Derby Pretenders
Apr 23, 2013 0:18:56 GMT -5
Post by Jon on Apr 23, 2013 0:18:56 GMT -5
I think MyLute and Lines of Battle bear watching. And elite - good stuff re Java's War!
(sorry ladies re Oxbow and Frac Daddy but this is only one opinion!)
The 2013 Kentucky Derby pretenders
THE BOTTOM FIVE
Falling Sky has speed to be a factor, but if he runs his final three furlongs in the same 40 3/5 seconds he needed in the Arkansas Derby or the 32 4/5 for the final 2 1/2 furlongs in the Tampa Bay Derby, he will finish either last or next-to-last.
Super Ninety Nine is another early pacesetter that has zero chance of bringing home the roses. The colt is poised for a workout on Wednesday at Santa Anita, at which time Baffert will decide if the colt is headed for Kentucky.
Den's Legacy also will work Wednesday to see if he is ready to move forward to Louisville. He ran a dismal sixth in the Arkansas Derby four weeks after running third in the Rebel Stakes so even if he runs, don't expect much of an effort.
If Baffert brings both to the gate it will eliminate Charming Kitten from the field. That is an important since Charming Kitten is a horse to watch. He was racing on even terms with Java's War through the stretch in the Blue Grass until Palace Malice drifted out slightly, impeding his progress in the final sixteenth. Keep an eye on what Baffert does with his duo as Charming Kitten should be a huge price if he makes the race.
Another colt with little chance is D. Wayne Lukas' Oxbow. The 3-1 second choice in the Arkansas Derby finished fifth, a neck behind the fourth-place finisher, Falling Sky. It was his eighth start since last October and, surprisingly, only one of them has come at 1 1/8 miles.
Oxbow is bred to race 1 1/4 miles, but based on his on-track performances, it is extremely doubtful he will be a factor down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
Will Take Charge, the other Lukas entry, comes into the Derby off a seven-week layoff and without a race at nine furlongs. There are two big knocks against him. His big claim to fame is a head victory in the Rebel Stakes over stablemate Oxbow. Prior to that, he ran sixth, beaten 18 lengths in the Southwest Stakes.
Will Take Charge also is a half-brother to Take Charge Indy, the horse that ran 19th in last year's Kentucky Derby.
THE NEXT FIVE
Frac Daddy is a colt that could surprise on the first Saturday in May, but it is highly unlikely. He was soundly defeated by Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby despite the second-place finish. It was an improved performance after a pair of disappointing efforts at Gulfstream Park.
The one thing going for the son of Scat Daddy is his affinity for the Churchill Downs surface. His top two races (as a 2-year-old) both came in Louisville.
Lines of Battle is 2-for-2 on synthetic surfaces and his dam, Black Speck, is a half-sister to Dynaformer (Barbaro's sire). Her sire is Arch, who also is the damsire of last year's Derby winner, I'll Have Another. In addition, this year's field is very weak so if there ever was a time for a UAE Derby winner to double it up in Kentucky, this could be it.
On the negative side, Lines of Battle has never raced on true dirt and he's raced just once since November.
Black Onyx would be a throw out in most years based on his 1:51 4/5 time in the Spiral Stakes as well as the lack of quality competition behind him. However, there are no standouts in this year's field and he has won three of his last four starts.
I had Govenor Charlie much higher on my Dirty Dozen last week, but recent foot issues have lowered my expectations. It is difficult to win the Kentucky Derby without any hiccups over the final few weeks, so imagine how hard it is when something such as this comes to the fore.
On the other hand, Govenor Charlie is one of the few descendents of Mr. Prospector in the field and six of the last 11 Derby winners have come from that sire line.
Vyjack is a gelding on many top 10 lists, but the son of Into Mischief just misses the cut here at No. 11.
He showed tremendous guts finishing a length behind Verrazano in the Wood Memorial, but it appears 1 1/8 miles is as far as he will go. His pedigree is geared to one mile and 1 1/16 miles at best. In addition, his recent respiratory infection and a very slow work at Fair Hill on April 19 do not infuse much confidence as we get closer to May 4.
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Verrazano - Seemed to like Churchill with five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
2) Orb - Has been working well in Florida; second choice.
3) Revolutionary - Borel up means lower odds on Derby Day.
4) Java's War - Fits well with these; must break well.
5) Overanalyze - Needs to run faster to tackle these.
6) Normandy Invasion - "Wise guy" horse still has one win.
7) Goldencents - Does he really want to go this far?
8) Palace Malice - Three races in six weeks is an issue.
9) Itsmyluckyday - Distance limitations are evident.
10) Mylute - Continues to work strongly at Churchill Downs.
11) Vyjack - Will struggle down the stretch in Louisville.
12) Govenor Charlie - Foot problems - not a good sign.
www.oddsandnews.com/horseracing/thoroughbred/news/2013-04-22/the-2013-kentucky-derby-pretenders-184642
(sorry ladies re Oxbow and Frac Daddy but this is only one opinion!)
The 2013 Kentucky Derby pretenders
THE BOTTOM FIVE
Falling Sky has speed to be a factor, but if he runs his final three furlongs in the same 40 3/5 seconds he needed in the Arkansas Derby or the 32 4/5 for the final 2 1/2 furlongs in the Tampa Bay Derby, he will finish either last or next-to-last.
Super Ninety Nine is another early pacesetter that has zero chance of bringing home the roses. The colt is poised for a workout on Wednesday at Santa Anita, at which time Baffert will decide if the colt is headed for Kentucky.
Den's Legacy also will work Wednesday to see if he is ready to move forward to Louisville. He ran a dismal sixth in the Arkansas Derby four weeks after running third in the Rebel Stakes so even if he runs, don't expect much of an effort.
If Baffert brings both to the gate it will eliminate Charming Kitten from the field. That is an important since Charming Kitten is a horse to watch. He was racing on even terms with Java's War through the stretch in the Blue Grass until Palace Malice drifted out slightly, impeding his progress in the final sixteenth. Keep an eye on what Baffert does with his duo as Charming Kitten should be a huge price if he makes the race.
Another colt with little chance is D. Wayne Lukas' Oxbow. The 3-1 second choice in the Arkansas Derby finished fifth, a neck behind the fourth-place finisher, Falling Sky. It was his eighth start since last October and, surprisingly, only one of them has come at 1 1/8 miles.
Oxbow is bred to race 1 1/4 miles, but based on his on-track performances, it is extremely doubtful he will be a factor down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
Will Take Charge, the other Lukas entry, comes into the Derby off a seven-week layoff and without a race at nine furlongs. There are two big knocks against him. His big claim to fame is a head victory in the Rebel Stakes over stablemate Oxbow. Prior to that, he ran sixth, beaten 18 lengths in the Southwest Stakes.
Will Take Charge also is a half-brother to Take Charge Indy, the horse that ran 19th in last year's Kentucky Derby.
THE NEXT FIVE
Frac Daddy is a colt that could surprise on the first Saturday in May, but it is highly unlikely. He was soundly defeated by Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby despite the second-place finish. It was an improved performance after a pair of disappointing efforts at Gulfstream Park.
The one thing going for the son of Scat Daddy is his affinity for the Churchill Downs surface. His top two races (as a 2-year-old) both came in Louisville.
Lines of Battle is 2-for-2 on synthetic surfaces and his dam, Black Speck, is a half-sister to Dynaformer (Barbaro's sire). Her sire is Arch, who also is the damsire of last year's Derby winner, I'll Have Another. In addition, this year's field is very weak so if there ever was a time for a UAE Derby winner to double it up in Kentucky, this could be it.
On the negative side, Lines of Battle has never raced on true dirt and he's raced just once since November.
Black Onyx would be a throw out in most years based on his 1:51 4/5 time in the Spiral Stakes as well as the lack of quality competition behind him. However, there are no standouts in this year's field and he has won three of his last four starts.
I had Govenor Charlie much higher on my Dirty Dozen last week, but recent foot issues have lowered my expectations. It is difficult to win the Kentucky Derby without any hiccups over the final few weeks, so imagine how hard it is when something such as this comes to the fore.
On the other hand, Govenor Charlie is one of the few descendents of Mr. Prospector in the field and six of the last 11 Derby winners have come from that sire line.
Vyjack is a gelding on many top 10 lists, but the son of Into Mischief just misses the cut here at No. 11.
He showed tremendous guts finishing a length behind Verrazano in the Wood Memorial, but it appears 1 1/8 miles is as far as he will go. His pedigree is geared to one mile and 1 1/16 miles at best. In addition, his recent respiratory infection and a very slow work at Fair Hill on April 19 do not infuse much confidence as we get closer to May 4.
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Verrazano - Seemed to like Churchill with five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
2) Orb - Has been working well in Florida; second choice.
3) Revolutionary - Borel up means lower odds on Derby Day.
4) Java's War - Fits well with these; must break well.
5) Overanalyze - Needs to run faster to tackle these.
6) Normandy Invasion - "Wise guy" horse still has one win.
7) Goldencents - Does he really want to go this far?
8) Palace Malice - Three races in six weeks is an issue.
9) Itsmyluckyday - Distance limitations are evident.
10) Mylute - Continues to work strongly at Churchill Downs.
11) Vyjack - Will struggle down the stretch in Louisville.
12) Govenor Charlie - Foot problems - not a good sign.
www.oddsandnews.com/horseracing/thoroughbred/news/2013-04-22/the-2013-kentucky-derby-pretenders-184642
