cait
Active Member
Posts: 3,821 
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Post by cait on Jun 5, 2013 10:15:34 GMT -5
1. Frac Daddy
2. Freedom Child
3. Overanalyze
4. Giant Finish
5. Orb
6. Incognito
7. Oxbow
8. Midnight Taboo
9. Revolutionary
10. Will Take Charge
11. Vyjack
12. Palace Malice
13. Unlimited Budget
14. Golden Soul
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 5, 2013 10:22:51 GMT -5
1. Frac Daddy - 30/1
2. Freedom Child - 8/1
3. Overanlyze - 12/1
4. Giant Finish - 30/1
5. Orb - 5/1
6. Incognito - 20/1
7. Oxbow - 5/1
8. Midnight Taboo - 30/1
9. Revolutionary - 9/2
10. Will Take Charge - 20/1
11. Vyjack - 20/1
12. Palace Malice - 15/1
13. Unlimited Budget - 8/1
14. Golden Soul - 10/1
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Jon
Administrator 
Posts: 4,669 
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Post by Jon on Jun 5, 2013 10:37:22 GMT -5
Thanks. Two members right on it LOL
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 5, 2013 10:46:27 GMT -5
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cait
Active Member
Posts: 3,821
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Post by cait on Jun 5, 2013 11:59:38 GMT -5
not sure shoot - if it rains and the rail is deep, i will be an unhappy girl! belmont's wide so everyone should be able to get position - i just don't want my handsome guy crushed into the rail
oxbow and orb drew well - think it's good for the filly she's on the outside - as to midnight taboo and a few others, don't think the draw matters at all as they should be on the undercard lol
hey - who do ya like in the brklyn? lol
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Post by Challedon on Jun 5, 2013 12:33:50 GMT -5
the offshore prices
FRAC DADDY +3000
FREEDOM CHILD +1000
GIANT FINISH +3000
GOLDEN SOUL +700
INCOGNITO +3000
MIDNIGHT TABOO +4000
ORB +275
OVERANALYZE +1000
OXBOW +350
PLALACE MALICE +1200
REVOLUCIONARY +300
UNLIMITED BUDGET +1600
VYJACK +2000
WILL TAKE CHARGE +1000 |
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Post by shooter29 on Jun 5, 2013 13:04:25 GMT -5
I really hope we get a fast track for Saturday but who knows?
Unfortunately, I think Frac D was against it even before the draw Babe. But hey, stranger things have happened especially in the Belmont.
Totally agree Oxbow is the most favorably drawn. Not so sure about Orb. I think Freedom Child is gonna have to go from the 2 hole. Oxbow can sit back off of him. The filly has no shot and will not hit the board IMO. A sleeper horse is Giant Finish. He just looks like a Belmont horse to me and gotta rep for the MD connections of course. Incognito is a big grinding-type of horse who tends to find trouble in his races. Hopefully, he come away in good order and be able to secure a good position. Many will dismiss him off his fifth-place effort in the Peter Pan, but in reality he was only beaten two heads for show money and galloped out very strongly at a mile and 1/8. Distance will be no obstacle and at a mile and 1/2 he'll have plenty of time to grind 'em down to the wire.
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Post by byanose13 on Jun 5, 2013 16:43:49 GMT -5
I will ask the members here. do you toss the Derby and Preakness and go on their prior races. if you use the derby how much do you forgive the bad finishes because of the mud and who did it move up and as far as the Preakness do you just throw that one out because of the lack of pace that the jockeys somehow did not see or feel for that race. I think I can handicap a little but I am open to opinions and thoughts on this.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 5, 2013 17:05:59 GMT -5
by imo you never toss a race completely. there is always something you can learn from a race. after watching the Preakness for example I learned that in Lukas's mind, the only chance oxbow had was on the front end. that is why he entered the rabbit. to scare off the other front runners from sending early. then he pulled the old switcheroo and held the speed and sent his main gun instead. if he felt oxbow was the best horse in the race he would not have gambled like that and taken the chance that someone else would go with him, thereby getting him caught up in a duel and nullifying his chances. he could have sat back third or fourth like he did in the derby and other races. but I think lukas knew when it came time to run in the lane, he would get outfinished by the other closers. instead he gambled and it paid off. that wont happen again in my opinion.
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 5, 2013 19:55:12 GMT -5
It won't happen again because Palace Malice had already proved to be more speed than Oxbow in the Derby. Palace Malice will be in front of Oxbow all the way around (and Freedom Child will be in front of them all) and won't let him pass him this time specially since the Belmont is longer which will give the advantage to the speed that can run a little slower to conserve energy until the end. Oxbow will not take the lead (against the likes of Palace Malice and Freedom Child without using himself totally up) and does not have the raw horsepower to overcome the leaders at the end of the race.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 5, 2013 20:29:28 GMT -5
I don't think palace malice will be near the lead. that was a one race experiment that didn't work. and I am usually the one looking for front running lone speed types myself, but I think you put a little too much emphasis on it. unless someone can slow it down to a crawl, being in front isn't going to help anyone in here. a mile and a half is still a long way and just because you have speed doesn't mean ypu can get the distance.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on Jun 5, 2013 20:32:55 GMT -5
I wa very disheartened to read in a different post that someone else on here picked palace malice as his play, as that was where I was leaning as well. now, knowing what I know, I have to search elsewhere. rules are rules, and there are some people you just cant follow. but even when I was picking palace malice, it was because I think he will get a stalking trip. sitting maybe 4th or 5th early.
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Post by Evelyn on Jun 5, 2013 20:42:27 GMT -5
I really think a closer is going to win, not a front runner. Not a deep closer - someone who stays in contention, a few lengths back. If it rains, the race may set up for Orb. He does have a turn of foot (yes Elite, I know your response LOL)
Shooter - I think Frac Daddy isn't impossible. He did run a good 2nd in the AK Derby. Based on the Derby, he may be up against it in the mud from #1 though. And yes, I have to say that because I lost a personal bet on the AK Derby as he finished ahead of Oxbow LOL I agree that Incognito is a possible. The Peter Pan isn't a race to go by imo. With the lead Freedom Child had, there was no reason for horses like Incognito, who were using it as a Belmont prep, to go all out.
Byanose - I don't throw out anything! Mud might make a difference Sat so maybe the Derby needs to be looked at. Yes - the Preakness was school for jockeys taught by Prof Stevens. Overall, this is crop that has no standout. Any one of them could run the race of their lives and win.
I am staying with Oxbow. One reason is Stevens. I don't think mud will bother him and I think he'll make his move slightly ahead of Orb. He's not going for the lead. He'll let the front runners burn each other out. He has a great draw.
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Post by Evelyn on Jun 5, 2013 20:54:03 GMT -5
Track surface may play a large role!
National Weather Service:
Saturday A chance of showers, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Weather.com
Sat
Jun 8
75°
60°
Showers
Chance of rain:
60%
From NY ABC Channel 7 Accuweather
Andrea to Hit Northeast Coast Friday
A storm in the Gulf of Mexico has succeeded in gathering tropical characteristics. Andrea will brush the mid-Atlantic coast and sweep over New England Friday into Saturday with locally heavy rain and flooding risk.
At 5:30 p.m. EDT Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center stated it would begin issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Andrea within the next hour.
While widespread flooding problems are not expected in the Northeast, a system from the Gulf of Mexico will travel northeastward along the coast to bring tropical downpours and urban flooding concerns to end the week.
Andrea is likely to retain tropical storm status at least as far to the northeast as the Carolinas.
Travel delays from blinding tropical downpours, poor drainage area flooding and locally gusty thunderstorms are possible. A brief period of stiff winds will sweep northward, brushing the coast in some areas, especially Cape Hatteras, N.C. and Cape Cod, Mass.
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Post by Evelyn on Jun 5, 2013 21:02:00 GMT -5
If anyone missed and wants to see the draw and comments.
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Jun 5, 2013 21:11:37 GMT -5
I wa very disheartened to read in a different post that someone else on here picked palace malice as his play, as that was where I was leaning as well. now, knowing what I know, I have to search elsewhere. rules are rules, and there are some people you just cant follow. but even when I was picking palace malice, it was because I think he will get a stalking trip. sitting maybe 4th or 5th early. I don't think Palace Malice will go the lead but he could if he wanted to. He can and I think, will lay just off the pace though, 2nd or 3rd and because it will be a slow pace will be able to make a good run at the end. I think this time E1 will be right after somewhat of a drought in his pickings. I like Freedom Child also and he may wire this field. I think Freedom Child will be the front runner for sure and he may not give it up to a stalking Palace Malice, and I don't think any horse will try to outrun Freedom Child when he has established the lead. I think it is a mortal lock that Palace Malice and Freedom Child will be in the top 3 or 4. |
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