when horses have had a run over the track - so - not sure who i'm playing - lol i will include the gorgeous gray in boxes - yeah wiz - i do like him lol - and i might throw in the girls just for the hell of it because of rosie as i think she has proven to make a difference this track will be changing as the day moves forward - will be good to see how speed's holding up in the races right before the big one GL to all! Hope everyone has a successful day and cashes many tickets! |
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 8, 2013 13:20:05 GMT -5
cait: I can't see Frac D making the lead. He just doesn't have the speed and to take him out of his game would be a mistake IMO. This is a wide open affair on paper at least and it's one of those races where you could run it 10 different times and probably get 10 distinctly different results. I wouldn't begrudge anybody's opinion one way or the other. The only horses that I see as absolute tosses are Freedom Child, Oxbow and the filly, Unlimited Budget. Aside from that, it's a murky one.
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Nostradamus
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man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 8, 2013 13:20:22 GMT -5
wow cap, you bash shooter for looking for a diamond in the rough, but what are you doing? and at least he isn't 10% as obnoxious about it. you keep throwing the same facts out, which basically mean nothing other then what you want to believe. these horses that you are using to determine freedoms ability, comparing them to him, are nobodys. coide west, bellamarine, saint vigeur, where are they? they are all healthy. why are they not in the big races? because they don't belong. freedom has never won a race that contained a real tc threat. I hate to knock someone who just made a big score like you did in the Preakness, but man your way of handicapping is priceless. Just trying to create a little controversy and make the race more interesting. Looks like its working |
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cait
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Post by cait on Jun 8, 2013 13:43:04 GMT -5
yeah shoot - am hoping the "gun from one" simply means get him off the rail, not necessarily get the lead - tossing oxbow is a mistake m'dear - ask ev lol
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 8, 2013 18:35:17 GMT -5
well crap and freedom performed just about how they figured. beaten 58 and 60 lengths. I wish could have handicapped the racfe backwards too. first three throwouts in order were crap, taboo, and freedom.
unfortunately for me, oxbow got me again. he wasn't a throwout for me by any means, but you can only play so many contenders, especially when three of them are 2-1, 9-2, and whatever oxbow went off at. I thought I was getting it all when they turned for home, as oxbow looked like he was done.
I did make a little for the day as I had the p4 3 times and bet both palace and golden soul to win, but really under achieved. just the exacta for 15 dollars with oxbow would have been nice.
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 8, 2013 19:04:43 GMT -5
I was wrong Cait. Oxbow has proven himself a legitimate as did Orb. Both are just tired horses at this point. Three tough races in five weeks for both. Hopefully all will stay healthy through the summer and fall.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 8, 2013 19:23:05 GMT -5
I hope they do too shooter. will create the best betting angle there is in horse racing. bet against any horse that ran in all three tc races in their next start, including winners and losers. they always show up as short priced favorites dropping in class supposedly and are very beatable.
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