Vic-S
Active Member
Posts: 31
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Post by Vic-S on May 23, 2013 0:54:50 GMT -5
Orb
Some horses just bounce in the Preakness, he may have been intimidated by running down on the inside but he ran between horses to finish 4th at the end of the Preakness. I think it may have had to do with the rail being deep 5 paths out (great job Pimlico) along with Titletownfive making sure Orb didn't get the rail move. Still, based on how well the front runners ran no one was going to win coming from off the pace. Another day, another battle and I feel Oxbow is not the best horse in this crop. The 1-2-3-4-5 place Derby finishers are still the 5 best 3YOs in training IMO. Mylute ran a hell of race for coming from out of it, Orb ran OK. As for the other Derby finishers who didn't compete -- Rev always runs tough (1 1/2 is questionable), Golden Soul is a nice horse, and Normandy Invasion looks like he could be a nice horse down the road given that turn of foot we've seen in his last 3.
Oxbow got everything his way, not that Orb didn't in the Derby but I think the Derby result is a true mark of how good these horses really are as compared to the Preakness result this particular year.
If Shug sends Orb to the Belmont expect a Thunder Gulch, Riva Ridge, or Swale type of experience.....right now of the others only Freedom Child, Golden Soul, and Rev may be up to the task. Maybe Palace Malice can get a piece with a slow pace (a horse I never believed in until his suicide pace in the Derby, but still ran a good 12th -- yes that's possible). I always try to look for one 'childish' or 'superstitious' thing to connect the TC race winners in any given year. This year I'm going with the single word Names....Orb..Oxbow...if those two don't win it expect Revolutionary, though I'm not quite sure he wants a 1 1/2.
Orb was the best horse going into the Derby (ML and Post time Fav), he was the best horse coming out, and although he was beaten in the Preakness, horses who put 3, 4, 5 race win streak together generally don't fall off the face of the Earth.
Expect a rebound of some sort.
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on May 23, 2013 2:26:59 GMT -5
ya know, it wouldn't shock me one way or the other to see him win or not. ive never thought he was a world beater and still don't. I did however use him in the derby exotics and singled him in the Preakness p4, so clearly I thought he was the best of that group. so he definitely could win the Belmont and should and will be the favorite if he runs. the more I think about what happened in the Preakness the more I think lukas just outsmarted everyone. he won the race with a horse who probably wasn't the best by outsmarting everyone else. when you look at the race going in, you had to think titletown five was in there for one reason. to be a rabbit for his other two to make sure goldencents did not make an easy uncontested lead. but anyone with a form could look and see that titletown was overmatched and had no chance to win against that field at that distance. so why chase a lone f who has no chance? let him go and run your own race, rating behind him. everyone decided to ski early and not send. but knowing this is what the others would do, lukas decided not to send the rabbit and instead let what appeared to be the best of his threesome go instead, hoping to make an easy lead with a legitimate contender. now mind you, I did not like oxbow myself. I didn't think the race would set up the way it did, and I also just didn't think he was all that impressive in any of his recent races. especially the derby where I thought he got a very easy trip saving ground all the way right off the leader. even though it was a fast pace and all the other speed stopped, he still didn't do much work and never left the rail. so im not saying I liked him, but lukas and others did. I believe in his mind oxbow was his best horse and he devised a plan to get him the best and easiest trip in the Preakness, and it worked. one thing about lukas is he is smart. ive never argued that. I don't think hes much of a trainer, but he is smart. having said this, I don't think those tactics will work again. someone will go with him early in the Belmont, and I think he will stop, and stop badly. I have to see the whole field for the race as there is no point in speculating who will win two weeks before they even draw entries, but I know I will be betting against oxbow and orb because they will both be short prices and overplayed. I have no idea what freedom cry even looks like in the form but from what ive seen, I think this race has the makings of big priced winner. who, I don't know. Read more: paddockpros.freeforums.net/index.cgi?action=display&board=triplecrown&thread=1771&page=1#ixzz2U69Xen4q |
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on May 23, 2013 3:19:01 GMT -5
I don't think 1 1/2 mile is Orb's distance. He has a pretty good turn of foot which I think will flatten out at too long a distance.
I think Oxbow was the most fit for the Preakness coming off a sizzling performance in the Derby running just of lead in very fast fractions and just fading at the end. This was a very strong performance showing high power output for a very long duration of a very tough race. I don't think he is that good though to repeat in the Belmont as his PP's don't show any really overly impressive performances except the Derby, but he could be a horse on the rise and has to be respected.
Palace Malice also showed some good display of raw horsepower in the Derby by taking the lead in 45/1:09 and change fractions and maintaining that until the end. However, like Oxbow he had not shown that racing style or any overly impressive races prior and it is makes the Derby run questionable that he can carry that effort over to the Belmont.
Freedom Child is the horse to beat. He was in the lead of both Orb and Revolutionary at a mile as a 2yo finishing in the end 2nd to Orb with Revolutionary 3rd. That was a class distinguishing race. Then went to GP and beat pretty good horse Bellarmine by 5 thus validating that race against Orb and Revolutionary was no fluke. Then he could have won the Wood but was declared a non-starter. Then clobbered a decent field in the Peter Pan by 12 or more further validating his 2yo class. This horse is getting better and better and may be the absolute best of this crop for sure. I think he may win by double digits in the Belmont in wire-to-wire fashion.
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Post by Evelyn on May 23, 2013 8:01:26 GMT -5
I really haven't made a pick yet. Of Orb does win, that woulkd be fantastic for NY. Belmont will be rocking and rolling like Saratoga was when Racel won! It would also be great for racing in general.
Orb's strong gallop has McGaughey wanting to run
By David Grening
ELMONT, N.Y. - Kentucky Derby winner Orb galloped a strong mile Thursday morning at Belmont Park, his first day back to the track since his fourth-place finish in last Saturday’s Preakness Stakes.
Afterward, trainer Shug McGaughey said he was pleased with what he saw and if things continue to go well, he would like to run Orb in the $1 million Belmont Stakes on June 8.
[BELMONT STAKES: Probable field and latest updates]
“If everything’s right, he’s doing right, puts his weight back on, his energy level’s good, we would like to run in the Belmont,” said McGaughey, who trains Orb for co-owners/breeders Ogden Mills Phipps and Stuart Janney III. “If we hit any stumbling block along the way there are plenty of other good opportunities.”
The Belmont Stakes lost a contender Wednesday evening when trainer Tom Amoss said via text message that Preakness third-place finisher Mylute would skip the Belmont and “point to a start later in summer.”
Orb certainly displayed a high energy level on a cloudy, humid Thursday morning. Orb, with his regular exercise rider Jennifer Patterson aboard, entered the sealed, good main track at 6 a.m. and stood quietly alongside a stable pony at the 1 1/4 mile pole.
Orb didn’t appear to turn a hair when two loose horses went by him from opposite directions seconds apart.
“They said it was quite exciting down there with the loose horses and the outriders,” McGaughey said. “With all he’s been through, he’s seen so much, I don’t think it’s going to startle him. It got me off my seat.”
Once the commotion died down, Orb jogged for about three-eighths of a mile before leaving the stable pony at the 6 1/2 furlong pole. He jumped right into his gallop, but was kept closer to the outside rail than the inside rail owing to the presence of two sets of orange traffic cones, commonly referred to as dogs, which forced all horses to train on the outer half of the sealed track.
Patterson had a good hold of Orb has he galloped in sub-16-second eighths through the stretch.
“I thought he went really good,” McGaughey said. “I told Jenn, 'I can live with that.’ He seemed to come out of his race really well. He gradually picked his feed up. I brought him out of his stall yesterday afternoon and came out on his back feet. He galloped nice this morning. If he continues in that direction, I’ll be a happy guy.”
- additional reporting by Marty McGee
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Post by eliteone on May 23, 2013 15:23:40 GMT -5
“I thought he went really good,” McGaughey said. “I told Jenn, 'I can live with that.’ He seemed to come out of his race really well. He gradually picked his feed up. I brought him out of his stall yesterday afternoon and came out on his back feet. He galloped nice this morning. If he continues in that direction, I’ll be a happy guy.”
Now why would ANYONE listen to a word this man says says concerning this horse? He sucked in half the world and burned countless millions with his last review of an Orb workout...You remember that one...the one that sent shivers down his spine. The one where adjectives were Sensational and Outstanding...Who knew you could get all that from 47 handily?
Disagree with Vic and anyone who thinks Orb even belongs in the Belmont...Last I saw him he was going backwards...This is no 1 1/2 horse as Nick says. Not even close. If he wins it's in 2:32 ish...Even Union Rags was a better story imo...he was definitely a better horse than Orb is too.
Any Questions?
Class Dismissed!
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on May 23, 2013 16:37:32 GMT -5
yawn!
someone wake me up when something knew is posted.
so orb won the derby, then stunk in the Preakness. so he doesn't belong or deserve to race in the Belmont, right? so who does? only horses who have won their last start? how about horses who got distanced last time they ran after getting left at the start like they have in every previous start? do they belong in the race? of course they do, because some delusional, multi personality whacko has made up some fictitious form of handicapping that says said horse is 15 lengths better then everyone he has previously faced and been destroyed by. yup, makes all the sense in the world!!
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on May 23, 2013 16:41:20 GMT -5
and if I remember right, every clocker who watched that work was impressed, not just shug. but im sure you know more then they do also obsolete, even though you were never within eyesight of the work when it took place. and how did he suck in anyone or burn millions with those comments? after handling the derby field the way he did, do you think if shug had never said a word that he still would not have been the favorite? think before you post dude.
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Post by shooter29 on May 23, 2013 17:32:28 GMT -5
Orb has a great shot at rebounding in the Belmont most certainly wouldn't be the first to do so. Thunder Gulch and Swale come to mind. The Preakness is a throwout race for him. He's a much better horse than what he showed. A mile and 1/2 is gonna suit him to a tee.
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Post by eliteone on May 24, 2013 6:11:25 GMT -5
Orb showed exactly what kind of horse he is. A 1:57 and change horse...minus 10 lengths...Not one horse in that race was good enough to altar the 1:13 and change scenario set up by Gary. THAT should show the pigflesh we are dealing with here. Nobody in their right minds thought TC horses would let a horse steal a race like it was a 50,000 claimer. This is what threw off Quantums along with everyone else. Not a one was good enough to say, hey, Gary is going awfully slow. I better get in gear right now! Not a one was good enough. Neither Orb or Oxbow even belong in the Belmont....they are both basicly milers. Any Questions? Class Dismissed! (teach has to take a whiz)  |
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on May 24, 2013 13:47:30 GMT -5
so as I said leach, er I mean teach, who does deserve to be in the race? no one? maybe just a bunch of horses who have proven nothing themselves other then they have ducked the best competition that is out there this year? why not just cancel the race? I mean if they cant run as fast as another horse did 40 years ago, then theres no point in it, right?
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Post by eliteone on May 24, 2013 15:33:51 GMT -5
horses that are moving forward instead of backward have some right to be there..it's not 40 years either Whiz...(you're lucky you only wrote 3 sentences),,,just in the last 10 years we have gone from 1:49'S TO 1:50'S AND 1:52'S...40 years ago we were going 1:46's and 1:47's...Even cracking 1:46...It was doable...now except for the rare throwback (Rachel) or a souped up track it's nearly impossible. Maybe a horse can bring it once and that would be it.
I'd definitely retire the Belmont if it was up to Elite. I'd abolish the Triple Clown too. This is a different species...junkie sprinters who cannot carry their form...instead they are brittle and lose weight...
Elite doesn't SUGARCOAT or romanticize... He tells it like it is.
Whiz Dismissed!
(teach has to take a whiz)
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Post by Evelyn on May 24, 2013 17:49:35 GMT -5
Abolish the TC? NEVER!!!
(I doubt he heard me as he was headed for his throne LOL)
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Post by mackdaddy on May 24, 2013 22:09:43 GMT -5
Your ticket should have this symbol.....*
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Post by mrdelmarwasmybitch on May 24, 2013 23:13:09 GMT -5
then the simple solution obsolete would be to not bet or watch these races. what is the difference if it is 40 years or 10? reguardless, each year and generation is its own entity. if you cant accept that then you should distance yourself from it. theres a big difference between telling it like it is and just whining like a "beach" (happy cait?) nonstop every chance you get. everything is piggy this or junkie that. if it bothers you that much, go watch ping pong.
time for elite to beat his meat!!
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