Watchmaker: The Derby Favorite
Apr 28, 2013 15:03:27 GMT -5
Post by cait on Apr 28, 2013 15:03:27 GMT -5
think watchmaker has a point re derby odds - there are probably lots of peeps who bet one race a year - the derby! a lot depends on pre-race positive PR - i think verrazano, oxbow, orb, goldencents and, if he enters one, any baffert horse will be lower odds than they'd be in any other race because of "name" recognition - also mylute because women especially are going to play rosie - i'll probably be one of them - just for the hell of it - because i'd love to see rosie win the derby (but no teach - it won't be a big bet lol) and because anything can happen in a too large field with no real standout
The Derby Favorite
By Mike Watchmaker
I had an interesting conversation the other day with my Derby Watch colleague Jay Privman about something he tweeted last week. Privman wondered aloud in cyberspace whether Verrazano, who has been future book favorite for the Kentucky Derby everywhere for virtually the entire prep season, would actually be the betting favorite in real Derby wagering, which begins on Friday.
Privman’s position was based on the observation that few, if any, public handicappers have come out and said they are picking Verrazano on top, or are even leaning in that direction. This is a good point that would apply to just about every race. Every race, that is, except the one named Kentucky Derby.
Whether it’s a good thing or not, public handicappers often produce opinions that are reflective of what the general betting public will come to conclude. But the Derby is a different betting animal. The general public has an impact on Derby odds the likes of which are not seen in any other race. The only proof you need of that is how every year, a handful of horses who should be 100-1 or higher (and would be in any other race), go off at prices that are a tiny fraction of what they should be. Perhaps because they have come to know the players during the months of preps, the public does what it wants in the Derby. Public handicappers just do not have the influence on betting in the Kentucky Derby that they might have on other races.
That’s the main reason why I told Jay that I thought Verrazano would indeed be the Derby favorite. Verrazano is undefeated, which resonates with the public. He’s trained by a man in Todd Pletcher who is familiar to even the most infrequent racegoer. He’s been the favorite all along, and he hasn’t done one thing wrong thing to jeopardize his position. In addition, the three or four horses who would seem to be in a position to overtake Verrazano as the favorite of the Derby have not yet galvanized their constituencies to the point where they might actually become the favorite.
But that was last week, and now I’m not so sure. I was at Belmont Park on Saturday and there were several folks who came up to talk to me, which I like because, hey, I’m a horseplayer, too. Of course, all these folks wanted to talk about was the Kentucky Derby, and I was struck how every single one of them was against Verrazano.
Now, it goes without saying that this was the farthest thing from a scientific sample. But these folks were rank-and-file horseplayers. And since they are very much like the larger group of people who will determine the odds in the Kentucky Derby, I can see now how it could be possible that Verrazano won’t be the favorite Saturday.
www.drf.com/blogs/derby-favorite
The Derby Favorite
By Mike Watchmaker
I had an interesting conversation the other day with my Derby Watch colleague Jay Privman about something he tweeted last week. Privman wondered aloud in cyberspace whether Verrazano, who has been future book favorite for the Kentucky Derby everywhere for virtually the entire prep season, would actually be the betting favorite in real Derby wagering, which begins on Friday.
Privman’s position was based on the observation that few, if any, public handicappers have come out and said they are picking Verrazano on top, or are even leaning in that direction. This is a good point that would apply to just about every race. Every race, that is, except the one named Kentucky Derby.
Whether it’s a good thing or not, public handicappers often produce opinions that are reflective of what the general betting public will come to conclude. But the Derby is a different betting animal. The general public has an impact on Derby odds the likes of which are not seen in any other race. The only proof you need of that is how every year, a handful of horses who should be 100-1 or higher (and would be in any other race), go off at prices that are a tiny fraction of what they should be. Perhaps because they have come to know the players during the months of preps, the public does what it wants in the Derby. Public handicappers just do not have the influence on betting in the Kentucky Derby that they might have on other races.
That’s the main reason why I told Jay that I thought Verrazano would indeed be the Derby favorite. Verrazano is undefeated, which resonates with the public. He’s trained by a man in Todd Pletcher who is familiar to even the most infrequent racegoer. He’s been the favorite all along, and he hasn’t done one thing wrong thing to jeopardize his position. In addition, the three or four horses who would seem to be in a position to overtake Verrazano as the favorite of the Derby have not yet galvanized their constituencies to the point where they might actually become the favorite.
But that was last week, and now I’m not so sure. I was at Belmont Park on Saturday and there were several folks who came up to talk to me, which I like because, hey, I’m a horseplayer, too. Of course, all these folks wanted to talk about was the Kentucky Derby, and I was struck how every single one of them was against Verrazano.
Now, it goes without saying that this was the farthest thing from a scientific sample. But these folks were rank-and-file horseplayers. And since they are very much like the larger group of people who will determine the odds in the Kentucky Derby, I can see now how it could be possible that Verrazano won’t be the favorite Saturday.
www.drf.com/blogs/derby-favorite
