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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 2:51:21 GMT -5
just now looking at the pp's for the Belmont and things are jumping off the page at me. for a month ive been hearing about freedom child, not knowing what he looked like. well this is what I see....... a horse who has never been competitive in a race where he didn't make the lead. a horse who has beaten ONE good horse in his entire career, in a race 9 months ago while still not winning the race, in a one turn mile where he was unpressured on a leisurely pace at 50-1 a horse who ran the race of his life over a sealed, sloppy, speed favoring track (im looking at the charts right now from may 11th) when he was unpressured early. now im not a beyer man, but the numbers are there for what they are worth. why is it people assume the off track moved orb up, but I haven't heard one thing about that with this guy? he is an immediate throwout for me at an overbet price. he will be the "wiseguy" play and will be an underlay.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 2:59:32 GMT -5
next on the list...... frac daddy. why is this horse even in the race? I admit, I was intrigued a tiny bit in the derby. not enough to bet him, but I did look. but letsd put all the nonsense about pretty eyes and roan coat and look at the facts. he has run 4 times in the last 7 months and the only race he was even remotely competitive in was when he was a distant second in the worst of all the derby preps. hes never beaten winners and went backwards as a closer last time in a race where all the speed stopped. complete throw out.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 3:21:35 GMT -5
giant finish....... ok so the trainer actually told the owners not to run before the derby. they over ruled him, ran anyway, and never threatened or had any kick after an easy trip. another who not only has never beaten agood horse, but other then the derby hes never even faced one. sorry, uncaptured, an average sprinter, and black onyx, don't count. he does have some speed but not nearly enough to use it to his advantage for a lone f lead. so after all that were supposed to believe he belongs with these? yeah, right. throwout number three!
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 3:28:09 GMT -5
midnight taboo...... repole rabbit just to make sure another oxbow pace situation doesn't occur, although it is unnecessary because there is other speed this time. nas room for improvement but not today. if he was an up and comer wouldn't velasquez be here instead of on overanalyze, who he is a rabbit for?never even been around two turns. pass
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 4:03:37 GMT -5
will take charge........ the only horse in here besides orb and oxbow to run in all three tc races. was actually the fresh horse going into the derby, skipping the last major round of preps. now he is the least accomplished and talented it appears of 3 horses who are going to be suffering from fatigue more then the others. yeah you can find excuses for his last two and I got sucked in on him last time, but really has just been outrun. slow pace hurt last time, but how much? he didn't really look like he had much run anyway. and in the derby, yes he was troubled in the stretch, but he was still not going to be that close anyway. he got stopped. what did it cost him? 3 or 4 lengths? he got beat by 12. I think he may just be a plodder. the distance might help. a clean trip might help. and a fast pace might help. but I doubt if it will help enough to get him in the winners circle. he might flop into the tri or super, but im laying off this time.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 4:17:00 GMT -5
incognito......... basically the same feeling here as with take charge. he might get in the number with a perfect trip and added distance, but I doubt if he can win it. hard to endorse a horse who just got beat 15 by a horse I hate. I think the distance wont hurt him, but I have a newsflash for those of you who think he was "running on" so smoothly last time. watch the race again. he was going nowhere on the turn and backing up and had been passed by others until he dropped down to the inside in the lane. everyone else was dead tired and lugging out off the rail late and he was the only one to stick to the fence, which was a speed favoring freeway all day long. even though he was behind 5 or 6 horses, none of them stuck to the fence so it was as if he was in front and on non treaded ground to the wire. he benefited by a weird occurrence and appeared stronger in the lane then he was. I might use in tris and supers but that's it.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 4:28:46 GMT -5
to be continued tomorrow. I have to go to bed now and dream about me and cait smoking a blunt and riding off into the sunset together, like butch and sundance, archie and edith, or kanye and kim k. take your pick.
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cait
Active Member
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Post by cait on Jun 6, 2013 8:31:39 GMT -5
wiz - dear - lol this is a race where just about anything could happen - therefore - nothing really wrong picking the "prettiest horsey " his recent workouts are great, he's had a break, his breeding is very very good - am not sure where he ranks on the "meter" however - probably low lol however, with rain and #1, not looking good for him - he may not be the wisegal play after all - horses for courses, mud might favor Orb - and he got a good draw
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Post by eliteone on Jun 6, 2013 9:30:54 GMT -5
Still can't see what Cait sees in Frac other than his prettiness..I wouldn't play him with whiz's money...She is right about anything being possible with this weak bunch though......Speaking of whiz, I have to say the Eliteone basically agrees with just about all he has posted here. Especially on the new black hole Freedom Child...(waiting for the ground to rumble here now)
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cait
Active Member
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Post by cait on Jun 6, 2013 11:04:21 GMT -5
"......Speaking of whiz, I have to say the Eliteone basically agrees with just about all he has posted here" damn - my new contacts must be wrong! very nice gentlemen!
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 12:40:46 GMT -5
someone check my temperature............ orally please.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 13:18:43 GMT -5
ok next up on the spinning wheel of death........ oxbow and orb! first off let me say I am NOT saying these two cant win. they most certainly can. but they will be somewhere in the vicinity of 2-1 and 6-1 and just aren't worth those prices. oxbow stole the Preakness. great tactical move by both stevens and lukas in that race. it wont happen again though. and if this horse doesn't have some sort of tactical advantage, he is just plain not good enough to win this race. other then the Preakness, he has been outfinished in his previous 4 races, all at shorter distances. I envision him sitting 3rd or 4th early, moving mid backstretch, dueling into the turn and fading before the 1/4 pole, finishing well up the track. he might hold on for a piece, but I would rather tyry to flop a 25-1 shot in the number then a 5-1 shot. orb is different. I do believe he is a good horse. much better then oxbow. I also believe he will handle the distance better and should get a great trip for his style. however 2 things worry me. first, like oxbow and will take charge, he is not fresh and is coming off of a subpar effort. a bad combination. maybe his form cycle is in need of a refreshing. I know he got a raw deal pacewise and trip wise in the Preakness, but still, he had nothing. competing in all three races can take its toll, and at 2-1, you better be in top shape for me to play you in a 14 horse field. secondly, of all his starts, his one at Belmont was by far his worst. I know it was ore Lasix, but still. he acted up, broke slow, and never ran a step. maybe it was the track. who knows? but once again a question mark on a short priced horse. he clearly is good enough and has consistently faced and beaten the best horses, but im going to try and beat him.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 13:22:37 GMT -5
and then there were six..........
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 13:27:44 GMT -5
actually I went out of order because I should have tossed this guy before the last two........... vyjack. I hated him in the derby and was right. I think he nay be a good horse and is working good and is fresh now with a better post. however, I just don't think he wants to go this far. I think he is a miler. I would be surprised if he is around at the finish.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 13:46:11 GMT -5
honestly I will probably play all five of the horses left, plus orb, in the pick fours on my spread tickets. but when it comes time to leave one more out, I guess it will be the filly. just too many rules for me to go against to play her. I don't play fillies against horses. ever! I would rather pass on a race then do it. it may happen more then in the old days, but it still is not normal for a female to beat males. neither of pletchers top teo jocks chose her back in here. I have no problem with rosie but Javier chooses to go with another horse he has never even ridden rather then her. her finish in the oaks wasn't that great. and truthfully I think her being in here has a lot more to do with repole's ego then pletcher thinking she can win. at one point I heard he had as many as 4 or 5 horses he wanted to run. really? and he ended up with these two? sounds to me like he just wants to be in the race. actually she ranks behind orb for me also, but at least he price wil be a lot higher.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 14:17:49 GMT -5
ok so there it is. my four horse box, plus orb, in the tri. overanalyze, revolutionary, palace malice (if I can buck the fact that obsolete1 picked him), and golden soul. im sure I will play whoever the best price is out of the four to win. if I had to lean towards one of them it would probably be golden soul at this point. I think he will enjoy the distance, seems to be on the improve every start, and should get a good pace to run at. plus a square price.
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 6, 2013 20:35:24 GMT -5
just now looking at the pp's for the Belmont and things are jumping off the page at me. for a month ive been hearing about freedom child, not knowing what he looked like. well this is what I see....... a horse who has never been competitive in a race where he didn't make the lead. a horse who has beaten ONE good horse in his entire career, in a race 9 months ago while still not winning the race, in a one turn mile where he was unpressured on a leisurely pace at 50-1 a horse who ran the race of his life over a sealed, sloppy, speed favoring track (im looking at the charts right now from may 11th) when he was unpressured early. now im not a beyer man, but the numbers are there for what they are worth. why is it people assume the off track moved orb up, but I haven't heard one thing about that with this guy? he is an immediate throwout for me at an overbet price. he will be the "wiseguy" play and will be an underlay. Instead of throwing out Freedom Child I will throw out your analysis. That analysis was classic oops did I really say that. Dude the horse can win the race by 10 if he fires. He is the best horse in the race by far. The only horse that can beat him is Palace Malice, It is a mortal lock exacta with these two. There is absolutely nothing else in the race. Freedom Child - lead Orb and Revolutionary all the way around at 1 mile as a 2yo finishing 2nd to Orb by 2 and beating Revolutionary. Then lost to Saint Vigeur who he recently beat by 13 in the Peter Pan showing that that race last year was a fluke where he lost to Saint Vigeur. Then beat Bellarmine by 5 at GP who subsequently beat Code West. Then got held in the Wood and was declared a non-starter. Then proved his class against some very good horses in the Peter Pan winning by 13. This is a monster. The class of the class. Palace Malice is the best out of the derby where was in the lead in 45/1:09 fractions and only faded at the very end. They will not let him take the lead this time and will lay off the pace of Freedom Child about 3rd or 4th and make a big run at the end. It is a lock that either Palace Malice or Freedom Child will win and the other will be no worse than third.
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 6, 2013 21:49:54 GMT -5
Wiz, love the whole process of elimination thing you've got going here. Very creative. Now, to defend my choice of Incognito in the Belmont, I will simply say that in recent years, this has been the race where pretty much anything can and does happen. It has become such an anomaly due to the mile and 1/2 distance. What you need to look for more than anything else is which horse is gonna move up at this distance. To me, that horse is Incognito this year. I realize that on paper, his race in the Peter Pan was nothing to write home about, but upon closer examination it was a lot better race for this inexperienced horse than it looked and might just set him up to run the race of his life on Saturday.
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 6, 2013 22:07:04 GMT -5
Wiz, love the whole process of elimination thing you've got going here. Very creative. Now, to defend my choice of Incognito in the Belmont, I will simply say that in recent years, this has been the race where pretty much anything can and does happen. It has become such an anomaly due to the mile and 1/2 distance. What you need to look for more than anything else is which horse is gonna move up at this distance. To me, that horse is Incognito this year. I realize that on paper, his race in the Peter Pan was nothing to write home about, but upon closer examination it was a lot better race for this inexperienced horse than it looked and might just set him up to run the race of his life on Saturday. You are the classic bettor who is trying to find a diamond in the ruff and will read into things that just aren't there. Incognito is a 25K claimer. His best race is a 25 Optional claimer where he won two back. That is it. There is no more than that. The reason why he ran so bad in the Peter Pan is because he was that bad. Just forgetaboutit and don't try to beat the obvious better horses with a loser.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 6, 2013 22:47:28 GMT -5
wow cap, you bash shooter for looking for a diamond in the rough, but what are you doing? and at least he isn't 10% as obnoxious about it. you keep throwing the same facts out, which basically mean nothing other then what you want to believe. these horses that you are using to determine freedoms ability, comparing them to him, are nobodys. coide west, bellamarine, saint vigeur, where are they? they are all healthy. why are they not in the big races? because they don't belong. freedom has never won a race that contained a real tc threat. I hate to knock someone who just made a big score like you did in the Preakness, but man your way of handicapping is priceless.
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