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Post by shooter29 on May 2, 2013 16:15:33 GMT -5
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Post by eliteone on May 2, 2013 20:38:58 GMT -5
It's too bad Shug has a plodder to uphold the long tradition of his connections. Even Johnny V wanted no part of him. His mount is not much better and distance challenged. Orb could win in 2:04 2/5. Verrazano could not but should still finish in front of an Orb.
Calumet same deal..all past glory with nothing to hang their hat on now. Goldencents and Vyjack are basicly milers...it's not a good crop by any means. Even Java's War will have to leap into his role as best horse of this bunch and we fully expect him too.
GL for all who play on sentiment..We here at QU do not LIKE anyone. We aren't even allowed. We just qualify and quantify the horseflesh.
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Post by racinggal on May 2, 2013 22:18:54 GMT -5
I'm not sure why you keep calling Orb a plodder? I'm with shooter - Go Orb!
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Post by shooter29 on May 3, 2013 2:07:09 GMT -5
@e1:
If Orb does not win this year's Kentucky Derby, then I guarantee that there will be no Triple Crown in 2013. Of all the entrants, he is the only one capable. And if the track comes up sloppy as it just might do on Derby Day, he'll be a mortal lock. He's bred for the slop with A.P. Indy on the top side and Unbridled on the bottom side both of whom's offspring perform well on slop. His second dam, Mesabi Maiden won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in the slop at Pimlico back in '96 as well (I know because I was there lol) and his from the same family as the Immortal Ruffian. Hard not to root him and Shug.
One thing is for sure: Win or lose, he will without question finish ahead of Java's War who can't even handle the dirt let alone the mud. And if he doesn't I will post my own personal Mea Culpa to "The Boss" of the Pros Communty.
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Post by eliteone on May 3, 2013 10:43:40 GMT -5
Please understand my critique of Orb is nothing personal at all. I think you know that shooter...so why diss on Java? RG and Shooter...Orb is SLOW...he won a race when the table was set in 8 and change and his close was still slow...he then won the Fla derby plodding past in slow time with slow close...He could never step with the likes of Java. This is a real RACEHORSE  ...If Orb was so good would Johnny V leave him? Jocks make mistakes all the time but this says it all imo. If an Orb or a Verrazano win this derby i'd like to pledge that I will never play another horse AGAIN!...of course I won't offer that pledge but if one of them wins it will be like kissing one's sister to me...bad for the game for a plodder to win in 2:04 2/5. Johnny V can't break the Apollo curse either...not with this horse in this race...I think he figured neither has a shot so he stayed with his bread and butter but they were the first two tosses for me. |
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Post by shooter29 on May 3, 2013 10:55:27 GMT -5
@e1: Not dissing Java Teach and most definitely get that it's nothing personal re Orb. Just disagree is all. As for thd critique of Orb as a "slow horse" I don't think any of these colts are gonna break 2 minutes ala Secretariat or Monarchos. So I really don't think it matters. Orb is a horse who's been on the improve with each race and he's thrived even more since arriving at Churchill wheras Java hasn't looked as impressive. As for Johnny V, I wasn't surprised to see him jump off Orb to ride Verrazano for his main man, Pletcher. I don't give a lot of weight to that. And Rosario is red hot right now so I think 'O' will be just fine. And now, back to clapping these erasers lol  |
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Post by Evelyn on May 3, 2013 11:45:21 GMT -5
I really think too much is being made of "time" with this group. First of all, they HAD to run in the preps - where the goal was to earn points, not set track records. I also think it's impossible to accurately compare times between different tracks and different surfaces. No one cares about time. They care about winning.
It will be interesting (and probably depressing) to see which of this group are still around past May-June.
As to Johnny V - it's a blessing in disguise. Rosario is hot, as shooter said, Johnny V hasn't ridden a full card in weeks and is most likely not 100%, not "tuned up" and not at the top of his game. He also puts his pocketbook into the equation - therefore he chose Pletcher. I think it was more that kind of decision - not the best horse angle. He knows that anything can happen in the Derby and since the field has been increased to 20, the "best" horse - overall - in the long term - seldom wins.
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Post by eliteone on May 3, 2013 15:03:34 GMT -5
Well agree somewhat on time but it can not be totally ignored either. In Orb's closes, even the one set up for him in 8 and change, they are pedestrian at best. I see him as peaked already and do not see Java as peaked.
As for the jocks, all I can say is I've seen these jocks when it comes to derby mounts and most would sell out their own mother. Johnny V is now giving away the derby favorite for a horse who can't possibly win?
Smells fishy to me. Yes a business choice in the end but only after measuring his chances with Orb imo.
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Post by Evelyn on May 3, 2013 15:34:16 GMT -5
e1 - I just watched both the FL Derby and the Blue Grass
FL Derby: 150.87
BGL 150.27
Orb was hand ridden home - easily
JW was whipped many times in the stretch - Yes that move looked impressive. But - will that move work at Churchill? Ask Zenyatta LOL
I don't think the times (ignoring surface) make that much of a difference. I do think JW had a much tougher race and he is the one that peaked. I think he will eventually be a turf horse. I made a mistake on Dullahan last year. JW seems to be this year's Dullahan!
IF the track is muddy, JW does move up and I'll use him. I also do not like Julien as a jockey - except on grass - and the Derby is very much a jockey's race.
That being said - GL to all. I hope some of us win!
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...If Orb was so good would Johnny V leave him? Jocks make mistakes all the time but this says it all imo. 
