Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2014 17:55:05 GMT -5
jon how am i bashing? so now when i disagree with them and state why and what makessense to most others, its bashing? what i say makes sense. sorry if its not just an opinion like theirs. bashing is when you are still whining about and talking badly about someone OR SOMETHING a year later, even though what you are whining about has no conclusive evidence and is only your opinion.
ya know everytime you say something like this, i say fine, i wont post. but thats now what you want either. you want me to post and agreee with your east coast bias, santa anita and bob baffert hating opinions. sorry, not gonna happen. regardless of what the thre of you want to say or claim, i am way less biased about these things then you guys are. you post every article you can find that is disparaging to the west coast. am i not supposed to defend it when most of them are bullshit? do i argues with all of them? no, i dont.
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lt1
Moderator
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Post by lt1 on Oct 26, 2014 18:38:42 GMT -5
Why oh why are you folks going nuts over speed bias. It is a fact that most races run in North America regardless of the track are won by horses in the top 4 at the 1st call. Oh sure a closer will jump up and win one when as Wiz pointed out the race is loaded with speed and falls apart. The job of the handicapper is to establish a projected pace for the race and match the horses up against each other. Break the horses down by running styles. Who gets the lead?. Can any other early horse pressure it. If not they are out. Do the same with the ep and pressers. Can they force the front runner to run faster then it is capable of. If not you are looking at a very possible wtw victory. Doesn't matter if they are running at Bel,SAR,SA or on cement. It's all in the matchup.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2014 19:23:43 GMT -5
thank you lt1. couldmt have said it better.
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Jon
Administrator
Posts: 4,669
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Post by Jon on Oct 26, 2014 19:53:48 GMT -5
LT - The voice of reason! TY
Untrue about the articles Wiz - Ev posts w/e is newsworthy and works hard to find interesting things. Think she posts more bad stuff about NY LOl Yeah - I loathe Baffert - So what?
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Oct 26, 2014 20:28:43 GMT -5
of course it is bullshit. just another excuse easterners use when they get beat. as i have tried to explain before, if all tracks were fair, then speed would win the majority of the races at all of them because speed horses are better horses. they do all the work to set races up for closers when the closers do win. and if left alone to run their own style races and not dueled into the ground, a speed horse will beat a closer 80% of the time because they control the race and the pace of it. but some want to continuosly argue this so they have a built in excuse. Wiz I am impressed. For once you say something that is an absolute truth. As Wayne Lucas once said when asked what is the three main things you look for in a race horse his reply was "speed, speed and speed". lol. My handicapping is base around determining the speed or pace of the race and whether he can get beat by a closer. If he don't have the class to last then can get beat. If he outclasses the field or is on even class as the field then typically he will last. It's elementary Watson!. lol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2014 21:06:41 GMT -5
im not going to get into a fight here or am i here to teach a handicapping class, but once again you fail to differentiate between class and speed. they are not the same thing and one has little to do with the other.
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Oct 26, 2014 21:18:24 GMT -5
I thought that I did differentiate between class and speed. Basically I said that class rules fundamentally but class with speed or pace (pace - meaning can hang off the lead by a few lengths in fast fractions) rules over class come from behind. So all you have to do is evaluate each horse based on class level then on speed/pace level and go from there. But this analysis is based only on percentages like you said that 80% of speed will always beat a come from behind given they are at the same class given that they have no other issues in the race. On the other hand there are always class horses that can run off the pace consistently and beat speed/pace horses. You have to figure out which ones are those.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2014 21:21:18 GMT -5
nevermind. my time is more important then this. i could die sometime between now and 2040. im not wasting any of it on this.
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Nostradamus
Active Member
man man your time is sand, I am the eyes of Nostradamus all your ways are known to me.
Posts: 1,553
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Post by Nostradamus on Oct 28, 2014 22:22:24 GMT -5
2040? Boy you sure are optimistic. lol.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2014 1:46:16 GMT -5
i said could. who knows? but i know what im hoping for and it has nothing to do with me. hoprfully you will get runover tomorow by the short bus while you and your wife are getting picked up for your monthly field trip to the zoo. night night rainman, night night.
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